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Tuley's Takes Today: Saturday recap, updated betting stats, Sunday best bets 5/1

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN senior reporter) 

May 1, 2022 05:15 AM
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Saturday was another action-packed day in the Tuley’s Take home office, even though both the NBA and NHL took a day off.

It was mostly a day of trading money. We went 1-2 with our MLB swagger/anti-swagger plays as the Indians (-1.5 + 120) came through in their 3-1 win at the A’s, but we lost on the Rays -1.5 + 125 and our Best Bet of the day, the Nationals + 1.5 -105 at Giants. That dropped our record to 48-28-1 ATS (63.2 percent) with our top play of the day the past 11 weeks (77 days inclusive since Super Sunday).

We also split our USFL Under plays as we lost our preferred play on the Gambits-Gamblers Under 39 but easily won with the Breakers-Stallions Under 44.5.

Let’s recap the rest of Saturday’s betting action and then try to get back on the winning track on Sunday with the resumption of the NBA playoffs plus some more MLB plays and USFL Unders.

Saturday’s recaps

MLB: Faves went 8-7 Saturday with the upsets by the Tigers (+ 290 in 5-1 win at Dodgers late Saturday), Twins (+ 175 at Rays), Orioles (+ 163 vs. Red Sox), Diamondbacks (+ 145 at Cardinals), Pirates (+ 144 vs. Padres), Phillies (+ 114 at Mets) and Rangers (+ 102 vs. Braves). Home teams went 9-6. Unders went 11-4.

More MLB: Faves lead 197-116 SU (63.4 percent) on young season with 4 games closing pick-'em. Home teams lead 166-151 after road teams actually led 65-63 earlier in season. Unders went 11-4 (after only 28-29-1 last 4 days) and lead 177-125-15 (58.6 percent).

USFL: Stallions (+ 6) upset Breakers 22-13 to become the last undefeated team at 3-0 (game stayed Under betting total of 45 points). Earlier, the Bandits (-3) beat the Gamblers 27-26, but did NOT cover (game went Over low total of 39). Faves/dogs split 1-1 SU but dogs went 2-0 ATS on Saturday. On the season; faves lead 7-3 SU and 5-4-1 ATS. Over/Unders split 1-1 on Saturday, but Unders still lead 6-4 overall.

NBA: There weren’t any NBA playoff games on Saturday, but just a reminder on how the betting trends went in the 1st round as the 2nd round starts on Sunday. Faves finished 30-13 SU and 24-19 ATS (55.8 percent) in the 1st round. Home teams went 24-19 SU while road teams actually led 25-18 ATS (58.1 percent). Zig-zag went 16-19 ATS and doesn’t resume until Game 2s in these 2nd-round series. Unders dominated at 27-16 (62.8 percent) -- 33-16 (67.3 percent including 6-0 in the play-in tournament).

Sunday’s Takes

White Sox + 100 vs. Angels: I’m fading the Angels as an anti-swagger play as they just had their 6-game winning streak snapped on Saturday and now have a getaway game on Sunday. The White Sox let us down the other day in a swagger role, but hopefully Saturday’s win also has them coming out of their recent slump. Another play Sunday is on Tigers, who are a swagger play after beating the Dodgers on Saturday night to snap their 6-game losing streak. I’m not sure I’ll be willing to take them + 210 on the full-game money line against Walker Buehler, but give me Tigers + 1.5 -105.

Bucks + 4.5 at Celtics: I almost made this my Best Bet of the day, but just like the White Sox a little more. Still, while the Celtics are certainly playing great, I think this line is a little high as the defending champion Bucks will be a tough out. I’m passing on the Grizzlies + 2 as home dogs in Game 1 of their series against the Warriors. If they drop Game 1, I’ll probably be on them in Game 2.

Maulers-Panthers Under 38.5: This is my preferred play on Sunday’s USFL Unders after splitting 1-1 on Saturday. We’re also on the Generals-Stars Under 40.5 as Unders are 6-4 so far on the season.

Good luck today (and every day!).

 

 

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