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Tuley's Takes Today: Saturday recap, Sunday NFL (and MLB) picks (9-26)

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN.com senior reporter) 

September 26, 2021 05:07 AM
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Saturday was a frustrating day here in the Tuley’s Takes home office as we went 1-4 ATS with our best bets (2-4 ATS for the week including Wake Forest on Friday night), but at least we won for the sixth straight day with the Cardinals covering the run line against the Cubs.

Let’s get to the general recaps, including a look in Contest Corner, and then turn our attention to Sunday’s NFL card. As we’ve stated before, these are mostly plays from Wednesday’s Point Spread Weekly, but we update them here with the current lines.

Friday’s betting recaps

MLB: Cardinals (-145) beat Cubs 8-5 Saturday for their 15th straight win. Favorites went 10-5 with the biggest upset by the Diamondbacks (+ 220 vs. Dodgers). Faves lead 1,334-912 (59.4 percent) on the season with 54 games closing pick-'em. Unders went 9-6 Saturday to increase slim lead to 1,100-1,093-101 (50.2 percent).

CFB: Struggling to stay up late Saturday to recap the betting results, I was constantly reminded that parity exists in CFB as much -- if not more -- than the NFL these days and why we believe betting dog-or-pass is the way to go: Oregon State (+ 10.5) upset USC 45-27, No. 3 Oregon (-30) failed to cover in 41-29 win vs. Arizona, Cal (+ 7.5) covered in 31-24 OT loss at Washington. Earlier in games between Top 25 teams, No. 12 Notre Dame (+ 6.5) upset Wisconsin 41-13 and No. 16 Arkansas (+ 4.5) upset Texas A/M 20-10; other upsets included NC State (+ 10.5) over No. 9 Clemson 27-21, Baylor (+ 7) over Iowa St. 31-29, Georgia Tech (+ 14.5) over No. 21 UNC 45-22. 

Contest Corner

College Pick’em at William Hill in Nevada: Underdogs went 17-13 ATS on Saturday in the 30 games listed on the contest sheet and are 49-41 ATS (54.4 percent) through the first 3 weeks of the 10-week contest. Standings will be updated Monday morning.

Circa Sports Million III Top 5 Most-Selected Teams for NFL Week 3 are the Raiders -4 vs. Dolphins, Rams + 1.5 vs. Buccaneers, Packers + 3.5 at 49ers, Dolphins + 4 at Raiders and Cardinals -7.5 at Jaguars. Since the Raiders and Dolphins are facing each other, the No. 6 team is the Washington Football Team %plusssign% at the Bills.

In Circa Survivor, 1,468 of the entrants still alive took the Broncos in Week 3. There are already 736 players that are through to Week 4 because they took the Panthers on Thursday Night Football. There’s another dropoff to 340 on the Ravens and 126 on the Browns.

Consensus plays and plays from all contestants in the Westgate’s SuperContest and SuperContest Gold will be posted Sunday morning.

Sunday’s Takes

Before getting to the NFL, let’s fire again on the Cardinals on the run line at -1.5 -110 at the Cubs. It’s not an underdog, but we’re laying the standard -110 that we do with ATS underdogs. The Cardinals are going for their 16th straight win (and a 7th straight for us since we jumped on the streak last Monday).

Jaguars (+ 7.5) vs. Cardinals: We've been waiting to bet this ugly home dog as it’s up to 8 at the Westgate SuperBook, DraftKings and Bovada. Hopefully the public bets it even higher before kickoff.

Lions (+ 8.5) vs. Ravens: We advised yesterday to grab the 8.5 if you could. This line has dipped to 8 and even 7.5 at a lot of books, so lock in the best number you can get if you’re with us on the Lions.

Saints (+ 3) at Patriots: We also advised grabbing the 3 with the Saints yesterday, but there were still some available on Sunday morning though most books are charging -120 to take them now.

Falcons (+ 3) at Giants: Same thing as the Saints game, grab the Falcons now before the line dips below a field goal -- and it has at a lot of books. I would pass on the Falcons at that price, though still playable in 6-point teasers up to + 8.5.

Bengals (+ 4) at Steelers: Well, that 4 is long gone since Ben Roethlisberger was reported as being banged up and nursing a pectoral injury on Tuesday. I still consider the Bengals as a very live dog and would still take the + 3, but please don’t wait in case it goes to 2.5 (though, again, a prime teaser option).

Jets (+ 10.5) at Broncos: I know this is another ugly pick, but I can’t pass up a double-digit dog in the NFL. The Broncos are 2-0, but let’s not get carried away. The 10.5 still looks pretty solid, though some books have dipped to 10.

Buccaneers-Rams Under 55.5: The Game of the Week is on Sunday afternoon. Yes, both offenses are on a roll, but this should be a tough battle, so I’m expecting both of these stellar defenses to step up and keep it Under this high total.

 

Good luck today (and every day!).

 

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