Sunday was mostly spent watching baseball but also catching up on chores around the house, primarily cleaning our pool.
You see, I had done a pretty good job of cleaning earlier in the week because I knew I had to shock it pretty hard so it didn’t turn green while I was taking my daughter Peyton to her freshman orientation at University of Nevada-Reno. However, as I’m sure everyone has heard by now, there were severe thunderstorms here in Vegas while we were gone. As is usually the case when we get a rare storm, there were tons of leaves and dirt in our pool, and this time one of our garbage cans was blown into the pool, adding to the mess. I had to vacuum the pool, shock it, vacuum and shock a second time. Not how I wanted to spend a good portion of the day, but ya gotta do what ya gotta do.
The task would have been more tolerable if we didn’t lose our Best Bet on the Marlins 1st 5 + 130 vs. the Mets as the Mets beat up the Marlins’ Pablo Lopez and led 7-1 after the first 5 innings. However, we did win our secondary play on the Royals 1st 5 + 234 at the Yankees. The game was scoreless through the first 4 innings, but then the Royals broke through with 4 runs in the top of the 5th. The Yankees responded with 3 runs in the bottom half of the inning, but the Royals held on for a 4-3 lead. In addition, we also cashed on the Royals on the full-game money line as they beat the Yankees 8-6, so we came out ahead on the day despite losing our supposed top pick.
Let’s recap the rest of Sunday’s (full-game) betting results and look for more 1st 5 inning opportunities on Monday’s card since we’ve been having so much success with them lately. In addition, I have an early play on Thursday’s Hall of Fame Game that I gave out on VSiN’s “The Lookahead” show on Sunday night (15 minutes into the archived version if you want to check that out).
Sunday’s recaps
MLB: Faves went 11-4 Sunday. Upsets were by the Royals (+ 234 in 8-6 win at Yankees to snap 5-game losing streak), Guardians (+ 200 in 5-3 win at Rays), Red Sox (+ 127 in 7-2 win vs. Brewers) and Rangers (+ 114 in 5-2 win at Angels). Home teams went 8-7. Unders dominated 11-4.
More MLB: Faves lead 906-599 SU (60.2 percent) on the season with 25 pick-'ems (faves usually win around 59 percent; still ahead of pace; gap had been narrowing but now back over 60 percent). Home teams lead just 801-729 (52.4 percent, but usually closer to 54 percent). Unders lead 757-701-70 (51.9 percent).
Monday’s Takes
Giants 1st 5 + 110 vs. Dodgers: I like this 1st 5 inning bet the best on Monday’s short card. The Giants have been up-and-down and not as good as they were last year, but they still are good enough to stay with the Dodgers early, especially with Logan Webb (9-4, 2.91 ERA, 1.13 WHIP) starting vs. Andrew Heaney. Most books don’t have 1st 5 lines posted overnight, but we’re expecting to get at least + 110 and hopefully closer to + 120. Our secondary picks have actually been performing a little better lately, and after Sunday’s success with the Royals, I’ll take them again with a 1st 5 wager at around + 140 with KC’s Brad Keller facing Chicago’s Michael Kopech. The last time these two faced on April 28, the Royals led 2-0 after 5 innings.
Raiders-Jaguars Over 32.5 (Thursday): As I also said on "The Lookahead," I'm usually an "Under or pass" guy with NFL preseason games, but since Unders have had so much success in recent years (especially with less time for offenses to prepare and get in sync), we believe this total has been shaded a little too low. I'm not going nuts, but I think there's value with Josh Daniels obviously emphasizing offense and some quality backup QBs. I doubt we'll see much from Derek Carr and Trevor Lawrence, but wouldn't mind seeing former 49ers Nick Mullens (Raiders) and C.J. Beathard (Jaguars) get quality time.
Good luck today (and every day!).