Tuley's Takes Today: Sunday recap, updated ATS stats, Monday Best Bets 6/6

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN senior reporter) 

June 6, 2022 04:35 AM
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Sunday was a day to catch up on sleep in the Tuley’s Takes home office as we were coming down from a very busy week with our daily columns but also taking time to celebrate our middle daughter Peyton graduating from high school (two down and one to go as our son Maddux is entering 8th grade in the fall and will be in the high school Class of 2027).

We spent most of the day watching sports, which was fun, but what wasn’t as fun was going 0-3 with our three wagers (supposedly our Best Bets of the day, but they certainly didn’t turn out that way.

In the morning, we lost with our USFL play on the Panthers-Stars Under 47.5 as the Stars exploded to nearly reach the total themselves in a 46-24 victory. Our mid-day play (noon PT start) on the Rangers + 150 at Lightning was looking pretty good with the Rangers leading 2-1 at the end of the 2nd period, but the Lightning showed the heart of a two-time defending champion and rallied for a 3-2 victory.

Our top play was on the Celtics + 4.5 at the Warriors, and again was looking pretty good as they only trailed by 2 at halftime, but the Warriors outscored the Celtics 35-14 in the third quarter to pull away.

The silver lining is I cut my NBA and NHL bets in half compared to earlier games in their series as I had my doubts. I hope followers followed suit, though what I really wish is that I had the will-power to pass on those games. I guess I’m guilty of having a degenerate side sometimes, but since I’m 8-2 ATS the past 10 days with my top play of the day, I can’t beat myself up too much.

Let’s recap the rest of Sunday’s betting results and try to get back on the track on Monday.

Sunday’s recaps

NBA: Warriors used a huge 3rd Quarter to pull away and rout Celtics 107-88 to even the NBA Finals at 1-1. The Warriors also easily covered as 4.5-point home favorites as the game stayed way Under the betting total of 213.5 points. Warriors also covered in the zig-zag role after losing Game 1.

More NBA: Faves/dogs are now 1-1 SU and ATS in Finals. Faves lead 55-28 SU and 48-35 ATS (57.8 percent) overall. Home/road are also 1-1 SU and ATS in Finals while home teams now lead 50-33 SU but just 43-40 ATS (51.8 percent) overall. The zig-zig starts the Finals at 1-0 ATS and is 38-30 ATS (55.9 percent) overall. Over/Unders are 1-1 in Finals while Unders lead 49-34 (59 percent) overall.

NHL: Lightning rallied to beat Rangers 3-2 to pull within 2-1 in the Eastern Conference Finals. The Lightning were a -185 home favorite and the game stayed Under the betting total of 5.5 goals.

More NHL: Faves improved to 4-2 in conference finals round and now lead 51-28 overall. Home teams improved to 5-1 this round and 49-30 overall. Unders improved to 4-2 in the round, but Overs still lead 42-35-2 (54.5 percent) overall.

MLB: Faves/dogs split 7-7 on Sunday with the biggest upsets by the Twins (+ 215 in 8-6 win at Blue Jays), Mets (+ 160 in 5-4 win at Dodgers), Nationals (+ 163 in 5-4 win at Reds) and Pirates (+ 130 in 3-0 win vs. Diamondbacks). Road teams dominated at 12-3. Overs went 8-6-1 with the push in the Mets-Dodgers game with a betting total of 9 runs.

More MLB: Faves are 480-311 SU (60.7 percent) with 17 games closing pick-'em (faves usually win about 59 percent, so faves ahead of that pace). Home teams dropped to 415-394 (51.3 percent, but usually closer to 54%). Unders lead 400-370-38 (51.9 percent), way down from 60 percent just over a month ago.

USFL: Stars (-5.5) routed Panthers 46-24 (game went Over 47.5) and Bandits (-5) beat Gamblers 13-3 (Under 44.5) on Sunday. Faves went 2-0 SU and ATS on the day while Over/Unders split 1-1. Faves finished 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS in Week 8 with Over/Unders splitting 2-2. For the season, faves are 24-8 SU (75 percent) but only 17-14-1 ATS (54.8 percent). Overs lead 19-13 (59.4 percent).

Monday’s Takes

Avalanche-Oilers Under 6.5 + 120: I gave this out Sunday night on “The Lookahead” (my usual spot at 10:15 p.m. ET/7:15 p.m. PT, so 15 minutes into the archived version), though some books were still dealing Under 7 but with -120 or more juice. We’re 2-1 in this series by going contrarian with so many people assuming Overs and sticking with the plan even after the 8-6 win by the Avalanche in Game 1. I still feel good about the Under, though my one concern is that the Oilers could pull their goalie even earlier than usual if trailing in the 3rd period as they have nothing to lose. But, again as me and Greg Peterson were discussing, Game 3 was a stone-cold Under and still cashed despite 3 goals in the 3rd period, including an empty-net goal. Note: we’re also planning to take the Rangers + 150 in Tuesday’s Game 4 at the Lightning, but more on that tomorrow.

MLB dogs: We’ve been treading lightly lately with our baseball plays as we didn’t like the dogs in the weekend series (we felt really good about it when faves went 12-3 on Friday, though we missed out on some dogs the past two days. It’s a small card on Monday, but we’re going to take the Padres/Snell -105 vs. the Mets and the Red Sox/Wacha + 110 at the Angels. Note: the Angels are on a 11-game losing streak, so that’s part of the reason we’re fading them on Monday, but beware that when they snap their skid that they’ll be a big-time swagger play in their next game. The A’s are on a 6-game losing streak, so we’re keeping an eye on them, as well as the Yankees on a 6-game winning streak as an anti-swagger candidate in the game after their streak is snapped.

NBA: With the Celtics -3.5 in the zig-zag role in Wednesday’s Game 3, I’m planning to pass at this time and let my series bet ride. We have a few days to decide for sure what we want to do.

Good luck today (and every day!).

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