Tuley's Takes Today: Saturday recaps, Contest Corner, NFL best bets (11/28)

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN.com senior reporter) 

November 28, 2021 02:04 AM

Saturday was another thrilling sports betting day in the Tuley Takes home office (and, I’m sure in your homes from coast to coast) with action across several sports.

Most of our focus was on college football with our dogs going 4-0-1 ATS with the push as we got Miami-Ohio + 1 earlier in the week and they ended up losing 48-47 to Kent State in OT. Hopefully the worst any followers went with our picks was 4-1 ATS if they only got Miami-O at pick-’em or ended up laying -1.

Virginia Tech (+ 7 at Virginia), Western Kentucky (+ 2 at Marshall) and Middle Tennessee State (+ 4 at Florida Atlantic) all pulled outright upsets while Tulane (+ 6 at Memphis) got the back-door cover in a 33-28 SU loss at Memphis.

And there were plenty of underdogs winning in the NBA and NHL as well, so let’s get to the general recaps for Saturday. And then we have a Contest Corner update on Circa Sports Million III and Circa Survivor with consensus plays from the former and the breakdown of the selections of the 40 remaining in Survivor.

Then, we update our NFL best bets for Sunday based on how the lines have been moving.

Saturday’s recaps

CFB: No. 5 Michigan upset No. 2 Ohio State 42-27 to win the Big Ten East with Michigan RB Hassan Haskin scoring 5 TDs. The Wolverines did it after closing as 6.5-point home underdogs and + 215 on the money line. The game went Over the betting total of 64.5 on Michigan's last TD. No. 3 Alabama outlasted Auburn 24-22 in 4OT after rallying to tie their “Iron Bowl” rivalry game in the final minute of regulation. Auburn easily covered as a 20.5-point underdog, though + 850 ML backers can claim a #BadBeat. The game stayed Under 57 points even with the OTs. 

More CFB: No. 7 Oklahoma State rallied and held off No. 10 Oklahoma 37-33, but did NOT cover after closing as consensus 4.5-point home fave (though a lot of bettors pushed on lines of -4/+ 4), No. 8 Baylor beat Texas Tech 27-24 but also did NOT cover as 14.5-point home fave. In another game involving a team in the hunt for the CFB Playoff, No. 6 Notre Dame (-21) did cover in a 45-14 rout vs. Stanford. Of course, No. 1 Georgia (-35.5) also rolled in a 45-0 rout of Georgia Tech.

CBB: The only upset Saturday involving a Top 25 team was Northern Iowa knocking off No. 16 St. Bonaventure as a 9.5-point road underdog and + 420 on the money line. No. 2 UCLA covered as a 10-point road fave in 73-51 win at UNLV.

NBA: Dogs went 6-2 SU on Saturday with upsets by Suns (+ 1.5 at Nets even though Suns were going for 16th straight win), Timberwolves (+ 6.5 at 76ers), Knicks (+ 8 at Hawks), Rockets (+ 5.5 vs. Hornets), Heat (+ 1 at Bulls) and Wizards (+ 6.5 at Mavericks). Overs went 5-3 on the day, but Unders still lead 168-129-3 (56.6 percent) on the season.

NHL: Faves went 5-4 Saturday with upsets by the Kraken (+ 180 at Panthers), Oilers (+ 120 at Golden Knights), Canadiens (+ 190 at Penguins) and Jets (+ 153 at Flames). Overs went 5-4.

Contest Corner

Circa Survivor has 40 live entries heading into the weekend games of Week 12 (after they had to survive the contest’s special “Thanksgiving Week” of games played on Thanksgiving Day) and picks are spread throughout a tough Week 12 schedule. Patriots (12) are the most popular pick as the biggest fave on the Sunday/Monday card with no other team selected by a double-digit number of contestants. Other teams used by the Survivors are the Eagles (6), Bengals (5), 49ers (5), Ravens (4), Panthers (2), Seahawks (2), Dolphins (1), Chargers (1), Texans (1) and Falcons (1).

Circa Sports Million Top 5 Most-Selected Teams for NFL Week 12 are the Steelers + 4.5 at Bengals, Rams pick'-em at Packers, Colts + 3 vs. Buccaneers, Patriots -6.5 vs. Titans and Eagles -3.5 at Giants. The Circa Top 5 is 32-23 (58.2 percent) on the season.

The Westgate SuperContest will post its Top 5 consensus plays along with selections of all contestants on Sunday morning as its submission deadline isn’t until 11:59 p.m. Saturdays.

Sunday’s Takes

Here’s the rest of my best bets from PSW (having already won with the Raiders on Thanksgiving). Remember, we’re mostly concerned here with how the lines are moving so we can decided whether to bet our plays ASAP or wait for a better number closer to kickoff The reasons for our picks can be found in PSW or in the NFL Best Bets column on VSiN.com.

Titans + 6.5 at Patriots: When we picked this in PSW, we were hoping it would get to 7 and it sure did on Wednesday as everyone is jumping on the New England bandwagon. Can we get + 7.5 by Sunday? The betting has leveled off at 7, so I’m thinking that might be all we get (but I believe it’s more than enough). 

Steelers + 4.5 at Bengals: This wasn’t looking like it was going any higher earlier in the week, and I recommended “betting it sooner rather than later.” It’s down to 4 at most books with even a few 3.5s out there, so grab the best number you can

Vikings + 3 at 49ers: Most books have gone to 49ers -3 -120 and the South Point and William Hill were the first to move to 49ers -3.5, so the other day we recommended to shop around for that hook and we stand by that.

Browns + 4 at Ravens: This was at + 4.5 early Tuesday, but has been gradually getting bet down, so I advised to grab + 4 ASAP. Hopefully you did as we’re mostly seeing 3.5s out there now, though it should still be enough if this game comes down to a late FG (but you always want that + 4 if you can get it).

Good luck today (and every day!).


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