Tuley's Takes Today: Saturday recaps, NFL Sunday best bets (10-10)

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN.com senior reporter) 

October 10, 2021 03:19 AM

If you’re a sports fan (and especially a sports bettor) like we are in the Tuley’s Takes home office, you really had to love Saturday. We had wall-to-wall football, two MLB playoff games and an instant classic of a heavyweight championship bout. And that’s not even including if you’re into golf, tennis and other sports going on this time of year (and hopefully you were following along with my "Tuley's Thoroughbred Takes" team on Saturday as me and my friends had a great day on the horse races, including a 12-1 winner at Keeneland that I gave out).

I split 3-3 ATS with my best bets in college football on Saturday as I won with East Carolina, Ball State and Texas-San Antonio but lost on Buffalo, LSU and Texas. The loss on Texas was especially hard to deal with after the Longhorns led 28-7 and then, even after blowing that lead, it looked like they were going to lose on a late FG (and cover for us at + 3.5), but instead gave up a long TD run.

That ended up being the difference between what could have been a winning day and what was a losing day after the Giants lost to the Dodgers on Saturday night.

But we feel good about Sunday’s card, which starts early at 6:30 a.m. PT here in Vegas, so I better get to bed. Let’s go over the general betting recaps from Saturday and a glance at Contest Corner before going over my picks for the rest of NFL Week 5.

Saturday’s recaps

MLB: Dodgers (-126 road favorites) routed Giants 9-2 late Saturday to even their National League Division Series at 1-1. The game went Over the betting total of 7.5 runs as the Dodgers went Over by themselves. Earlier in the other NLDS, the Braves (+ 105 road underdogs) shut out Brewers 3-0 to also even their series at 1-1. Tha games stayed Under 7 runs). Faves and dogs split 1-1 Saturday. Faves lead 5-3 through the LDS Game 2s. Road teams went 2-0 Saturday, but home teams still lead 5-3, though now top seeds go on the road. Over/Unders split 1-1 Saturday. Unders lead 5-3.

CFB: Texas A/M upset No. 1 Alabama 41-38 on 28-yard FG as time expired. The Aggies closed as 19-point home underdogs and + 720 on the money line. The game flew Over the betting total of 50.5 points. No. 2 Georgia (-15.5) covered in a 34-10 win at No. 18 Auburn. No. 3 Iowa (-2.5) covered in 23-20 win vs. No. 4 Penn State. No. 6 Oklahoma (-4) somehow covered in 55-38 Red River Shootout vs. Texas in the Cotton Bowl after trailing 28-7; OU was trying to set up the winning FG, but scored TD instead in the closing seconds. Boise State ( 6.5) upset No. 10 BYU 26-17. 

Boxing: Tyson Fury knocked out Deontay Wilder in the 11th round of a classic fight for the WBC world heavyweight boxing championship late Saturday night at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. Fury closed as a consensus -290 favorite. The fight went Over (aka "will go") 7.5 rounds.

Contest Corner

Circa Sports Million Top 5 Most-Selected Teams (12-8 on young season) for #NFL Week 5 are the Panthers -3 vs. the Eagles, 49ers + 5.5 at the Cardinals, Titans -4.5 at Jaguars, Chargers -2 vs. Browns and Bills + 2.5 at Chiefs.

Circa Survivor is down to 2,331 live entrants after 2 didn't put in their pick for NFL Week 5. Vikings are the No. 1 choice by 1,343 (57.6 percent of the remaining field) with 443 using the Patriots, 253 on the Patriots and 157 on the Buccaneers.

SuperContest Top 5 Most-Selected Teams and selections from all contestants will be released Sunday morning as the deadline for submissions isn’t until 11:59 p.m. PT on Saturdays.

Sunday’s Takes

These NFL picks are mostly our best bets from Point Spread Weekly as we update our recommendations on when to make these plays as the lines move during the week (for more of our reasons why we like each game, check out PSW or the VSiN NFL Best Bets file at VSiN.com).

Jets + 3 vs. Falcons in London: As we advised back in Thursday’s column, the 3’s have been slowly disappearing all week, so hopefully you grabbed the points earlier. We’re also using the Jets to kick off some teasers with the early Sunday start (9:30 a.m. ET/6:30 a.m. PT). See below for which teams we’re using with the Jets.  

Football Team teased up to + 7.5 vs. Saints: This line has been drifting up to Saints -2.5, so you should now be able to tease the Football Team up to + 8.5. 

Lions + 8 at Vikings, though also using Vikings in teasers: The line is now up to + 10, so we’re no longer using the Vikings in teasers and would just stick with the Lions plus the inflated points.

Bengals + 3 vs. Packers: This has been showing signs of dipping with support on the underdog Bengals, so grab the 3 if you still can. Again, teasing the Bengals to + 8.5 or 9 looks strong.

Browns teased up to + 7.5 at Chargers: This line had gone up to Chargers -2 and even -2.5 at several books, so the teasers are looking even better on the Browns.

Giants + 7 at Cowboys, though using Cowboys -1 in teasers: This line has been holding pretty steady.

Bills + 3 at Chiefs: The 3’s are mostly gone (though could still come back with the public still expected to back the Chiefs if favored by less than a field goal), but still playing the Bills in teasers at + 8.5

Colts + 7 at Ravens on MNF, though using Ravens -1 in teasers: This line also looking solid.

Good luck today (and every day!).


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