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Tuley's Takes Today: Sunday recap, Contest Corner, Takeaways, MNF best bet (12/13)

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN.com senior reporter) 

December 13, 2021 01:38 AM
Matthew_Stafford_Cardinals

It’s been a long time since we’ve seen a worse day than Sunday here in the Tuley’s Takes home office.

Oh, we’ve gone 1-4 ATS with our best bets before, but it’s not often that you see favorites go 11-1 SU and 10-2 ATS with so many dogs getting blown out (7 lost by 15 or more, so more than two TDs) and most of the others failing to get in the back door.

And let’s not kid ourselves: our lone winning best bet was on the Ravens at + 2.5 and + 3 as they trailed the Browns 24-3 and looked dead with Lamar Jackson out and replaced by Tyler Huntley. But they somehow rallied to get the back-door cover at 24-22 to at least save some face. The final TD also helped us hit our biggest bet of the day, our top two-team, 6-point teaser on the Ravens + 8.5/Bengals + 7.5 (we lucked out on the second leg of that bet, too). In fact, we’ve written several times this year that teasers have helped us to our biggest winning days and cut our losses on our losing days, and we’ve still alive with other teasers using the Ravens, Bengals and Seahawks (as given out here) to the Rams + 8.5 on Monday Night Football. If we hit all those, we’ll actually come out ahead overall on the weekend.

So, I guess that’s the silver lining, but again only if the Rams come through for us on MNF. Before making that official as our best bet of the day (and hopefully make some money for some readers who aren’t alive with us on teasers heading into the game), let’s recap all the big betting action from a chalk-filled Sunday (hey, the chalk even covered in the CFL’s Grey Cup!), including a Contest Corner update on the big handicapping contests in Vegas, and then my takeaways from Sunday’s action.

Sunday’s recaps

NFL: Packers rallied in 2nd half to rout Bears 45-30, covering as 12-point home favorites (game flew Over 43 points) and improving faves 11-1 SU and 10-2 ATS on Sunday. The lone upset was by the Falcons (+ 2.5 in 29-21 win at Panthers) while the Ravens (+ 3 in 24-22 loss at Browns) was the only other underdog to cover all day long. Home teams went 7-5 SU on the day but just 6-6 ATS. Overs went 8-4.

More NFL: Including Thursday Night Football, NFL faves are 12-1 SU and 11-2 ATS so far in Week 14, home teams are 8-5 SU and 7-6 ATS while Overs are 9-4. Faves are 124-79-1 SU on the season with 3 games closing pick-’em, but dogs still lead 108-95-1 ATS (53.2 percent). Road teams still lead 104-99-1 SU with 3 neutral-site games and 115-88-1 ATS (56.7 percent). Unders lead 113-92-2 (55.1 percent).

Even more NFL: In Sunday’s early games, faves went 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS with the aforementioned Falcons and Ravens the only dogs to cover. The Falcons were the right side after overcoming an early 7-0 deficit, but the Ravens needed to rally from a 24-3 deficit with Tyler Huntley replacing the injured Lamar Jackson to get their unlikely back-door cover. Road teams were 4-3 SU and 5-2 ATS in the early games with the Chiefs and Titans the only home teams to cover. Overs went 4-3. In the “afternoon session,” it looked like most of the games that the faves were going to go 4-0 SU and ATS. The Broncos (-12.5 vs. Lions) and Chargers (-9 vs. Giants) did coast to easy covers, but the Buccaneers (-3.5 vs. Bills) and 49ers (-1.5 at Bengals) both squandered big leads and had to go to overtime. But then the 49ers beat the Bengals 26-23 in OT on Brandon Aiyuk’s TD and the Bucs beat the Bills 33-27 in OT on Tom Brady's 58-yard TD pass to Breshad Perriman to both cover and make faves 4-0 SU and ATS after all. Home teams went 3-1 SU and ATS in those afternoon games with the 49ers to lone road fave. Overs went 3-1.

CFL: Winnipeg Blue Bombers rallied to beat the Hamilton Tiger-Cats 33-25 in OT to win their 2nd straight GreyCup. Winnipeg also ended up covering as a 2.5-point favorite and the game went Over the betting total of 44 points on Winnipeg's FG to go ahead 24-22 late in the 4th quarter.

NBA: Faves went 5-1 SU and ATS Sunday with the only upset by the Timberwolves (+ 3 in 116-111 win at Blazers). Bucks (-6), Nets (-7), Spurs (-2), Mavericks (-4) and Lakers (-9.5) all covered. Unders went 4-2 on the day. Dogs still lead 47-36-1 ATS (56.7 percent) in December with 1 pick-'em. Unders lead 216-182-6 (54.3 percent) on the season, but Overs still lead 45-38-2 (54.2 percent) in December.

