Tuley's Takes Today: Saturday recap, NFL Sunday picks (10-3)

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN.com senior reporter) 

October 3, 2021 03:46 AM
Lamar_Jackson

Saturday was a thrilling day from start to finish here in the Tuley’s Takes home office, though we were disappointed to go 2-4 ATS in our best bets posted in Point Spread Weekly and in this daily version of our column.

Minnesota and Liberty came through for us by not only covering their small spreads but winning outright, but Georgia Tech, Eastern Michigan. Southern Mississippi and Northwestern all came up short.

We hope we can follow up a losing Saturday with a winning Sunday like we did last weekend.

But, first, let’s give our general recaps for Saturday’s betting action and a glance at Contest Corner.

Saturday’s betting recaps

CFB: No. 1 Alabama (-15) routed No. 12 Mississippi 42-21 and No. 2 Georgia (-16.5) routed No. 8 Arkansas 37-0, but No. 3 Oregon was upset 31-24 in OT by Stanford (+ 8.5, + 270 on money line). In another marquee game, No. 7 Cincinnati (-2) beat No. 9 Notre Dame 24-13. Hawai'i (+ 11.5, + 335 on money line) upset No. 18 Fresno State 27-24 late Saturday. Other Top 25 teams to get upset Saturday by unranked teams were No. 10 Florida by Kentucky (+ 7.5), No. 15 Texas A/M by Mississippi State (+ 7) and No. 20 UCLA by Arizona State (+ 3).

MLB: Red Sox (-154) beat Nationals 5-3 Saturday to move into a tie for the top AL wild-card spot with the Yankees, who were routed 12-2 by the Rays (+ 117). Meanwhile, Blue Jays (-260 vs. Orioles) and Mariners (-185 vs. Angels) won and are one game back heading into the final day of the regular season. In the NL West, Dodgers (-147) beat Brewers 8-3 to pull within one game of the Giants, who lost 3-2 to the Padres (+ 140). Favorites went 9-6 overall Saturday and lead 1,393-945 (59.6 percent) on the season with 55 games closing pick-'em. Overs went 10-4-1 Saturday, cutting Unders' slim lead on the season to 1,149-1,134-104 (50.3 percent).

Contest Corner

Circa Sports Million Top 5 Most-Selected Teams for NFL Week 4 are Buccaneers -6.5 at Patriots, Seahawks 3 at 49ers, Ravens 1 at Broncos, Vikings 2 vs. Browns & Chargers -3 vs. Raiders (Monday Night Football). The Top 5 is 9-6 so far this season.

Circa Survivor is down to 2,898 live entries after 19 failed to put in a pick for Week 4. There are already 942 that have advanced to Week 5 with the Bengals' narrow escape on Thursday Night Football. The Bills are by far the No. 1 choice with 1,133 using them vs. the Texans.

The Westgate SuperContest posts its Top 5 and Consensus plays on Sunday morning as its deadline isn’t until 11:59 p.m. PT on Saturdays.

Sunday’s Takes (and Monday, too)

We mostly address the line movements here and how they impact our picks made earlier in the week in Point Spread Weekly; for more details on my reasoning for each pick, see PSW or the NFL Best Bets file at VSiN.com:

Falcons (+ 1.5) vs. Washington: We were expecting this game to have a change of favoritism. That hasn’t happened yet, though most books had game down to 1 point. As of late Saturday night, the line was back to 1.5 at most books, which makes it a prime game to tease the underdog up to + 7.5 in 6-point teasers.

Lions (+ 3) at Bears: We recommended in this space on Wednesday and Thursday to take the Lions ASAP. We were starting to see more and more books going to + 3 -120. It appeared to be leveling off at 3, but now it appears to be heading down again after it was announced Saturday that rookie QB Justin Fields would be starting for the Bears.

Vikings (+ 2) vs. Browns: This line was pretty solid all week at 2, which was fine with us, especially as we’re looking for Kirk Cousins to lead the Vikings to the outright upset as short home underdogs and get back to .500 at 2-2. However, the Vikings are proving to be a popular dog play (see Contest Corner below) and the line is down to 1 at a lot of books in Vegas and even at pick-’em at a few books. If teasing the Vikings, don’t wait as the line might continue to drop.

Panthers (+ 5) at Cowboys: This line is down to 4.5 and a few 4’s are starting to pop up, so grab the best number you can if you’re with us on the Panthers. 

Cardinals (+ 5) at Rams: The 5’s are also gone here, so grab the Cardinals ASAP to get as many points as possible just in case. The line is down to 4 at most books – another reason why you need to be reading Point Spread Weekly each week to be able to jump on some of these bets early.

Ravens (+) 1.5 at Broncos: We added this game to this list on Thursday as all the 1.5s were gone and some books even moving to pick-’em. We could definitely see a change in favorites here, especially after Lamar Jackson was cleared to play on Saturday.

Raiders (+ 3.5) at Chargers: We’ve seen this drop from 3.5 to where it’s now a mix of -3/-3.5 with -120 attached to the side you want. Grab the + 3.5 -110 if you’re with us and you can get it.

Good luck today (and every day!).

 

 

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