Tuley's Takes Today: Saturday betting recaps, Sunday best bets (3/13)

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN.com senior reporter) 

March 13, 2022 08:03 AM
Aggies_celebrate

After the non-stop betting action on Thursday and Friday, Saturday kind of felt like a letdown for us here in the Tuley’s Takes home office as there were some noticeable lulls in the action. But it worked out overall as you’ll see all the dogs that were barking in all sports when we get to our daily recaps.

It was also fun to get out of the office and into the books to enjoy some of the action, but more on that in a bit.

We hit again with our top Best Bet of the day (20-7-1 ATS the past 28 days) as Texas A&M upset Arkansas outright to continue the Aggies’ run up the NCAA Tournament bubble. We also won with our No. 2 play with Virginia Tech upsetting Duke for the ACC title. We did lesser plays on Tulane vs. Houston and Saint Louis vs. Davidson while our NHL First-Period Overs also only went 1-2, including our loss on our preferred play of the Ducks-Devils 1P Over 1.5 -150.

I was sweating that out at Bar Canada at the D in downtown Las Vegas. I probably literally sounded like I was in pain as the first period came to a close. A fellow barfly asked if I had the 1P Over and I said yes. He then noticed my VSiN hat and asked where I got it. I said I worked there. He said his name was Tim from New Jersey and said he knew a lot of the guys at VSiN. I said I was Dave Tuley and I’ll never forget his reply: “No you’re not!!!” He said he followed me and the rest of our network’s coverage of the industry. I had to convince him that I wasn’t lying (maybe it was because I haven’t been on-air as much lately but just an invisible voice on Twitter and in my articles at VSiN.com, though that will change as I’ll be on “The Lookahead” with host Scott Seidenberg this Monday morning/Sunday night at 1:45 a.m. ET Monday/10:45 p.m. PT Sunday). Anyway, I was most flattered because I couldn’t imagine why he couldn’t believe it was little ole me, this mild-mannered reporter – and it also seemed inconceivable to me that he would entertain the idea that someone would go around claiming to be me!!!

But that made my day, even more than the upsets by the Aggies and Hokies.

Let’s get to the general recaps of Saturday’s betting action, and then try to keep the good times rolling on Sunday.

Saturday’s recaps

CBB: Virginia Tech (+ 2.5) upset No. 7 Duke 82-67 in ACC Championship Game to escape the “bubble” and steal the conference’s automatic NCAA bid. No. 2 Arizona (-2) and No. 6 Kansas (-2.5) covered in their 84-76 and 74-65 wins over No. 13 UCLA and No. 14 Texas Tech, respectively, in the Pac-12 and Big 12 title games. No. 8 Villanova (-6.5) beat Creighton 54-48 for the Big East title, but did NOT cover the spread. In the Big Ten semifinals, No. 9 Purdue (-6.5) beat Michigan State 75-70 and No. 24 Iowa beat Indiana 80-77 but both also failed to cover. In the SEC semifinals, Texas A/M (+ 6) continued its run on the bubble with an 82-64 upset of No. 15 Arkansas.

NBA: Underdogs went 5-2 SU and 5-1-1 ATS Saturday with upsets by the Warriors (+ 2 in 122-109 win vs, Bucks, snapping Milwaukee’s 6-game winning streak), Raptors (+ 7 in 127-115 win at Nuggets), Timberwolves (+ 3.5 in 113-104 win at Heat), Blazers (+ 6.5 in 127-118 win vs. Wizards) and Pacers (+ 1.5 in 119-108 win at Spurs). The push was in the Jazz’s 134-125 win vs. Kings as 9-point home favorite. The only chalk to cover Saturday was the Bulls (-4.5 in 101-91 win vs. Cavaliers). Unders went 4-3.

NHL: Underdogs went 5-4 on Saturday with the Blackhawks-Senators game closing pick-’em. The upsets were by the Blues (+ 120 in 7-4 win at Capitals), Kraken (+ 105 in 4-3 win at Canadiens), Rangers (+ 108 in 7-4 win at Stars), Sharks (+ 110 in 5-0 win vs. Kings) and Oilers (+ 114 in 4-1 win vs. Lightning). Unders went 6-4.

Sunday’s Takes

We’re sticking with our time-honored approach of backing highly motivated teams on the bubble against teams that are locks for the Big Dance, and thus not as motivated (especially with the point spread taken into effect). Here are my plays for Sunday in order of preference):

Texas A&M + 6.5 vs. Tennessee: If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it, right? This makes the third straight day I’m taking the Aggies as a Best Bet as it must be the first time I’ve done that since I was all over the St, Louis Cardinals during their long winning streak back in September, many days as underdogs. Even though Texas A&M has beaten Florida, Auburn and Arkansas in back-to-back-to-back, ESPN’s Joe Lunardi has the Aggies as the very last team into the NCAA Tournament, so it’s a very tenuous position.Tennessee is tough and coming off a 69-62 win over Kentucky in the SEC semifinals, but the Aggies should take this to the wire and maybe even steal the conferences automatic bid. 

Richmond + 4 vs. Davidson: This is the other potential bid stealer on Sunday. As the No. 4 seed in the Atlantic-10, Richmond (22-12) isn’t even on Lunardi’s bubble, but the Spiders can steal a bid with the A-10 title. Davidson, meanwhile, is probably safe with an at-large bid even if they lose after winning two games in the conference tourney. In addition, the first meeting saw Davidson winning by just 3 points, 87-84, so we’ll be expecting a similar down-to-the-wire result.

Parlay/round-robin of NHL First-Period Overs: We have three plays that qualify today under the parameters we usually look for (game with game totals of 6.5 and teams with solid overall records – or recent runs – with 1P Over). They are Maple Leafs-Sabres 1P Over 1.5 -150, Flames-Avalanche 1P Over 1.5 -140 and Panthers-Kings 1P Over -145. I really can’t decide which I like best as all three are around a combined 66-50 (give or take a game) on the season, according to stats from @PSUOtto on Twitter. The Maple Leafs are on a 7-game 1P Over run and 26-7 run while the Panthers are on a 22-6 run, so maybe give preference to those if betting straight.

Good luck today (and every day!).

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