Tuley's Takes Today: Saturday recaps, Contest Corner, updated NFL picks (11/21)

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN.com senior reporter) 

November 21, 2021 03:11 AM
Dak_Prescott

It was another great Saturday following all the action in the Tuley’s Take home office, but college football was where we had our most success.

My best bets went 3-2 ATS on Saturday (4-2 ATS for the week, including Southern Mississippi upsetting Louisiana Tech on Friday night) as we won with Florida State + 2.5 at Boston College, Louisiana-Lafayette + 4.5 at Liberty and Baylor + 1 at Kansas State and lost with Wake Forest at Clemson and South Alabama at Tennessee. What made it better was that all three of our dogs also pulled outright upsets.

We hope the dogs keep barking on Sunday, so let’s get to our betting recaps and then update our best bets for the NFL Week 11 card, including our teaser portfolio.

Saturday’s recaps

CFB: Utah routed No. 3 Oregon 38-7, but it was NOT an upset as the Utes were 3-point home favorites. The next teams in the CFB Playoff rankings covered easily: No. 4 Ohio State (-19 in 56-7 rout vs. No. 7 Michigan State) and No. 5 Cincinnati (-9.5 in 48-14 rout vs. SMU). The Top 2 teams in the country failed to cover big spreads: No. 1 Georgia (-52 in 56-7 rout of Charleston Southern) and No. 2 Alabama (-21 in 42-35 win vs. No. 21 Arkansas).

NBA: Faves went 8-1 SU with the lone upset by the Wizards (+ 2 vs. Heat), but dogs led 5-4 ATS as the Rockets (+ 11 at Knicks), Thunder (+ 9.5 at Celtics), Magic (+ 13 at Bucks) and 76ers (+ 7.5 at Blazers) covered in SU losses. Overs 5-4 on Saturday, but Unders still lead 146-99-3 (59.6 percent).

CBB: No. 5 Villanova beat No. 17 Tennessee 71-53 as a 2-point favorite at Mohegan Sun Arena in Uncasville, Conn. In the other game in the Hall of Fame Tip Off, No. 6 Purdue beat No. 18 North Carolina 93-84 and covered as a 7-point fave.  

 

NHL: Faves went 8-4 Saturday with the upsets by the Devils (+ 175 at Lightning), Canadiens (+ 106 vs. Predators), Penguins (+ 144 at Maple Leafs) and Coyotes (+ 125 vs. Red Wings). Overs went 7-5. 

Contest Corner

Circa Survivor is down to just 173 live entries andmore than half took the Browns (88) in Week 11, followed by the Titans (38), Buccaneers (22), Patriots (11), Chargers (5), 49ers (4), Ravens (2), Panthers (1), Eagles (1) and Dolphins (1).

Circa Sports Million Top 5 Most-Selected Teams (29-21, 58 percent, on the season) for NFL Week 11 are the Colts + 7 at the Bills, Vikings + 1.5 vs, the Packers, Ravens -4.5 at the Bears, Dolphins -3 at the Jets and Seahawks + 2 vs. the Cardinals

The Westgate SuperContest’s Top 5 and selections from all contestants aren’t posted until Sunday morning as the submission deadline isn’t until 11:59 p.m. PT on Saturdays.

 

Sunday’s Takes

Lions + 10 at Browns: This was made before knowing that Jared Goff was questionable (of course, Baker Mayfield is also banged up). However, Goff is definitely sitting out and will be replaced by Tim Boyle in his first NFL start. The line has been adjusted to 12.5, at most books but I’m no longer interested. However, I probably won’t be able to resist if the line gets steamed to 14 points before kickoff.

Colts + 7.5 at Bills: In Thursday’s column, we advised everyone to grab 7.5 if they could, and it’s still recommended to take + 7 even-money.

Washington + 3.5 at Panthers: I tried advising everyone to grab the hook at -110 if they could. Most books are down to 7, though still shop around to get + 7 EVEN.

Cowboys + 2.5 at Chiefs: Some books have gone to added juice on the Chiefs -2.5, so I’m holding out hope that we can get + 3 by Sunday afternoon.

Steelers + 5.5 at Chargers: This game wasn’t on my original best-bet list, but with the line increased to 5.5 and Ben Roethlisberger reportedly being cleared to start, I think the dog is the way to go here.

Giants + 11 at Buccaneers (Monday): A few books have dipped to 10.5, but I’m still holding out hope that the public bets this higher over the weekend.

Teaser strategy: In the NFL Best Bets column elsewhere on VSiN.com, I went with Saints + 7.5/Cowboys + 8.5 as my top two-team, 6-point teaser of the week, but also using recommended using with Vikings + 8.5 vs. the Packers, Raiders + 7 vs. the Bengals and Seahawks + 8.5 vs. the Cardinals (note: the line has flipped in the Cards-Seahawks game, so instead of teasing the Seahawks, the play is now to tease the Cardinals from + 2.5 up to + 8.5 if you trust Colt McCoy.

Good luck today (and every day!).

 

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