Saturday was another great day here in the Tuley’s Takes home office.
It was a mixed-bag as my top college football plays went 3-3 ATS with wins on Kansas State (outright winner vs. Texas Tech), Nevada (late luck back-door cover) and East Carolina (rallied to cover + 13.5 in game that was delayed 5.5 hours) but losses on Texas State (by 1.5 points), Colorado (by a lot more!) and LSU (didn’t quite get in the back door).
I didn’t bet the Dodgers-Braves game, but I’m glad I passed after originally planning to bet the Dodgers on the run line before Max Scherzer was scratched. We have a saying in horse racing that “they never scratch a winner,” so I’m glad they didn’t send him out there. I wrote in Saturday’s version of this column that I was tempted to take the Braves on the money line to close out the series; I didn’t make it an official pick and I didn’t bet it, but hopefully some readers went ahead with it.
Anyway, it’s on to the NFL on Sunday. Let’s give our general recaps of Saturday’s betting results, then take a peak in Contest Corner before going over our best bets for Sunday. Hopefully you have some live teasers from the Broncos on Thursday Night Football (it pays to follow this column every day during the week), but otherwise our comments on Sunday’s picks are for those that still haven’t bet yet.
MLB: Braves (+ 132 home underdogs) beat the Dodgers 4-2 Saturday night to win the National League Championship Series 4-2 and advance to the WorldSeries against the Astros. The game stayed Under the betting total of 8 runs. Faves/dogs split 6-6 in this round, home teams went 8-4 and Overs dipped to 9-3. In the LDS and LCS rounds combined, faves went 18-11, home teams 19-10 and Overs 18-11.
CFB: Illinois (+ 24.5 and + 1300 on the money line ) upset No. 7 Penn State 20-18 in a record 9 OTs on a day when many top-ranked teams were on upset alert. No. 2 Cincinnati (-29) beat Navy by only 27-20 and No. 3 Oklahoma (-38.5) never came close to covering in a 35-23 win at Kansas. No. 4 Alabama (-25.5) had its hands full with Tennessee, but actually covered in a 52-24 victory. No. 8 Oklahoma State lost 24-21 at Iowa State, but it was NOT an upset as the Cyclones were 7-point home favorites (so the ranked underdog actually covered).
NBA: Faves/dogs split 4-4 ATS on Saturday with upsets by Cavaliers (+ 8.5 vs. Hawks), Pacers (+ 3.5 vs. Heat) and Grizzlies (+ 4 at Clippers), plus Pelicans (+ 7.5 at Timberwolves) covered in 96-89 SU loss. Unders went 5-3 on the day.
NHL: Favorites went 9-4 Saturday with upsets by Flames (+ 132 at Capitals), Avalanche (-105 at Lightning), Penguins (+ 145 vs. Maple Leafs) and Canucks (+ 120 at Kraken, which was playing the franchise's first game at home). Overs went 8-4-1 with the push on Canucks-Kraken (6).
Circa Sports Million Top 5 Most-Selected Teams (19-11 on season) for NFL Week 7 are Colts + 4 at 49ers, Bengals + 6.5 at Ravens, Eagles + 3 at Raiders, Patriots -7 vs. Jets and Titans + 4.5 vs. Chiefs. And apparently, Mr Wiggles, who was tied for second at 25-5 (83.3 percent) coming into this week, didn’t get their picks submitted and will get 0 points for the week (as of presstime, we’re not aware if Mr Wiggles has a proxy or not).
Circa Survivor had 2,224 live entrants coming into Week 7. Only 2 failed to get their pick in and 2 were eliminated with the Broncos on Thursday Night Football, so we're down to 2,220 with 1 already advancing with the Browns. The No. 1 choice this week is the Patriots (656), followed by the Cardinals (552), Rams (386), Packers (272) and Buccaneers (232).
The Westgate SuperContest will post its Top 5 Consensus plays and selections of all contestants on Sunday morning. You can follow along on Twitter @SuperBookNV and I’ll also Tweet out @ViewFromVegas.
Bengals (+ 6.5) at Ravens: A few books have dropped to Ravens -6, so it’s looking less likely we’ll get + 7, especially as the Bengals have become a pretty popular public underdog, including being the No. 2 pick this week in Circa Sports Million (which kinda scares us as we prefer to be contrarian with our underdog plays), but grab the + 6.5 if you still can.
Lions (+ 15.5) at Rams:
As I wrote yesterday, this line continues to climb with several Vegas books at Rams -16 and some at Rams -16.5, so I’ll continue to wait until the line peaks.
Bears (+ 12.5) at Buccaneers:
Also on Thursday, I wrote that this line was no longer trending toward two touchdowns and to grab the + 12.5 if possible but to not take any worse than + 11.5. As of this update early Sunday morning, several books are already down to 11.5, so grab the 12 if possible or the 11.5.
Colts (+ 4) at 49ers:
I didn’t include this on the VSiN NFL Best Bets page, but I’m still betting it and adding it here. I wrote the other day that the + 4.5s are long gone so you should still grab + 4 if you can as some books have dipped to 3.5.
Seahawks (+ 5) vs. Saints:
The 5’s are also gone as this is mostly down to 4.5 (and even some books dropping to 4), so grab + 4.5 if you still can.
Good luck today (and every day!).