Tuley's Takes Today: Saturday betting recaps, updated MLB stats, Sunday Best Bets 7/31

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN.com senior reporter) 

Pablo_Lopez

Saturday was mostly spent snapping, frankly, at the Tuley’s Takes home office as I don’t think I was able to truly explain how exhausted I was after Friday’s orientation sessions at UNR, followed by the ordeal of our flight home being delayed more than 4 hours and then filing this column overnight and then “Team Tuley’s Thoroughbred Takes” on Saturday morning.

Fortunately, our (sports) Best Bet was affected as we won with the Rangers 1st 5 innings + 105 at the Angels after three straight days of pushing our Best Bet. The Rangers led 2-0 before Texas starter Glen Otto made his one mistake – pitching to Shotei Ohtani, who hit a 3-run homer – but the Rangers were able to rally to lead 5-4 after the first 5 innings! The Angels ended up winning 9-7, but it validated our decision to concentrate on 1st 5 bets.

We also cashed in our secondary bet with the A’s + 140 at the White Sox as Paul Blackburn came through for us with 5 shutout innings (exactly what you need from a 1st 5 pitcher, right?) and the A’s led 2-0 at that point. The White Sox rallied for the 3-2 victory to again vindicate the 1st-5 approach.

Let’s recap the rest of Saturday’s (full-game) betting results but look for 1st 5 inning opportunities on Sunday’s card.

Saturday’s recaps

MLB: Faves 11-4 with upsets by the Rockies (+ 198 in 5-3 win vs. Dodgers), Mariners (+ 171 in 5-4 win at Astros), Nationals (+ 120 in 7-6 win vs. Cardinals) and Twins (+ 120 in 7-4 win at Padres). The Mets (-195) beat the Marlins 4-0 for their 5th straight win. Home teams went 10-5. Overs 9-6.

More MLB: Faves lead 895-595 SU (60.1 percent) on the season with 25 pick-'ems (faves usually win around 59 percent; still ahead of pace; gap had been narrowing but now back over 60 percent). Home teams lead just 793-722 (52.3 percent, but usually closer to 54 percent). Unders still lead 746-697-70 (51.7 percent).

Sunday’s Takes

Marlins 1st 5 + 130 vs. Mets: Yes, I know the Mets are on a 5-game winning streak, but the Marlins are sending out Pablo Lopez (7-5, 3.03 ERA, 1.04 WHIP). The last time these two teams met (July 8), Lopez allowed just 1 run in 5 innings and the Marlins won the 1st 5 2-1 despite facing Chris Bassitt in New York, so I know they can do it again at home in Miami. Our long-shot second choices have been especially profitable lately, so let’s go with the Royals 1st 5, which should be well over + 200 when it’s posted in the morning. Zack Greinke starts for the Royals and he has a 1.92 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in his last starts, plus the Royals are 2-1 in those starts, so we’re trusting him to help navigate through the Yankee lineup (at least for 5 innings).

Good luck today (and every day!).

 

 

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