Happy Easter to everyone, whether you celebrate it in church or with chocolate bunnies (or both!).
Saturday was a bit of a letdown here in the Tuley’s Takes home office after a Good Friday – make that a Great Friday – but the bounces and close calls that went our way on Friday went against us on Saturday as we lost our Best Bet of the day on the Mavericks + 5.5 at the Jazz. We also lost our second NBA play on the Raptors at the 76ers, lost our first USFL bet on the New Jersey Generals + 3.5, went 1-2 with our recommended MLB underdogs (canceling out our 2-1 on Friday, though we’re still a little ahead thanks to plus-money) and split (thus lost) our top NHL 1P plays on the Golden Knights-Overs and Maple Leafs-Senators Friday (though hopefully followers hit a late parlay on the Devils-Kraken/Blue Jackets-Kings).
I’d call the Generals’ non-cover a “Bad Beat” as they were leading most of the game, including 24-21 into the final minute before the Birmingham Stallions scored a TD and kicked the all-important extra point to win 28-24. We also lost the Mavs bet by half a point, but I didn’t really consider that a Bad Beat. The Jazz were covering most of the second half. I did think we had it when the Mavs pulled within 2 with 3:35 to play, but it was a typical basketball endgame. The Mavs had their chances, but in the end the Jazz made their free throws to get the cover and the Mavs didn’t hit their late shots.
That did drop our Best Bet record to 40-22-1 ATS (64.5 percent) the past 9 weeks with our top play of the day.
Let’s recap the rest of Saturday’s betting action and try to get back on the winning track on Sunday.
Saturday’s recaps
NBA: Faves 3-1 SU and ATS in Saturday's 1st-round openers. The only upset was by the Timberwolves ( 6.5 at Grizzlies). The Jazz (-5.5 at Mavericks), 76ers (-4.5 vs. Raptors) and Warriors (-6.5 vs. Nuggets) covered in their wins. Overs went 3-1 after Unders went 6-0 in the play-in tournament.
USFL: Birmingham Stallions rallied to beat New Jersey Generals 28-24 in the season-opener of the renewal of the USFL. The Stallions also ended up covering as 2.5- to 3.5-point favorites. The game went Over the closing total of 39.5 points and earlier higher totals.
MLB: Faves went 9-5 with the Braves-Padres closing pick-'em. The upsets were by the A's (+ 185 at Blue Jays), Diamondbacks (+ 149 at Mets), Phillies (+ 116 at Marlins), Cardinals (+ 105 at Brewers) and Giants (-103 at Guardians). Road teams went 9-6. Unders went 10-4-1 with the push in the Angels’7 7-2 win at the Rangers with a betting total of 9.
More MLB: Faves (9-5 on Saturday with 1 PK) lead 74-52 SU on the young season with 2 games closing pick-’em. Road teams (9-6 on Saturday) reclaimed the overall lead on the season at 65-63, Unders (10-4-1 on Saturday) lead 71-48-9 (59.6 percent).
NHL: Faves went a perfect 14-0 on Saturday. The Kraken (-115 vs. Devils) needed the shootout to eventually win. The Blues (-114 vs. Wild) and Maple Leafs (-250 at Senators) needed OT. Only 6 of the 14 faves covered the -1.5 puck line. Overs went 9-5.
Sunday’s Takes
Nets + 4 at Celtics: We were happy to fade the Nets with the Cavaliers in the play-in tournaments (and luckily cashed as the underdog Cavs covered in the SU loss), but we’re happy to jump on them as they’re now in the underdog role in Game 1 of their series in Boston. The Nets are on a five-game winning streak (including that play-in game), plus I do think this is where the loss of Robert Williams will catch up with the Celtics.
Bulls + 10 at Bucks: The Bulls struggled the second half of the season, but this is still too many points, I believe, so I’ll take them. This is a mini-swagger play as the Bulls snapped a four-game losing streak in their season finale.
USFL Unders: I don't know enough about any of these teams to back any of the dogs on Sunday, but I'm on the Unders in all games and hoping to go at least 2-1: Gamblers-Panthers Under 42.5, Stars-Breakers Under 43, Bandits-Maulers Under 40.5.
Cardinals + 115 at the Brewers: This is the only underdog I really like on the whole MLB Sunday card. The early-week series look more promising.
Panthers-Red Wings 1P Over -200 (DraftKings): We might have to lay up to -200 on this or go Over 2 as that’s where most books were overnight with this having a game total of 7, though we did see Over 1.5 -170 at Resorts World here in Vegas, so shop around). The Panthers are still the top 1P Over team at 52-21 (71.2 percent).
Good luck today (and every day!).