Tuley's Takes Today: Saturday recap, updated ATS stats, Sunday Best Bets 6/5

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN senior reporter) 

June 5, 2022 07:03 AM
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Saturday was a fun day in the Tuley’s Takes home office as we hosted our middle daughter Peyton’s high school graduation party.

But there was still plenty of time to following our horse racing and sports picks during the day, and it was another successful day as we won our Best Bet on the Avalanche-Oilers Under 7, improving our record to 8-1 ATS the past 9 days with our top play of the day. We did lose our MLB play on the Twins vs. the Blue Jays, but at least happy that we passed on the other 3 dogs we were considering as they went 1-2.

Let’s recap the rest of Saturday’s betting results and try to keep the good times rolling on Sunday.

Saturday’s recaps

NHL: Avalanche beat Oilers 4-2 Saturday night to take commanding 3-0 lead in Western Conference Finals. The Avalanche won as -125 road favorite (improving to 6-0 on road in this year’s playoffs) and also covered -1.5 puck line on late empty-net goal. The game still stayed Under the betting total of 7 goals.

More NHL: Faves improved to 3-2 in the conference finals round (Avalanche 3 wins as chalk; Rangers 2 wins as dogs). Faves lead 50-28 overall. Home teams dipped to 4-1 this round and 48-30 overall. Unders took a 3-2 lead in the round. Overs still lead 42-34-2 (55.3 percent) overall.

MLB: Faves split 8-8 on Saturday with the biggest upsets by the Royals (+ 180 in 6-0 shutout vs. Astros), (Mets (+ 160 in 9-4 win at Dodgers), Nationals (+ 120 in 10-8 win at Reds) and Padres (+ 115 in 4-0 shutout at Brewers). Home teams went 10-6. Over/Unders split 8-8.

More MLB: Faves are 473-304 SU (60.9 percent) with 17 games closing pick-'em (faves usually win about 59 percent, so faves ahead of that pace). Home teams improve to 412-382 (51.9 percent, but usually closer to 54 percent). Unders lead 394-362-38 (52.1 percent), way down from 60 percent just over a month ago.

USFL: Stallions beat Breakers 10-9 on a controversial late FG that went just inside upright to remain the only undefeated USFL team at 8-0. The Stallion did NOT cover as 3-point faves. The game stayed Under 44.5, Faves are 22-8 SU on the season but just 15-14-1 ATS. Overs still lead 18-12 (60 percent).

NBA: No games since Thursday, but here’s the betting stats heading into Sunday’s Game 2 of the NBA Finals. Underdogs (the Celtics in Game 1) and road teams started 1-0 SU and ATS in NBA Finals, while Overs also started 1-0. Faves dipped to 54-28 SU and 47-35 ATS (57.3 percent) overall. Home teams dipped to 49-33 SU and 42-40 ATS (51.2 percent) overall. Unders still lead 48-34 (58.5 percent) overall. The zig-zag was 7-3 ATS in the conference finals round and leads 37-30 ATS (note: Warriors in that role after losing Game 1).

Sunday’s Takes

Celtics + 4 at Warriors: We hate these 3-day gaps in the NBA Finals schedule as we prefer the regular every-other-day sked. We’ve been waffling back and forth on whether to bet the Celtics in Game 2. They already won on them in Game 1 and stole home-court advantage for the series bet we recommended in Points Spread Weekly and in these daily columns. They don’t “need” this game and the Warriors are in the zig-zag role and I usually don’t like fading that, but I still can’t pass up the + 4 as our Best Bet of the day.

Rangers + 150 at Lightning: I feel the same trepidation about betting the Rangers in this spot as the two-time defending champion Lighting as trying to avoid going down 3-0, but this too much value to pass up (though betting less than I did in Games 1 and 2 when they were + 105).

Panthers-Stars Under 47.5: I also gave this out in PSW back on Wednesday and have been recommending that readers bet it early in these daily columns. I have it at 45, so it’s just a slight advantage and I’d pass at Under 46.5 or lower.

MLB dogs: I haven’t had that much confidence in the dogs in this weekend’s series (was glad I made that call as faves were 12-3 on Friday; faves/dogs split 8-8 Saturday, but most of the winning dogs were + 120 or less), so I’m passing on Sunday as it looks chalky and no dogs really stand out.

Good luck today (and every day!).

 

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