Tuley's Takes Today: Saturday recap, updated betting stats, Sunday plays 5/22

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN senior reporter) 

May 22, 2022 08:46 AM
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Saturday was an action-packed day, beginning early with a full-day Preakness card and the PGA Championship along with all the other sports at this time of year (NBA and NHL playoffs, MLB, USFL, etc.). We also went to a high school graduation party for a family friend (my daughter, Peyton, has her graduation in two weeks).

We won our Best Bet with the Heat beating the Celtics 109-103 in the zig-zag role. We also swept our MLB plays on the Diamondbacks + 130 at the Cubs and Padres + 125 at the Giants. We did lose smaller plays on the Blues in the NHL and Panthers in the USFL and all our horse racing bets, but it was still a pretty good day.

Let’s recap the rest of Saturday’s betting results and look over our options for Sunday.

Saturday’s recaps

NBA: Heat beat Celtics 109-103 Saturday to take 2-1 lead in the Eastern Conference Finals. The ViewFromVegas is the Heat did it as a 5.5-point road underdog (the game Over the closing total of 207.5 points). Faves (and home teams) dropped to 3-1 SU and ATS in this round. Unders improved to 4-1.

More NBA: Faves still lead 49-25 SU and 42-32 ATS (56.8 percent) overall in the playoffs. Home teams dipped to 46-28 SU but just 39-35 ATS (52.7 percent). The zig-zag theory improved to 2-1 ATS this round with the Miami win and leads 32-28 ATS overall. Unders dipped to 44-30 (59.5 percent) overall.

NHL: Avalanche (-165) beat the Blues 5-2 to take 2-1 lead in their 2nd-round series. The game went Over the betting total of 6.5 goals). Faves took a 5-4 this round and lead 38-22 overall (but 27-33 on -1.5  puck line). Road teams took a 5-4 lead, but home teams still lead 36-24 overall. The zig-zag, which isn’t as commonly applied to the NHL, is 2-1 SU this round and is 27-21 SU overall. Unders dipped to 6-3 this round (this was first Over this round to occur outside the Oilers-Flames series), but Overs improved to 34-24-2 (58.6 percent).

MLB: Faves went 11-4 with upsets the Dodgers (+ 110 in 7-4 win at Phillies for their 7th straight victory), Diamondbacks (+ 130 in 7-6 win at the Cubs), Padres (+ 125 in 2-1 win at the Giants) and Rockies (+ 125 in 11-3 win vs Mets in Game 2 of doubleheader). Road teams went 8-7. Over/Unders split 7-7-1 with the push in the Cardinals’ 5-4 win at the Pirates with a betting total of 9 runs.

More MLB: Faves lead 356-227 SU (61.1 percent) on season with 14 games closing pick-'em (faves usually win about 59 percent percent, so faves still ahead of that pace). Home teams lead just 306-291 (51.3 percent, usually closer to 54 closer). Unders lead 303-263-31 (53.5 percent), down from being 60 percent just 26 days ago.

USFL: Stallions (-6.5) beat the Panthers 33-17 to remain the league’s only undefeated team at 6-0 SU and ATS (game went Over betting total of 37.5 points). Earlier, the Stars + 2.5 pulled minor upset in 35-27 win vs. the Bandits (flew Over 40.5). Faves/dogs split 1-1 SU and ATS on the day while Overs went 2-0. On the season, faves lead 14-8 SU but just 11-10-1 ATS. Overs now lead 13-9 (59.1 percent) as the Over has hit in 8 straight games and 9-1 since Unders led 8-4 after the first three weeks.

Sunday’s Takes

Panthers -110 at Lightning: All three higher-seeded teams are short road faves in Game 3s of their series on Sunday. I trust the Panthers, winners of the President’s Trophy, to get back in their series as they trail the defending champion Lightning 2-0. We usually see lower-seed teams go down 2-0 and bounce back at home, but here we’re asking the higher-seeded team to show some pride (and talent) and we’re just laying the standard -110 as if this is a 50/50 ATS proposition, so I feel warranted to breaking my “dog-or-pass” rule.

Pass on NBA: I know the Mavericks are in the zig-zag role after losing the first two games at the Warriors (just like they lost the first two game at the Suns before bouncing back to win two home games to even the series), but I just can’t lay the 2 points with the Mavericks on Sunday. I’d rather wait again for the Heat + 7 at the Celtics again on Monday.

MLB dogs: We’re on a nice little run with baseball, and even though we went 2-0 with dogs on Saturday on a day when faves 11-4, we don’t like the dogs on Sunday’s getaway day. The one play I’m considering is the White Sox + 150 or better in Game 2 of their doubleheader at the Yankees. Either they’ll be trying to earn a split if they drop Game 1, or the Yankees will be in an anti-swagger spot after having their 7-game winning streak snapped (correction: I mistakenly stated the Yankees would be in a anti-swagger spot, but their winning streak was actually snapped Thursday; regardless, I felt the White Sox were the play in Game 2; wish I had played them in Game 1!).

Gamblers-Generals Over 39.5: Unfortunately I passed on the two Overs in Saturday’s games (I trust some followers bet them anyway as they improved to 9-1 the past 4.5 weeks since I said the trend was likely to turn). My favorite Over of the week is in Sunday afternoon’s game. The Gamblers entered the week with the USFL’s best Over record at 4-1. I lean to the Gamblers + 7 vs the Generals, but I like the Over better.

Good luck today (and every day!).

 

 

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