Saturday was a loooong day in the Tuley’s Takes home office as it started with the early horse racing card at Belmont and including a full MLB card, plus an NHL playoff game, two USFL games, golf and UFC action. It was non-stop action, and ended for yours truly with a free “Shaggy” concert under the Fremont Street Experience as I joined my wife’s cousin and her boyfriend (the cousin’s boyfriend, not my wife’s, silly) and led to me oversleeping before posting this column, so my apologies for those waiting for their daily dose.
It was a roller-coaster with our betting results as we didn’t cash enough small tickets to make up for our losing tickets, including watching Mo Donegal win the Belmont Stakes as the 5-2 favorite. It was bittersweet as I have a friend that was in the 70-person entourage for owner Mike Repole in the winner’s circle, but I was upset because me and another friend had Mo Donegal at 100-1 in the Kentucky Derby futures and needed him to show up with that performance 5 weeks ago!!!
Oh, well, that’s horse racing.
We also had a losing day as we dropped our Best Bet on the Generals-Panthers Under 47 on the Generals’ late winning TD and also lost on the Rangers + 160 at the Lightning in the NHL’s Eastern Conference Finals and only split our two MLB dogs with the Rangers + 125 beating the White Sox 11-9 in 10 innings and the Red Sox + 105 losing 7-6 to the Mariners (at least we squeaked out a little profit there).
Let’s recap the rest of Saturday’s action and try to rebound on Sunday.
Lightning beat Rangers 2-1 Saturday night as they won their 4th straight game to win the Eastern Conference Finals 4-2 and advance to the Stanley Cup Finals. The Lightning were a -210 home favorite and the game stayed Under the betting total of 5.5 goals. Under went 5-1 in this series. Faves finished 8-2 in the conference finals round and now lead 55-28 overall. Home teams went 7-3 in the round and now 51-32 overall. Unders improved to 7-3 in this round (5-1 in this series), while Overs still lead 43-38-2 (53.1 percent) overall.
Gamblers upset Stallions 17-15 to deal USFL’s top team its 1st loss of the season. The Gamblers did it as 12.5-point dogs and the game stayed Under 42.5). Faves/dogs split 1-1 SU on Saturday but dogs were 2-0 ATS as the Panthers lost but covered in 25-23 loss to the Generals (-7.5, Over 46.5). Over/Unders 1-1 on the day. Faves are 25-9 SU on the season but just 17-16-1 ATS. Overs still lead 20-14.
Underdogs went 9-7 on Saturday with the biggest upsets by the Marlins + 240 in 5-1 win at Astros), Tigers (+ 240 in 3-1 win vs. Blue Jays), Rockies (+ 190 in 6-2 win at Padres) and Giants (+ 180 in 3-2 win vs. Dodgers). Also, the A’s (+ 120 in 10-5 win at Guardians) snapped a 10-game losing streak. Home teams were 11-5. Overs went 10-6. Faves are still 529-340 SU (60.9 percent) on the season with 17 games closing pick-'em (faves usually win around 59 percent, so faves are still ahead of that pace). Home teams improved to 461-425 (52 percent, but usually closer to 54 percent). Unders lead just 428-397-43 (51.9 percent).
No game until Monday, but here’s the playoff betting stats: Faves/dogs back to .500 at 2-2 SU and ATS in the NBA Finals. Faves still lead 56-29 SU and 49-36 ATS (57.6 percent) overall. Home/road teams are 2-2 SU and ATS while 51-34 SU and 44-41 ATS (51.8 percent) overall. The zig-zig is 3-0 ATS so far in the Finals with the teams alternating wins so far and 40-30 ATS (57.1 percent) overall. Over/Unders are 2-2 in the FInals, while Unders lead 50-35 (58.8 percent).
A’s + 150 at Guardians:
This is coming up early at 11:35 a.m. ET/8:35 a.m. PT but it’s a swagger play with the A’s snapping their 10-game losing streak on Saturday. There’s also value in the price at odds of 3-2 in a pitching matchup that is virtually even with Cole Irvin (2-2, 3.00 ERA, 1.25 WHIP) for the A’s vs. Cal Quantrill (3-3, 3.59 ERA, 1.20 WHIP). The only other dog I like on Sunday’s card is the Giants/Rodon + 120 vs. the Dodgers/Urias.
Bandits-Breakers Under 42.5:
We lost our USFL play on Saturday, but we’re going back to the well with this Under as we have it closer to 38 points and hopefully we don’t get another endgame situation to push it Over the total.
Good luck today (and every day!).