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Tuley's Takes Today: Sunday recap, NFL Monday (and MLB) picks (10-11)

By Dave Tuley  ( senior reporter) 

October 11, 2021 01:59 AM

With no NFL games in London last year, we in the Tuley’s Takes home office forgot how long these days are when we start with a game in London at 6:30 p.m. PT and go pretty much non-stop for 15 hours until the Sunday Night Football Game ends around 9:30 p.m. PT – and then later as we do our Twitter recaps @ViewFromVegas and put together this column.

It was all worth it, financially as well as entertainment-wise. Of course, we’re more interested in the betting results. We pretty much split our best bets for NFL Week 5 in our regular “Tuley’s Takes” column in Point Spread Weekly and here in these daily updates, going 2-2-1 ATS, but we again came out ahead overall thanks to our teaser portfolio that we also laid out in our columns.

We lost most of our teasers with the Seahawks on Thursday night, but then on Sunday our only losing teaser plays were those that included the Washington Football Team (33-22 losers to the Saints, so + 8.5 on teasers didn’t get there), but any other teaser combos using the Jets, Vikings, Browns, Cowboys and Bills all came through (and we also have some live tickets to the Ravens -1 on Monday Night Football).

We didn’t have an MLB underdog play on Sunday, which is good as the Red Sox and White Sox both prevailed as short home faves.

Let’s get to our general recaps, and then look at Monday’s best bets.

Sunday’s recaps

NFL: Bills beat the Chiefs 38-20 on Sunday Night Football to wrap up a looong day of action that started in London at 9:30 a.m. ET/6:30 a.m. PT. The Bills closed as 3-point road underdogs and the game went just Over the closing total of 57 points. Faves went 10-4 SU and 8-6 ATS on the day and are 11-4 SU and 9-6 ATS so far in Week 5, including Thursday Night Football, heading into Monday Night Football. Road teams went 7-6 SU and ATS Sunday (London game not included) and lead 8-6 SU and ATS for the week. Overs went 9-5 on the day, but 9-6 on the week. 

More NFL: The day kicked off with the Falcons beating Jets 27-20 as they also covered as 3-point neutral-site favorites. The game went Over the betting total of 45.5 points on the Jets' late FG to get within one score and set up an unsuccessful onside kick). After the early session of games (1 p.m. PT/10 a.m. PT kickoffs), faves were 7-2 SU and 5-4 ATS, including the Packers covering in a wild 25-22 OT win at the Bengals after closing as 2.5-point road favorites. The outright upsets were by Eagles (+ 2.5 at Panthers) and the Steelers (+ 1.5 vs. Broncos). The Lions and Texans were the two teams to cover in SU losses. Overs were 6-3 after the early games. In the afternoon games, faves went 3-1 SU and ATS with the only upset by the Bears (+ 5.5 at the Raiders.

MLB: White Sox beat the Astros 12-6 Sunday night to avoid elimination and pull within 2-1 in their ALDS. The game went Over the betting total of 8.5. In the earlier ALDS game, the Red Sox beat the Rays in 13 innings to take a 2-1 lead in their series. That game also went Over 8.5 runs. Faves, home teams and Overs all went 2-0 on Sunday. Faves lead 7-3 in this round. Home teams are also 7-3. Over/Unders now tied at 5-5.

Contest Corner

Circa Sports Million Top 5 Most-Selected Teams went 3-2 in NFL Week 5 with wins on the Titans -4.5, Chargers -2 and Bills + 2.5; losses were on the Panthers -3 (as the No. 1 choice) and 49ers + 5.5. Circa Top 5 is still hitting 60 percent at 15-10 through five weeks. 

Circa Survivor had 1,343 contestants (Week 5’s top choice by far) sweating out the Vikings’ game as the Lions took a 17-16 lead on a TD and 2-point conversion with :37 left, but the Vikings won on Greg Joseph’s 54-yard FG as time expired. Another 443 lucked out with the Patriots as they trailed the Texans 22-9 in the third quarter, but rallied to win 25-22. There were only 64 eliminations on Sunday (54 on Raiders, 6 on Panthers, 1 on Bengals and 1 on Jets), so 2,269 are still alive with 253 having the Ravens on Monday Night Football.

SuperContest Top 5 Most-Selected Teams went 3-1-1 in NFL Week 5 (back to .500 on season at 12-12-1) with wins on the Chargers -1.5, Titans -4.5 and Bills + 2.5. The lone loss was 49ers + 5.5, the No. 1 choice, and the push was on Bengals + 3. SuperContest Gold Top 5 went 2-2-1 (12-12-2 on season) with wins on Chargers -1.5 and Eagles + 3.5. Losses were on 49ers + 5.5 and Chiefs -2.5 with push on Bengals + 3.

Monday’s Takes

Brewers (+ 100) at Braves: We get a quadruple-header of MLB playoff games on Monday, and the underdog I like best is the Brewers in the first game at 1:07 p.m. ET/10:07 a.m. PT. The teams split the two games in Milwaukee and now the series moves to Atlanta with the Braves a very short home fave of -110. I like the matchup of Milwaukee’s Freddy Peralta (10-5, 2.81 ERA, 0.97 WHIP) vs. Atlanta’s Ian Anderson (9-5, 3.58 ERA, 1.23 WHIP).

Colts (+ 7) at Ravens on MNF, though used Ravens -1 in teasers: This line has been pretty solid all week, though we’re seeing indicators that it could go to 7.5 with so much support for the favored Ravens if books are willing to move off the key number. We’re still waiting to see if we’ll get the + 7.5 as we like Carson Wentz and the Colts to be able to stay within a touchdown. In addition, we also have a couple of live teasers to the Ravens -1, so our best scenario is for the Ravens to win by 2 to 6 points (7 if we get the hook!).

Good luck today (and every day!).


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