CBB: No. 1 Purdue beat North Carolina State 82-72 in OT after rallying from a 13-point, 2nd-half deficit, but did NOT cover as a 14.5-point favorite; No. 2 Baylor (-5) easily covered in a 57-36 rout of No. 6 Villanova and is expected to be No. 1 in new AP Poll.

NHL: Dogs went 3-2 Sunday with upsets by the Ducks (+ 114 at Blues), Predators (+ 120 at Rangers) and Canucks (smallest of dogs at -105 vs. Hurricanes). Unders went 4-1 with the lone Over in the Golden Knights' 6-4 win vs. the Wild. Note: VGK was also the only fave to cover the -1.5 puck line on Sunday.

Contest Corner

None of the 23 live entries in Circa Survivor were eliminated in NFL Week 14 (Week 15 of the contest, including "Thanksgiving Week"). The Broncos (9), Chargers (6), Titans (4), Seahawks (2), Saints (1) and Packers (1) all won for Survivors as they move onto Week 15.

Circa Sports Million Top 5 Most-Selected Teams are 1-3 so far in NFL Week 14 (dropping to 36-33 on the season) with the Cardinals -2.5 pending on Monday Night Football. The lone win was on the Ravens + 3 with losses on Washington Football Team + 4.5, Bills + 3.5 and Bengals + 1.5.

SuperContest Top 5 Most-Selected Teams are 1-3 so far in NFL Week 14 (dropping to 31-37-1 on the season) with the Cardinals -2.5 on Monday Night Football. The lone win was on the Broncos -8.5 with losses on the Bills + 3.5, Browns -2.5 and Washington Football Team + 4. SuperContest Gold Top 5 went 2-3 in Week 14 (dropping to 38-33-2 on the season) with wins on the Broncos -8.5 and Cowboys -4 but losses on Browns -2.5, Bills + 3.5 and Giants + 10.

Tuley’s Takeaways

1. We’ve written several times that we compile our betting stats across the major sports not only to show the hot trends for those who wish to jump in, but also to show that these things usually even out over the long run. Well, chalk bettors and Over players got some revenge in Week 14 after getting beat up most of the season.

2. The one thing that really surprised me is that when the favorites have a big day like Sunday, the public usually has a big day and the consensus plays in the major contests usually do very well. However, this Sunday, the Top 5 Most-Selected Teams in both the Circa Sports Millions and Westgate SuperContest went 1-3 ATS. For some reason – and part of it is because dogs have been barking so much this season – the majority of contest players relied on the underdogs and got burned with the Washington Football Team, the Bills and the Bengals at Circa and the Bills and Washington at the Westgate (the other loser in the SuperContest was the Browns -2.5, a popular play as the line was -3 at Circa).

3. Another silver lining from a disastrous week like week is that we should get fair prices on our underdogs, especially this week as chalk bettors should be flush with cash and ready to fire back again thinking they’ve found the secret to accumulating holiday cash. I didn’t bet any Week 15 dogs on the opening numbers Sunday night because I expect nearly all of them to get higher during the week. I’ll make my picks official in Point Spread Weekly that comes out on Wednesday, but I can tell you that I’m already considering the Chargers + 3.5 vs. the Chiefs on Thursday, Raiders + 6.5 at the Browns on Saturday, Patriots teased up over a TD at the Colts on Saturday, Football Team + 4 at Eagles, Giants + 11 vs. Cowboys, Lions + 14 vs. Cardinals, Falcons + 8.5 at 49ers, Bengals teased up to + 7.5 at the Broncos and Saints + 11.5 at Buccaneers. Let’s see if I’m right about these lines getting bet higher.

Monday’s Take

Two-team, 6-point teaser with Rams + 8.5/Over 45: This play is for those who didn’t follow us on our teaser recommendations from PSW, the NFL Best Bets column at VSiN.com and this daily column as we gave out the Ravens, Bengals (actually gave out 49ers as teaser play in PSW and then flipped to Bengals when the 49ers were bet to favoritism, but predicted both sides would cash anyway) and Seahawks as advantage teasers that captures the key numbers of 3 and 7 and could have been used with the Rams on Monday night. We’re counting on the Rams to not let the Cardinals blow them out like they did 37-20 in their first meeting, but also adding the teaser with the Over as this should go flying Over again.

Good luck today (and every day!).

 

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