Tuley's Takes Today: Saturday recaps, updated ATS stats, Sunday Best Bets 6/19

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN senior reporter) 

June 19, 2022 03:05 AM
USATSI_18559978

Saturday was a pretty fun-filled day in and out of the Tuley’s Takes home office.

We followed the U.S. Open throughout the day, as well as all the MLB action and ended with a great steak dinner (I had to grill it myself, but I prefer it that way as the grillmaster in our family!) and homemade ice cream sundaes to celebrate Father’s Day as the family is leaving on vacation early Sunday.

It wasn’t a perfect day as we waited for Game 2 of the Stanley Cup only to see our bet on the Lightning + 135 go down in flames in a 7-0 loss to the Avalanche. However, we won all our other bets on the day. We gave out the Cubs + 140 in a double swagger/anti-swagger spot after they snapped their 10-game losing streak on Saturday while also snapping the Braves’ 14-game losing streak. We were also fading the public which jumped all over the previously hot Braves and we ended up getting + 175 (some books closed at + 180) as the Cubs jumped out to a 6-0 lead and held on for the 6-3 victory. We also won our other bets on the Cardinals + 105 in an 11-2 rout of the Red Sox and the Stars-Generals Over 41.5.

So, even though we lost our Best Bet, we still had a profitable day as well as some quality family time. Happy Father’s Day on Sunday to all my fellow dads out there.

Let’s recap the rest of Saturday’s betting action and try to keep the good times rolling (and hopefully hit our Best Bet for the cherry on top).

Saturday’s recaps

NHL: Avalanche routed the Lightning 7-0 Saturday night to take a 2-0 lead in the StanleyCup Final. The Avs easily won as -146 home favorites and went Over the betting total of 6 goals by themselves.

More NHL: Faves/Avalanche have started Stanley Cup Final 2-0 (after going 8-2 last round) and lead 57-28 overall. Home teams also start 2-0 (7-3 last round) and now 53-32 overall. Overs start 2-0 (Unders 7-3 last round) and improved to 45-38-2 (54.2 percent) overall.

MLB: Underdogs went 9-7 with biggest upsets by White Sox (+ 205 in 7-0 win at Astros), Cubs (+ 175 in 6-3 win vs. Braves for 2nd straight day) and Yankees (+ 130 in 4-0 at Blue Jays for 9th win in row). Road teams dominated at 11-5. Unders 8-7-1 with the push in the Dodgers’ 7-1 win vs the Guardians with a betting total of 8 runs.

More MLB: Faves lead 589-377 SU (61 percent) on the season w/ 17 games closing pick-'em (faves usually win around 59 percent, so faves still well ahead of that pace). Home teams lead just 500-483 (50.9 percent, but usually closer to 54 percent). Unders improved slightly to 482-452-47 (51.6 percent).

USFL: Faves went 2-0 SU Saturday but dogs were 1-0-1 ATS as Generals (-3) pushed in their 26-23 win vs. the Stars (went Over betting total of 41.5) and Bandits (+ 3.5) covered in 21-18 loss to the Stallions (stayed Under 41.5). Faves have dominated at 29-9 SU on the season but faves/dogs are tied 18-18-2 ATS. Overs lead 21-17.

Sunday’s Takes

Tigers + 135 vs. Rangers: This is another swagger play as the Tigers just snapped their 6-game losing streak on Saturday and now try for two in a row against the Rangers like the Cubs did vs. the Braves. The Tigers managed just 7 runs in their 6-game skid before exploding for 14 runs on Saturday. Let’s see if we can also hit our second dog of the day with the Marlins/Alcantra + 125 at the Mets/Bassitt (also considering Under 7).

Panthers-Maulers Under 42 (42.5 if you can get it): These are the two worst teams in the league at 1-8 and they’re playing in the season finale for the No. 1 draft choice. But instead of the team with the worst record getting the No. 1 spot, the USFL decided to give the WINNER of this game the top pick so that neither team can decide to tank. We have this total around 38.5, so there’s some value in the Under and we like it even more with the teams both having the incentive to win this game.

Good luck today (and every day!).

 

 

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