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Tuley's Takes Today: Sunday recap, updated betting stats, Monday Best Bet 4/25

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN senior reporter) 

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Sunday was another day of great sports betting action in the Tuley’s Takes home office.

Lately, we’ve been crushing it with our Best Bet of the day and then our secondary picks haven’t been faring as well.

The bad news is that we lost our Best Bet on Sunday as the Bulls (+ 4.5) got blown out by the Bucks. That dropped us to 46-24-1 ATS (65.7 percent) with our top play of the day the past 71 days.

However, we hope readers stuck with us as the good news is I personally still had a winning day as we won our second-Best Bet on the Breakers-Bandits Under 40.5 in the lone USFL game of the day, split 2-2 on our MLB bets 2-2 (which comes out as a profit since we’re playing underdogs with the Rockies + 115 at the Tigers and Brewers + 150 at the Phillies cashing for us) and then swept out NHL 1P Over 1.5 plays as the Oilers-Blue Jackets, Red Wings-Devils, Lightning-Panthers and Maple Leafs-Capitals all came in.

Yep, it’s crazy how these things work sometimes, but we hope everyone had a winning day even though we lost our top pick.

Let’s recap the rest of Sunday’s betting action and try to find a winning best bet on Monday along with some other plays. As I said on “The Lookahead” with my VSiN colleague Scott Seidenberg on Sunday night, I don’t like any of the zig-zag plays in the NBA on Monday night as all three are home favorites (Nets, 76ers and Mavericks), so we have to look to the diamond.

Sunday’s recaps

NBA: Faves/dogs and home/road (all 4 road teams favored) went 2-2 SU and ATS on Sunday. Upsets were by the Nuggets (+ 5 in 126-121 win vs. Warriors) and Pelicans (+ 2 in 118-103 win vs. Suns). The Bucks (-4.5 in 119-95 rout at Bulls) and Heat (-1 in 110-86 rout at Hawks) easily covered as chalk in their wins. Over/Unders split 2-2.

More NBA: Faves still lead 20-11 SU and 17-14 ATS (54.8 percent) in the 1st round. Home teams lead 18-13 SU, but road teams lead 16-15 ATS (higher seeds are 10-5 ATS in Games 3-4 on road). Zig-zag teams went 3-1 ATS on Sunday with wins by Nuggets, Heat and Pelicans (all coming off SU losses in the previous game) and the loss by the Bulls, and now lead 12-11 ATS overall after going 8-3 ATS the past 3 days. Unders still lead 18-13 (58.1 percent).

USFL: Breakers (+ 2.5) routed Bandits 34-3 Sunday to wrap up Week 2 as the game stayed Under the betting total of 39.5 points. Faves, who went 3-1 SU and 2-1-1 ATS on the weekend, lead 6-2 SU and 5-2-1 ATS overall on the young season. Over/Unders split 2-2 on the weekend, but Unders still lead 5-3.

MLB: Faves went 8-7 w/ biggest upsets by Pirates (+ 140 in 4-3 win at Cubs) and Reds (+ 135 in 4-1 win vs. Cardinals as they snapped an 11-game losing streak). Home teams also went 8-7. Overs went 8-6-1 with the push in the Mets' 6-2 win at Diamondbacks (betting total of 8).

More MLB: Faves went 8-7 on Sunday and lead 142-93 SU (60.4 percent) on the young season with 2 games closing pick-'em. Home teams also went 8-7 and still lead 124-113 over road teams, which led 65-63 just 8 days ago. Unders went 6-8-1 to drop below 60 percent on season at 134-90-13 (59.8 percent).

NHL: Underdogs went 7-4 with the biggest upsets by the Sharks (+ 300 in 5-4 shootout win at Golden Knights), Blue Jackets (+ 210 in 5-2 win vs. Oilers) and Flyers (+ 215 in 4-1 win vs. Penguins). Overs went 7-3-1 with the push in the Maple Leafs' 4-3 OT win at the Capitals (total of 7).

Monday’s Takes

Angels + 108 vs. the Guardians: We’re taking a short MLB underdog as our Best Bet of the day. The Angels avoided getting swept by the Orioles, but their offense is still hitting better than the Guardians, who were just swept by the Yankees in New York (scoring just 7 runs in 3 games) and now have to fly out to the West Coast. I also like the Angels’ Michael Lorenzen 1-1, 4.82 ERA but 0.86 WHIP) to keep the Guardians slumping and match Shane Bieber inning for inning. On a short MLB card, we also like the Rockies again at + 165 at the Phillies. Less ambitious bettors might opt for the Rockies + 105 on the run line.

NHL 1P Overs: No play on Monday, even though the Flyers-Blackhawks game (the only NHL game of the night) has a game total of 6.5 as both teams are barely Over .500 with 1P Over plays on the season and not worthy of laying -145.

Tuesday: As also mentioned on “The Lookahead,” the Reds are in a swagger spot against the Padres on Tuesday after snapping an 11-game losing streak on Sunday. We’ll update the line (and decide if we prefer the + 1.5 on the run line) in Tuesday’s column.

Wednesday: We also recommended taking the Nuggets + 9 at the Warriors in Game 5 on Wednesday. The Warriors are in a zig-zag role, but they’re also an anti-swagger play as they had an 8-game winning streak snapped on Sunday. We usually don’t see these plays carry over into the playoffs, but while everyone else is expecting the Warriors to close out the series at home after dropping Game 4 on the road, I’m counting on the Nuggets at least keeping this close. We’ll see where the line moves in the next couple of days.

Good luck today (and every day!).

 

 

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