Tuley's Takes Today: Saturday recap, updated betting stats, Sunday best bets 5/15

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN senior reporter) 

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Saturday was an action-filled day in the Tuley’s Takes office even though the NBA took the day off. It was also another family-filled day for yours truly as we had a family swim in our pool and grilled some ribeyes for dinner.

We wish our betting had gone as well as we lost our Best Bet again as the Giants were shut out by the Cardinals. That dropped our record to 52-38-1 ATS (57.8 percent) with our top play of the day the past 91 days (that 13 full weeks since starting our run with the Bengals + 4.5 on Super Sunday).

We also lost on the Padres as their bullpen blew a late lead and our NHL chalk parlay also lost as faves went just 2-1 in Game 7s. At least we won with the Generals + 2.5 against the Breakers in the USFL and we also won with the Phillies + 170, so it’s always great to win the last bet of the day.

Let’s recap the rest of Saturday’s betting results and try to get back to our winning ways with our Best Bets on Sunday.

Saturday’s recaps

NHL: Faves (all at home) went 2-1 in Saturday's Game 7s with wins by Hurricanes (-145 in 3-2 win vs. Bruins) and Oilers (-215 in 2-0 win vs. Kings). The upset was by the two-time defending champion Lightning in 2-1 win at the Maple Leafs). All 3 games stayed Under their totals.

More NHL: Faves (on 11-2 run last 4 nights) 31-18 SU in playoffs. Home teams lead 30-19. The zig-zag went 1-2 Saturday (win by Hurricanes but losses by Maple Leafs and Kings), but still 23-18 SU overall. Overs dipped to 30-18-1 (62.5 percent), still 22-10-1 (68.8 percent) in the last 9 days after 8-8 start.

MLB: Faves/dogs split 8-8 with most notable upsets by the Nationals (+ 121 in 13-6 rout to snap Astros' 11-game winning streak), Cardinals (+ 108 in 4-0 win to snap Giants' 6-game win streak) and Phillies (+ 170 in 8-3 win at Dodgers). Home teams went 10-6. Over/Unders split 8-8.

More MLB: Faves lead 298-193 SU (60.7 percent) on season with 11 games closing pick-'em (faves usually win closer to 59 percent SU, so faves still ahead of that pace). Home teams improved to 257-245. Unders still lead 257-222-23 (53.7 percent), though still down from being 60 +  just 19 days ago.

USFL: Generals (+ 3.5) upset the Breakers 27-17 in Saturday's lone USFL game (went Over betting total of 37.5 points). Favorites dip to 1-1 SU and ATS so far in Week 5 and 12-6 SU and 9-8-1 ATS on the season. Overs are 2-0 so far this week and totals are back to .500 at 9-9 on season after Unders led 8-4 after Week 3.

NBA: There were no playoff games on Saturday, but here’s the updated betting stats heading into Sunday’s Game 7s as the 2nd round comes to a close. Faves lead 15-9 SU this round, but 12-12 ATS, 45-22 SU and 38-29 ATS (56.7 percent) overall. Home teams 18-6 SU and 17-7 ATS this round, 42-25 SU but just 35-32 ATS. The zig-zag was 2-0 ATS on Friday (wins by Celtics and Warriors), 14-6 ATS in round, 30-25 ATS overall. Unders 15-9 in round, 42-25 (62.7 percent) overall.

Sunday’s Takes

Bucks + 5 at the Celtics: We welcome the NBA back as we have two Game 7s on Sunday. We’re taking the defending champs and hopefully they show their championship metal like the Lightning did in the NHL. We’ve also seen these two teams make the adjustments necessary to bounce back as the ultimate zig-zag series as they’ve alternated wins throughout. We’re also taking the Mavericks + 6.5 in their Game 7 at the Suns.

USFL Overs: We love hearing from readers who use lessons they’ve learned from our columns to help them find winners even if I don’t give them out in these columns. I’ve heard from a couple of readers these past few weeks after I stopped recommending USFL Unders because we felt the books had caught up to the trend. Since then, Overs have gone 5-1 to get back to .500 and those readers took it upon themselves to flip-flop to the Overs. I wish I had been betting these, but glad that others have benefitted. Well, I do like Overs in the two games on Sunday: Stallions-Stars Over 36.5 and Gamblers-Maulers Over 34.

MLB dogs: We have two anti-swagger plays on Sunday as the Astros and Giants both had winning streaks snapped on Saturday, so we’re taking the Nationals + 1.5 + 1-5 (and also a little + 180) vs. the Astros and the Cardinals + 150 vs. the Giants. It’s also been saving our bankroll these past few days by betting the Phillies vs. the Dodgers, so we’ll probably play them though we’re waiting for more information on who will be pitching for the Dodgers (it might be a bullpen game) as the early line I’ve been seeing is just Phillies + 100 (even money).

NHL: Hockey has been a leak on my bankroll recently, but give me the Penguins + 125 at the Rangers in their Game 7.

Good luck today (and every day!).

 

 

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