Tuley's Takes Today: Sunday recap, Contest Corner, Monday best bets (12/27)

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN.com senior reporter) 

Sean_Payton

Sunday wasn’t a good day for NFL underdog bettors as chalk went 8-2 SU and 7-3 ATS with 2 pick-’ems (9-3 SU and 8-4 ATS if grading with the Patriots and Raiders favored as they were all week). However, we are still showing a profit for the weekend – especially if you include college bowls – in the Tuley’s Takes home office (where I watched Sunday’s action as I was too stuffed and exhausted from Christmas Day with the family to head out) with a chance to come out further ahead on Monday Night Football.

Even though we went 2-3 ATS on Sunday with wins on the Lions and Bears and losses on the Panthers, Vikings and Steelers, we won with the Titans on Thursday and the Browns on Saturday to go 4-3 ATS with our best bets (full disclosure: we did lose with a Chargers-Texans Under 46 bet that we added in this column).

We did lose our top teaser play from Point Spread Weekly on Ravens + 8.5 and Bills + 8.5; however, if you followed this daily version of this column, when the line moved to Bengals -7, I no longer recommended playing it that way and said the preferred teaser (going through the key numbers of 3 and 7) was now Bengals -1 and Bills + 7.5 (as that line had dropped) and that won. I also used the Bills during the middle of the week to the Chiefs -2.5 and tonight’s Saints + 8.5.

So, before getting to tonight’s action (and an early bowl kickoff on Monday morning), let’s recap Sunday’s action, including an update of the NFL season-long betting records and a peek into Contest Corner for a Circa Survivor update and the new leaderboards in the other top Vegas handicapping contests.

Sunday’s recaps

NFL: Cowboys (-10) routed Washington Football Team 56-14 on Sunday Night Football. Game flew Over the betting total of 56 points. Faves went 8-2 SU and 7-3 ATS on Sunday with 2 games closing pick-'em (Bills-Patriots and Broncos-Raiders) while home teams went 8-4 SU and 7-5 ATS and Overs led 9-3. So far in Week 16, faves lead 9-4 SU and 7-6 ATS, home teams 10-5 SU and 8-7 ATS, Overs 9-6.

More NFL: Faves are 145-88-1 SU on the season w/ 5 games closing pick-'em, but dogs still lead 122-110-2 ATS (52.6 percent). Road teams season-long lead is down to 118-117-1 SU with 3 neutral-site games while they still have a nice lead at 130-104-2 ATS (55.6 percent). Unders dipped to 130-107-2 (54.9 percent) while primetime Unders dropped to 27-21-1 after a 1-8 start, so primetime Unders are still 26-13-1 (6 percent) since then.

Even more NFL: In Sunday’s early games, faves went 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS with Bills-Patriots closing pick-’em and the upset being the Texans’ 41-29 win over the Chargers as the biggest underdog of the week at + 13 and + 500 on the money line. Home teams went 5-3 SU in the early games but split 4-4 ATS as Overs went 6-2. In the afternoon session, faves and dogs split 1-1 SU and ATS with Broncos-Raiders closing PK. The upset was by the Bears + 7 as they went for 2 after their last TD and got it for a 25-24 win at the Seahawks). The Chiefs (-10) routed the Steelers 36-10. Home teams went 2-1 SU and ATS in the afternoon while Overs were 2-1.

NBA: Faves went 7-1 SU on Sunday but just 5-3 ATS as the Magic (+ 10.5 in 93-83 loss at Heat) and Clippers (+ 3.5 in 103-100 loss vs. Nuggets) covered in losses. The lone upset was by the Thunder (+ 1.5 in 117-112 win vs. Pelicans). Overs went 5-3.

CFB: There were no bowl games on Sunday (and we had 3 future games canceled with the Military, Fenway and Sun), but just a reminder that faves are 10-5 SU this bowl season with 1 pick-'em (Western Kentucky-Appalachian State) while dogs lead 8-7 ATS. Overs are 10-6 after snapping a 3-game Under streak on Saturday.

Contest Corner

Circa Survivor is down to 5 live entries playing for the $6 million guaranteed prize pool as 4 were eliminated with the Chargers' 41-29 loss at the Texans on Sunday as contestants had to submit a Week 16 Sunday/Monday play by 9 a.m. PT Sunday after surviving “Christmas Week” that just included Thursday and Saturday’s games. There were 3 that advanced with the Eagles and 2 on the Falcons (who also survived a scare), including RETURN OF SURVIVOR-5, who would have won the whole thing on Saturday if the Packers had lost to the Browns.

Circa Sports Million Top 5 Most-Selected Teams are 2-2 so far in Week 16 (42-37 on the season) after wins by the Bengals -3 and Bills + 2 on Sunday after losses by the Cardinals + 1 and Packers -7 on Saturday. The last Top 5 play of the week is the Dolphins pick-'em vs. the Saints on Monday Night Football.

CircaSportsMillion leader HANNIBAL BARCA-1 went 2-3 in Week 16 but still leads at 57-23 (71.3 percent) with 2 weeks to go. His HANNIBAL BARCA-2 entry is also in a 3-way tie for 2nd at 56-24 (70 percent) with DURBIFY-1 and MFC INC-1. DURBIFY-2 is alone in 5th at 55-25 (68.8 percent), though JJarvis117 and Mad Russian could tie him in 5th place if Dolphins pick-’em wins on MNF.

SuperContest Top 5 Most-Selected Teams are 2-2 so far in Week 16 (36-42-1 on season) with MIA + 3 pending on Monday Night Football. Wins were on the Bengals -2.5 and Bills + 2.5 while losses were on the Cardinals (-1) and Chargers -10. SuperContest Gold Top 5 is 2-3 (43-37-2) with Dolphins + 3 pending. Broncos pick-’em and Washington + 11 were tied for the No. 5 pick, resulting in an extra game this week and a third extra game in the season-long record.

SuperContest has a new leader in LITOFSKY CLAN at 54-23-2 (70.1 percent) with Dolphins + 3 pending on MNF. NOMSNAIGANSKK is in sole possession of 2nd place at 53-26-1 (67.1 percent). Defending champ OBDMG is tied for 3rd at 53-27 (66.3 percent). SuperContest Gold leader CALABASAS WISE GUY has a 7-point lead at 54-23-2 (70.1 percent) plus the Dolphins + 3 on MNF.

Monday’s Takes

Nevada + 7 vs. Western Michigan: Don’t get shut out as this game kicks at 11 a.m. ET and 8 a.m. PT here in Vegas. We know Nevada QB Carson Strong is sitting out the Quick Lane Bowl and that’s why the Wolf Pack is an underdog here, but Nevada is still the better overall team so I’ll take the points.

Saints + 3.5 vs. Dolphins: As stated above, I have some teasers to the Saints + 8.5 after there was a change of favorite after it was announced Taysom Hill and Trevor Siemian would be out for the Saints and Ian Book making his first NFL start. I think the line has been overadjusted, especially since New Orleans coach Sean Payton has a lot of experience at getting backup QBs ready to play, but bettors are still backing the Dolphins and it looks like we’re going to be able to add Saints + 3.5 on Monday as some books are already there with added juice.  

Happy holidays to all of our readers

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