Tuley's Takes Today: Saturday recaps, updated Sunday NFL picks (10-17)

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN.com senior reporter) 

October 17, 2021 05:21 AM

I feel like I’m repeating myself with these intros, but Saturday was another great day to be a sports bettor with more than 13 straight hours of college football, two MLB playoff games and 14 NHL games, and that’s not even counting all the other sports like golf, tennis, soccer, MMA, etc.

Our main action was on college football and I split my four biggest bets 4-4 ATS with Northwestern and Auburn not only covering but pulling outright upsets (which is how we love it) while losing with Virginia Tech and TCU.

I passed on the baseball playoffs, which I regretted as the Red Sox won after losing Game 1 when we had them, but the price wasn’t high enough for our liking. And the same was true of the Braves, who started as short home dogs but closed as the favorites. The price is nicer on the Braves on Sunday, but I’m not interested in fading Max Scherzer, so we’ll stick to football again.

Buf before that, let’s get to the general betting recaps from last night as well as a peak in Contest Corner. When we get to my “takes” for Sunday, we just comment on the line movement of our picks from Point Spread Weekly and try to time when to make our bets. For the reasoning behind why I like these plays, check out the regular “Tuley’s Takes” column in PSW.

Saturday’s recaps

CFB: Purdue upset No. 2 Iowa 24-7 on Saturday as an 11-point road underdog and + 360 on the money line. The game stayed Under the betting total of 42.5 points. In games among ranked teams, No. 1 Georgia (-22) beat No. 11 Kentucky 30-13 but did NOT cover as the Wildcats scored a late TD to get the back-door cover while No. 12 Oklahoma State (+ 3.5, + 145 money line) upset No. 25 Texas 32-24. The biggest upset (by the odds) was UL-Monroe beating Liberty 31-28 as a 33-point underdog and 30-1 on the money line at the South Point here in Las Vegas. While the upset of Iowa was the biggest (by the rankings), four our other ranked teams lost on Saturday: No. 17 Arkansas and No. 20 Florida were upset by Auburn (+ 4.5, + 160 ML) and LSU (+ 12.5, + 375 ML) while No. 18 Arizona St. and No. 19 BYU also lost, but they actually went off as dogs to Utah (-1) and Baylor (-5.5).

MLB: Braves beat the Dodgers 3-2 Saturday night in Game 1 of the National League Championship Series on Austin Riley's walk-off hit in the bottom of the ninth inning. THe Braves did it after closing as short -107 home favorites and the game stayed Under the betting total of 8 runs. Earlier, the Red Sox (+ 100) slammed the Astros 9-5 to even the ALCS at 1-1. The game flew Over the total of 8.5 runs. Faves/dogs, home/road and Over/Unders all split 1-1 on Saturday. Faves, home teams and Overs all lead 2-1 in this round. Faves lead 14-6 in playoffs while home teams lead 13-7 and Overs lead 11-9. If you want to include the two wild-card games, faves are 15-7 overall, home teams are also 15-7 and Overs lead just 11-10-1.

NHL: On the busiest day of the young season, favorites went 9-4 with the Rangers-Canadiens games closing pick-'em. The biggest upsets were by the Blues (+ 130 at Avalanche) and Sharks (+ 117 vs. Jets). Unders went 9-5 on Saturday after Overs were 11-6-2 the first four days of the regular season, so Overs now lead just 16-15-2.

Contest Corner

Circa Sports Million Top 5 Most-Selected Teams (15-10 so far this season) for NFL Week 6 are the Browns -3 vs. the Cardinals, Packers -4.5 at Bears, Cowboys -3.5 at Patriots, Chiefs -6.5 at Washington and Vikings -1 at Panthers. All give are favorites while most of them are line-move plays (as of Saturday afternoon when Circa has its submission deadline, the Browns were up to -3.5, the Packers are -6 at the Bears, the popular Chiefs are up to -7 at a few books and the Vikings are up to -2.5 at the Panthers.

Circa Survivor, with 2,268 alive entering this week had 10 "no picks" to reduce the field to 2,258. More than half the field took the Colts (1,185) while the Rams (385) are No. 2 choice with the Steelers (277) ranking No, 3 and the Chiefs (238) at No. 4. 

The Westgate SuperContest’s Top 5 Most-Selected Teams and plays from all contestants will be released in the morning as their submission deadline isn’t until 11:50 p.m. PT on Saturdays.

Sunday’s Takes

Jaguars + 3 vs. Dolphins in London: We hope you grabbed the + 3.5 the other day when we recommended it, but should still be fine at + 3. The Jags are also playable in teasers, and I’d tie them with your choice of Chiefs -1 at Washington (several books down to Chiefs -6.5, so you can now tease down to -0.5), Panthers + 8.5 vs. Vikings, Chargers + 8.5 at Ravens and Cardinals + 8.5 at Browns (many books up to Browns -3.5, so you can tease the Cards up to 9.5). Note: with the Rams down to -8.5 at the Giants, they’re now teasable down to -2.5.

Texans + 10 at Colts: We advised earlier in the week to grab %pliussign% 10.5 that were available, but they look to be all gone. There are some indicators that this could dip to 9.5, so don’t miss out on the + 10.

Bears + 4.5 vs. Packers: I had back and forth on this game (didn’t include in my five plays on the VSiN NFL Best Bets page in PSW), but with line steaming up to 6 now, it’s definitely one of my bets (though I still left it off most of my contest cards at + 4.5).

Chargers + 3 at Ravens, plus Chargers in teasers: I’ve been telling readers all week to grab the + 3 if you can (I got 3.5 -120), and now most books have dipped to 2.5. Still, the Chargers are playable in 6-point teasers as you get + 8.5.

Giants + 10.5 vs. Rams: I picked this in Point Spread Weekly, assuming Mike Glennon was going to have to start for the Giants. But then reports started coming out that Daniel Jones would clear concussion protocol and the line started dropping and I advised readers to bet the Giants ASAP, but that they were still playable down to 8.5. Well, that’s where it sits early Sunday morning. Teaser players can add Rams -2.5 to their list, so hopefully we can catch a middle like we did Monday night with the Ravens and Colts.

Raiders + 4 at  Broncos: The 4’s appeared the other day and disappeared just as quickly. I had to settle for 3.5 in most of my contests, but it’s back up to 4 for weekend bettors.

Seahawks + 5 at Steelers: Looking pretty solid. In fact, I can’t believe how much this has sat right at 5 with many people seeing value in the Steelers (and even 277 using them in Circa Survivor), but other people with us on the Seahawks and thinking Geno Smith will fill in for Russell Wilson just fine. We’ll see who is right on Sunday night.

Good luck today (and every day!).

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