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Tuley's Takes Today: Saturday recaps, Contest Corner, NFL picks (11/7)

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN.com senior reporter) 

Teddy_Bridgewater

Saturday was a very exciting day in the Tuley’s Takes home office as we had college football all day with the Breeders’ Cup during the day and a big boxing match and UFC main event later at night with some NBA and NHL for good measure.

Hopefully you fared better overall than yours truly as I went 2-3 ATS with my college football bets (though 4-3 ATS for the week if counting Central Michigan’s upset win over Western Michigan on Wednesday night that I posted in Point Spread Weekly, plus Eastern Michigan’s upset of Toledo on Tuesday night that I just included here) but didn’t have a winner on top in any of the 14 BC races on Friday and Saturday.

But as disappointed as I was that my long-shot value plays didn’t come through, there were enough other price horses that came in to show that my approach is the right way to beat the Breeders’ Cup – I just have to find the right long shots!

Anyway, let’s recap Saturday’s betting results and take a peek in Contest Corner before taking a final look at my bets on Sunday’s NFL card.

Saturday’s recaps

CFB: In Saturday's biggest upset rankings-wise, Purdue beat No. 3 Michigan State 40-29 as a 2.5-point home underdog and + 120 on the money line). No. 1 Georgia (-40 in 43-6 rout vs. Missouri) and No. 2 Alabama (-29 in hard-fought 20-14 win vs. LSU) won but both failed to cover their much larger spreads.

More CFB: No. 4 Oregon (-7) held off Washington, but ended up covering in a 26-16 win. No. 5 Ohio State (-14.5 in 26-17 win at Nebraska) and No. 6 Cincinnati (-23 in 28-20 win vs. Tulsa), the teams closest to breaking into the CFB Playoff Top 4, both won but failed to cover.

NBA: Favorites went 5-1 SU on Saturday with the lone upset by the 76ers (+ 4 at Bulls), but only 3-3 ATS as the Rockets (+ 11.5 at Nuggets) and Celtics (+ 3.5 at Mavericks) covered in SU losses. Overs went 4-2 on the day, but Unders still lead 87-50-1 (63.5 percent) on the young season.

NHL: Underdogs went 6-5 SU on Saturday with the Red Wings-Sabres closing pick-'em. The biggest upsets were by the Coyotes (+ 175 in 5-4 win vs. the Kraken), Blue Jackets (+ 155 in 4-2 win vs. the Avalanche) and Flyers (+ 140 in 2-1 win at the Capitals). Overs went 9-3.

Fighting (boxing/UFC): Canelo Alvarez beat Caleb Plant by TKO in the 11th round of their undisputed super middleweight title fight late Saturday at the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas. Alvarez closed as a -700 favorite while the "will go" (aka Over) 9.5 rounds cashed. Right after that in UFC 268 at Madison Square Garden in New York, Kamaru Usman defeated Colby Covington by unanimous decision to defend his welterweight title. Usman closed as a -290 favorite while the "will go" (aka Over) 3.5 rounds cashed.

Contest Corner

CIrca Sports Million Top 5 Most-Selected Teams (24-16 on season) for NFL Week 9 are the 49ers + 1 (current line is 49ers -3) vs. Cardinals, Chargers -1.5 at Eagles, Bengals -2.5 vs. Browns, Patriots -3.5 at Panthers and Packers + 7.5 at Chiefs.

Circa Survivor has 1,187 live entries heading into Sunday as just 1 failed to put in a pick this week. There have already been 287 that have advanced to Week 10 by using the Colts on Thursday Night Football as the No. 1 choice of the week. Sunday's top choices are the Bills (249), Steelers (151), Ravens (126), Saints (122) and Cowboys (111).

The Westgate SuperContest Top 5 will be released Sunday morning as the weekly deadline for submissions is at 11:59 p.m. PT on Saturdays. You can see them by following @SuperBookNV on Twitter or my account @ViewFromVegas. 

Sunday’s Takes

As we’ve written several times, these are our recommended best bets and the lines from Point Spread Weekly. Go there for more on the reasons why I like the picks, but here we’re most concerned with timing our bets and getting the best numbers possible.

NFL

Broncos + 10 at Cowboys: We wrote on Thursday that we hoped everyone grabbed the 10 as some books had dipped to 9.5. However, a lot of the books held the line at 10 and that’s where it has stayed at most books as of early Sunday morning.

Vikings + 5.5 at Ravens: As we also wrote the other day, this line is up to 6 just about everywhere, so we should wait to see if it goes even higher. (note: a couple of books went to + 6.5 on Saturday, so grab it if you can).

Chiefs pick-’em vs. Packers: Well, this line is long-gone as that’s what it was when we were putting Point Spread Weekly together. You know that I’m not going to lay the -7.5 (or even 7), so let’s just tease it down to -1.5 (or even better down to -1) as the Chiefs pretty much just have to win the game straight-up. For more teaser options, see below.

Titans + 7.5 at Rams: This line stayed at 7.5 for longer than I expected, but I hope everyone grabbed the hook as I recommended. I would still play it at + 7 but hopefully you don’t have to just in the Rams win by exactly a TD and a PAT.

Teaser strategy (use these in combinations depending which you like): Browns from + 2.5 to + 8.5 at Bengals, Giants + 2.5 (now 3) to + 8.5 (now 9) vs. Raiders and Eagles + 1.5 to + 7.5 at Chargers. As we mentioned above, with the change in the Packers-Chiefs spread, add the Chiefs from -7.5 to -1.5 (or -7 down to -1) vs. Packers. In addition, I wouldn’t talk anyone out of using Rams from -7 down to -1 vs. Titans, but as you see I’m on the Titans (though it does have a very hittable middle with Rams -1 and Titans + 7.5). Also, we previously included the 49ers teased from + 1.5 to + 7.5 vs. the Cardinals, but now the 49ers have flipped to favoritism; so the preferred teaser now would be Cardinals from + 2.5 to + 8.5.

Good luck today (and every day!).

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