Tuley's Takes Today: Saturday recaps, updated ATS stats, Sunday Best Bets 6/26

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN senior reporter) 

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Saturday was yet another travel day on the Team Tuley summer vacation tour as it started in Fresno, Calif, went to Oakhurst (the southern gateway to Yosemite National Park) to pick the younger kids up at summer camp, then the long 7-hour ride back to Las Vegas.

We arrived home in time to watch our Best Bet on the Breakers-Stallions Under 44 lost on a late insurance TD in the Stallions’ 31-17 win over the Breakers. We won with a small play in the Stars’ 19-14 upset of the Generals in the other USFL semifinal game, but lost on the Breakers as well as our MLB plays on the Reds vs. the Giants and Blue Jays at the Brewers.

But all in all it was great to be back in the Tuley’s Takes home office, though I did crash hard late Saturday, so apologies for the late post on Sunday morning.

However, we’re still here for the 287th straight day (since Monday, Sept. 13) as we recap the rest of Saturday’s betting action, update our ATS stats and then try to make better decisions on Sunday.

Saturday’s recaps

MLB: Faves went 8-7 on Saturday with the biggest upsets by the Orioles (+ 176 in 6-2 win at White Sox), Astros (+ 170 in 3-0 win at Yankees with a combined no-hitter), A's (+ 152 in 9-7 win at Royals) and Red Sox (+ 142 in 4-2 win at Guardians). Road teams went 8-7. Unders 8-6-1 with the push in the Mariners’ 5-3 win at the Angels with a betting total of 8 runs.

More MLB: Faves lead 641-419 SU (60.5 percent) on the season with 17 games closing pick-'em (faves usually win around 59 percent, so faves still well ahead of that pace). Home teams lead just 549-528 (51 percent, but usually closer to 54 percent). Unders improved to 530-491-54 (51.9 percent).

USFL: Stars upset the Generals 19-14 in Saturday’s first USFL semifinal. The Stars closed as a 5.5-point underdog and + 170 on the money line while the game stayed well Under the betting total of 47.5 points. In the second semifinal, the Stallions beat the Breakers 31-17 and covered as 3.5-point favorites while the game went Over the closing total of 43.5 on a late insurance TD. Faves/dogs are 1-1 SU and ATS in the playoffs with the title game next Sunday. Overall, faves are 31-11 SU (73.8 percent) but just 20-20-2 ATS (50 percent). After also splitting 1-1 in the playoff games, Overs lead 23-19 (54.8 percent) overall after a 4-8 start.

NHL: No Stanley Cup Final game on Saturday, but here’s the updated betting stats. Faves dipped to 3-2 in the series with dogs winning second straight game (Avalanche were short road dog in Game 4 and Lightning won as + 170 road dog in Game 5 on Friday), but faves still lead 58-30 overall. Home teams are also 3-2 in series and 54-34 overall. Overs also dipped to 3-2 in the series, but still lead 46-40-2 (53.5 percent).

Sunday’s Takes

Lightning -105 vs. Avalanche (+ 105 at SuperBook with a dime line): We’re tempted to hedge with the Avalanche to at least get a little out of our series bets on the Lightning, but we’re not going to lay -115 on the favorite and certainly not risk middling myself with the -1.5 puck line in case the Avs win by 1 goal. Nope, I’m going all-in with the two-time defending champs here as I’m counting on them to force a Game 7. I mean, if I liked them in the series, I had to expect them to at least win 2 out of 3 games at home, right? As I’ve done all series, I’m also betting the Over 6 + 105 as I predicted before the series that the Over/Under would go at least 3-2-1 with the total set at 6 goals.

MLB dogs: We’ve been struggling with our dogs in the dog days of summer. As I’ll often do when faves are hot (though they’ve actually had losing days the last two days, but they’re hot in the games I’ve been picking LOL), I’ll lay the Yankees/Cortes -1.5 run line at + 130 as they should come out swinging after getting no-hit by the Astros on Saturday.

Good luck today (and every day!).

 

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