Tuley's Takes Today: Saturday recap, Contest Corner, NFL best bets (12/12)

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN.com senior reporter) 

December 12, 2021 05:14 AM
Jared_Goff

Saturday was another sports betting day here in the Tuley’s Takes home as we enjoyed everything from the Army-Navy game to an upset-filled UFC card.

We hope you were with us on the Army-Navy Under as it hit for the 16th straight time. I originally gave it out Friday at Under 34.5 as I fully expected it to get bet even lower as more people heard about the trend. However, the public (which loves to bet Overs to begin with) came in on the Over and it closed at 35.5. That looked like the right move as both teams scored TDs on their opening drives and there were 14 points scored just halfway through the first quarter, but then play returned to normal and we just needed to avoid a late drive to get the cash.

Let’s recap Saturday’s betting action, including a Contest Corner update on the Circa contests, and then update our NFL best bets for Sunday from Point Spread Weekly with the current lines.

Saturday’s recaps

CFB: Navy rallied to upset Army 17-13 after trailing 13-7 at halftime. Navy closed as a 7-point underdog and + 250 on the money line. The game stayed Under the closing total of 35.5 points, which was the 16th straight Under in the series, after being bet as low as 34.5 earlier in the week before getting bet back higher.

NBA: Faves went 4-2 Saturday with the Nuggets-Spurs game closing pick-’em, but dogs led 4-2 ATS as the Magic (+ 8.5 at the Clippers) and Rockets (+ 8 at the Grizzlies) covered in SU losses. The upsets were by the Heat (+ 1.5 vs. Bulls) and 76ers (+ 3 vs. Warriors). Over/Unders split 3-3-1 on the day with the push in the Jazz-Wizards (221) game. Dogs lead 46-31-1 ATS (59.7 percent) in December with 1 pick-'em. Unders lead 212-180-6 (54.1 percent) on the season, but Overs still lead 43-34-2 (55.8 percent) in December.

CBB: No. 9 Alabama beat No. 14 Houston 83-82 late Saturday, but did NOT cover as 3-point fave. No. 21 Ohio State (-5) covered in 73-55 win vs. No. 22 Wisconsin. Notre Dame (+ 4.5) upset No. 10 Kentucky 66-62. Oklahoma (+ 1.5) upset No. 12 Arkansas 88-66. Creighton (+ 5) upset No. 24 BYU 83-71.

NHL: Faves went 6-5 with the Stars-Sharks game closing pick-'em. Upsets were by the Senators (+ 156 vs. Lightning), Blue Jackets (+ 130 at Kraken), Bruins (+ 115 at Flames), Hurricanes (+ 100 at Oilers) and Kings (+ 117 vs. Wild). Unders went 7-5.

UFC: Julianna Pena defeated Amanda Nunes via submission to win the women's bantamweight title in the co-main event of UFC 269 at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas late Saturday night. Pena did it as a consensus + 700 underdog (she closed as high as + 775 at Circa Sports. The fight went Over the total of 1.5 rounds. Charles Oliveira beat Dustin Poirier via submission in the 3rd round to win the featherweight title fight in the last fight of the night of UCF 269. Oliveira did it after closing as a + 115 underdog. The fight went Over 1.5 rounds.

Contest Corner

CircaSurvivor has 23 live entries remaining for the guaranteed $6 million prize pool, which is winner-take-all or chopped by those eliminated last in the same week. Only 6 teams were used by the contestants this week: Broncos (9), Chargers (6), Titans (4), Seahawks (2), Saints (1) and Packers (1).

CircaSportsMillion Top 5 Most-Selected Teams (35-30 on the season) for NFL Week 14 are the Washington Football Team + 4.5 vs. Cowboys, Bills + 3.5 at Buccaneers, Cardinals -2.5 vs. Rams, Bengals + 1.5 vs. 49ers and Ravens + 3 at Browns.

The Westgate SuperContest will release its Top 5 consensus plays (and selections of all contestants) on Sunday morning as its submission deadline isn’t until 11:59 p.m. PT Saturdays.

Sunday’s Takes

Raiders + 9.5 at Chiefs: I originally posted that I didn’t think this would get to 10, but then we saw 10’s popping up all over on Thursday. Then, William Hill and Station Casinos here in Vegas went back down to 9.5, so I hope you grabbed the + 10.

Ravens + 2.5 at Browns: I wrote Thursday that Circa and some offshores have gone to 3 and that we should wait, and sure enough we saw more books at Ravens + 3 (though don’t lay the extra -120 juice if you don’t have to). I also recommended the Ravens as a top two-team, 6-point teaser play as we move the Ravens to + 8.5 (or 9) just in case. My top recommendation in PSW was to use Ravens + 8.5 with the 49ers teased from + 1.5 to + 7.5 at the Bengals, but there was a change of favorite so the preferred side would now be the Bengals teased from + 1.5 to + 7.5 or 8 (though there’s a decent chance a two-team, 6-point teaser hits no matter how we play it if the game comes down to a FG. Other teaser options are the Seahawks teased down from -7.5 (or -8 or -8.5 at most books) to -1.5 (or -2 or -2,5) and the Rams teased up from + 2.5 to + 8.5 at the Cardinals on Monday night.

Washington + 4 vs. Cowboys: Here in Vegas, the South Point went to Cowboys -5 and then settled back at -4.5, so I don’t think it’s going any higher so grab the Football Team + 4.5.

Lions + 8 at Broncos: This line had also gone up to Broncos -8.5 on Wednesday, so I advised to wait. It then went to 10 at nearly every book with reports of COVID positives for Detroit and several Lions being out. The line is up to 11.5, but I’m still on the Lions as RB Jamaal Williams is the loss I’m most concerned with and believe they can plug in someone to still get the job done, so grab the best number you can.

Good luck today (and every day!).

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