Saturday was a fun day in the Tuley’s Takes home office with MLB, NFL preseason and horse racing action to keep us entertained while juggling some “honey do” list items before the regular season starts (including shopping for a new dishwasher; I’d rather be shopping for lines).
The worst part of the day was losing my Best Bet on the Seahawks + 3.5 vs. the Steelers in “Bad Beat” fashion. I’ve had worse beats for sure as the Seahawks were trailing several times by more than the spread, but I felt great with my handicapping of the game as one of the main reasons I liked the pick was because of Seattle QB Drew Lock battling Geno Smith for the starting job (and I even wrote “I expect Lock to get most of the snaps in the second half when this game is likely to be decided”). Sure enough, Lock rallied the Seahawks to tie the game at 18-18 and again at 25-25. He even was back on the field with a chance to win the game, but his late fumble led to the Steelers’ winning drive. It was also a Bad Beat as we still would have won our bet if the Steelers had settled for a FG or if the game ended in a tie, but instead Pittsburgh rookie QB Kenny Pickett threw a 24-yard TD pass to Tyler Vaughns with just 3 seconds left on the clock for the win and unlikely cover.
I’m still 3-1 ATS with my posted preseason plays, so I can’t complain (too much).
Earlier in the day, I did win with my other NFL preseason play on the Panthers + 3 as they beat the Commanders 23-21.
I lost my top MLB 1st 5 Inning wager on the Phillies 1st 5 + 150 at Mets. Aaron Nola did his part as he held the Mets to just 1 run through 5 innings, but the Phillies’ offense wasn’t able to get to Jacob deGrom as they trailed 1-0. My other play on the Cardinals 1st 5 + 110 looked great as Adam Wainwright had a no-hitter and a shutout through 5 innings, but the Cardinals didn’t score either so I ended with a push at 0-0.
Let’s recap the rest of Saturday’s (full-game) betting results in MLB and the NFL preseason and look for more plays on Sunday.
NFL preseason: Underdogs went 4-3 SU and ATS Saturday with MIA-TB closing pick-'em. The upsets were by the Rams (+ 3 at Chargers), Panthers (+ 3 at Commanders), Bears (+ 1.5 vs. Chiefs) and Bills (+ 1 vs. Colts, though some might grade that closing line as pick-’em). The Steelers -2, Texans -2 and Broncos -4.5 covered as chalk. Home teams went 5-3. Overs also went 5-3.
More NFL preseason: Dogs lead 8-6 SU and 9-5 ATS in Preseason Week 1 with 1 pick-'em (MIA-TB);. Road teams lead 8-7 SU but home teams lead 8-7 ATS (the one discrepancy is the Patriots covering as a home dog vs. the Giants). Overs lead 12-3 heading into Sunday. Including the neutral-site Hall of Fame Game last week, dogs lead 8-7 SU with 1 PK and 9-6 ATS overall. Overs lead 13-3 after an 8-0 start.
MLB: Faves went 13-3 Saturday, led by the Dodgers (-310) routing the Royals 13-3 for their 12th straight win (and covering -1.5 run line in all 12 games). The only upsets were by the Nationals (+ 275 in 4-3 win vs. Padres), Cubs (+ 110 in 7-2 win at Red) and Angels (+ 100 in 5-3, 11-inning win vs. Twins late Saturday). Home teams went 9-7. Unders went 9-4-3 with pushes in CHC-CIN (9), ATL-MIA (8) and MIN-LAA (8).
More MLB: Faves lead 1,014-664 SU (60.4 percent) on the season with 26 pick-'ems (faves usually win around 59 percent; still ahead of pace; gap had been narrowing but now back over 60 percent). Home teams lead 900-803 (52.8 percent, usually closer to 54 percent but on the rise). Unders lead 833-780-88 (51.6 percent).
Vikings + 5 or 4.5 at Raiders: I usually prefer a team that already has a preseason game under its belt (though it didn’t help the Jaguars in their Friday night loss vs. the Browns), but this line opened Raiders -2.5 and has steamed up to 5 at some books and I don’t believe that’s warranted no matter how good the Raiders looked in their 27-11 Hall of Fame victory. Minnesota starting QB Kirk Cousins isi out with COVID, but Sean Mannion and Kellen Mond are battling for the backup job and should play plenty in this game. The Raiders got new coach Josh McDaniels a preseason win already, so the pressure is off and I expect him to be worrying more about player evaluation in the remaining preseason games.
Rangers 1st 5 -105 (or better) vs. Mariners: I lost with the Rangers/Martin Perez (9-3, 2.85 ERA, 1.18 WHIP) last week vs. the Astros, so this is an easier spot. After watching faves go 13-3 in these matchups on Saturday, I’m not too thrilled with many of the dogs on Sunday, but my 2nd choice would have to be the Diamondbacks/Henry 1st 5 + 105 at the Rockies/Feltner.
Good luck today (and every day!).