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Tuley's Takes Today: Saturday recap, updated NFL best bets (1/2)

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN.com senior reporter) 

January 2, 2022 07:14 AM
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A new year, but just another thrilling day of sports betting action here in the Tuley’s Take home office.

We started the year off on a winning note with best-bet winners on Oklahoma State (which actually closed as a short favorite after we gave the Cowboys out as a short underdog) and Baylor. The Rose Bowl was also like watching a street football game from our youth with seemingly every other play a touchdown (we wish we had bet the Over!) and we had a small bet on Utah plus the points.

Let’s recap the rest of the betting action from New Year’s Day and then try to keep the winning going with updates on our NFL best bets from Point Spread Weekly on Sunday.

Saturday’s recaps

CFB: No. 7 Baylor (+ 1, + 100 on money line) pulled a minor upset of No. 8 Mississippi 21-7 late New Year's Day in the Sugar Bowl as the game stayed way Under 60 points). No. 6 Ohio State (-4) rallied to beat No. 11 Utah 48-45 in a wild Rose Bowl, but did NOT cover as the game flew Over 64.5 just after midway through the 3rd quarter.

More CFB: Earlier New Year's Day,  Arkansas (-3.5) beat Penn State 24-10 in the Outback Bowl (Under 51); Oklahoma State (-1) beat Notre Dame 37-35 in Fiesta Bowl and covered vs. closing line (Over 45); and Kentucky (-3) pushed in 20-17 win over Iowa in Citrus Bowl (Under 43.5).

Even more CFB: Faves 4-1 SU and 2-2-1 ATS on the day while Unders were 3-2. Faves lead 26-10 SU this bowl season with 1 game closing pick-'em (Western Kentucky-Appalachian State) and also lead 20-15-1 ATS (57.1 percent) with that 1 PK. Overs still lead 19-18 (51.4 percent) overall, though Unders are 15-10 (60 percent) since a 3-9 start.

CBB: No. 1 Baylor beat No. 8 Iowa State 77-72, but did NOT cover as 8-point road favorite (game went Over betting total of 133). No. 22 Villanova beat No. 15 Seton Hall 73-67, but it was NOT an upset as Villanova was a 2-point road fave (went Over 137.5).

NBA: Faves/dogs split 3-3 SU on Saturday, but dogs led 4-2 ATS as Wizards (+ 2 vs. Bulls) covered in 120-119 SU loss. The upsets were by the Clippers (+ 14, + 750 ML at Nets), Pistons (+ 6.5, + 220 ML vs. Spurs) and Warriors (+ 5.5, + 185 at Jazz). Overs went a perfect 6-0 on the day.

NHL: Faves went 7-1 SU on Saturday with the Oilers-Islanders game closing pick-'em. The lone upset was by the Blues (shortest of underdogs at -105) in their 6-4 win at the Wild). Overs went 7-2 on the day.

Contest Corner

Circa Survivor has 5 live entrants shooting for the $6 million guaranteed prize. On Sunday, 2 used the 49ers while 1 each are on the Chargers, Saints and Seahawks. All 3 that have the Buccaneers or Chiefs available for the $1 million bonus if used in Week 18 have chosen to save them in case they want to use them and go for the added bonus.

Circa Sports Million Top 5 Most-Selected Teams (43-37 on season) for NFL Week 17 are Packers -7 vs. Vikings (line up to -13 at submission deadline), Rams -3.5 at Ravens (up to -6), Titans -3 vs. Dolphins, Cardinals + 6 at Cowboys and Steelers + 3.5 vs. Browns. 

The Westgate SuperContest posts its Top 5 consensus and selections of all contestants on Sunday morning as its submission deadline isn’t until 11:59 p.m. PT on Saturdays.

Sunday’s Takes

Raiders + 7 at Colts: When we were putting together Point Spread Weekly, this line was down to 1.5 and then adjusted back to 6.5 when it appeared that Carson Wentz might start after all. Either way, we expect the Raiders to stick around and stay within a field goal, so we like it even better as a few books have gone to + 7.5 and now up to 8. Like my mama said, you better shop around!

Falcons + 14.5 at Bills: The Bills have straightened out their season, but I still don’t think they should be big faves over the Falcons, who continue to fight for an NFC wild-card spot.

Cardinals + 6 at Cowboys: These teams are seemingly heading in opposite directions, but I still don’t believe the Cowboys should be favored by this much over a still-dangerous Cardinals team. We advised to wait as the line was climbing and it’s + 6.5 at most books as of early Sunday morning with Wynn Las Vegas already at 7, so see if you can get + by kickoff.

Bengals + 5 vs. Chiefs: The Chiefs are up to the No. 1 seed in the AFC, but the Bengals need this game just as much and Joe Burrow and Co. can certainly match the Chiefs score for score. We advised yesterday to grab the 5 if you could as most books were down to 4.5 and now it’s down to 4.

Broncos + 6.5 at Chargers: We would prefer Teddy Bridgewater, but we’ll still go with Drew Lock. We were hoping for at least 7 but now it’s up to + 7.5 and even 8 at many books so grab the best number you can.

Texans + 12.5 at 49ers: If the Texans (led by Davis Mills and Rex Burkhead) could knock off the Chargers, there’s no reason to doubt they can make a game of it against the 49ers, especially if Trey Lance is forced to start. The line is mostly down to 12 so grab the best number you can.

Lions + 7 at Seahawks: The Lions continue to cash for us, so no reason to stop. We missed the opener of + 9 but it’s back up to 7.5 at just about all books as of early Sunday morning.

Vikings + 7 at Packers: This line was at 6.5 when we wrote this week’s Tuley’s Takes for Point Spread Weekly, so we were waiting for it to get back to 7 when it was announced MInnesota QB Kirk Cousins tested positive for COVID-19. Sean Mannion will fill in and the line is up to 13, so we’ll still take the Vikes though we don’t get that price in our contests.

Happy New Year’s from all of us in the Tuley’s Takes home office and VSiN.

 

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