Tuley's Takes Today: My Super Bowl betting recap (2/14)

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN.com senior reporter) 

February 13, 2022 11:24 PM
Cooper_Kupp_winning_TD

We hope everyone enjoyed the Super Bowl as much as we did here in the Tuley’s Takes home office. Of course, it helps that our best bet on the Bengals + 4.5 covered in the Rams’ come-from-behind 23-20 victory, plus the game stayed Under 48.5 (and Under 23.5 in the first half) while we also won the majority of our prop bets for good measure.

Let’s recap the betting highlights of Super Bowl LVI through the eyes of my @ViewFromVegas Twitter feed.

Super Bowl closing lines: after 2 weeks of wagers, the Los Angeles Rams closed as consensus 4.5-point favorites over the Bengals with an Over/Under of 48.5 points. The money line closed right where it started two weeks ago: Rams -200/Bengals + 175.

In one of the most popular Super Bowl props every year, Odell Beckham Jr. scored the first TD at odds of 8-1. The Rams took the 7-0 lead with 6:22 left in the first quarter (or 8:38 into the game), so there was NO score in the opening 7.5 minutes (+ 135 and minus money on earlier time markers: 3.5 minutes, 4.5 minutes, etc.).

Rams led Bengals 7-3 at the end of the 1st Quarter: the Rams covered as 0.5-point 1st-Quarter favorites (and -150 on 1Q money line) and it went Over the 1Q Total of 9.5 points.

Bengals pulled within 13-10 as Tee Higgins scored the 1st Bengals TD at 6-1 on a 6-yard TD pass from RB Joe Mixon. That also cashed for my prop on Over 2.5 different players to throw a pass (note: Johnny Hekker’s pass on the Rams’ botched 2-point conversion after their 2nd TD didn’t count as an official pass).

Rams led Bengals 13-10 at halftime. The ViewFromVegas is they pushed as 3-point,

1st-Half favorites while it stayed just Under the 1H Total of 23.5 points thanks to the failed conversion after the Rams’ 2nd TD.

When the Bengals took a 17-13 lead on Joe Burrow’s 75-yard TD pass to Tee Higgins on the 1st play from scrimmage in the 2nd half, that guaranteed Longest TD Over 42 yards would cash.

Rams took a 23-20 lead on Matthew Stafford's 1-yard TD pass to Cooper Kupp (and Matt Gay's PAT) with 1:25 left in regulation. That also cashed for Shortest TD Under 1.5 yards (8th time in 9 years).

Rams rallied to beat Bengals 23-20 in the Super Bowl. The ViewFromVegas is the Bengals covered as 4.5-point underdogs and the game stayed Under the betting total of 48.5 points. Note: all 6-point teaser combinations cashed, Largest Lead Under 14.5 points also cashed as the biggest lead was Rams 14-3.

Rams WR Cooper Kupp was named MVP of the Super Bowl. Kupp was around 6-1, shortest odds of any non-QB. Kupp had 8 catches for 92 yards and 2 TDs, but actually stayed Under his individual props of 8.5 receptions and around 104.5-108.5 yards.

We'll get Super Bowl handle and win figures on Monday, but books probably made out great with Rams winning but not covering, which is what most books were cheering for. Caesars books in Louisiana won more $9.5 million alone on Mattress Mack's well-publicized money-line bets on the Bengals.

Here's our story on the Bills and Chiefs being the early co-favorites around 7-1 to 8-1 to win Super Bowl 57 (aka SB57 and SBLII) next February at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Ariz. The Rams are the 3rd betting choice around 8-1 to 10-1.

For the record, here’s the rundown of my “takes” on on the Super Bowl:

Bengals + 4.5 WINNER

Lean Under 48.5 (prefer 1st Half Under 23.5) WINNER and WINNER

Bengals Score 1st (+ 110) LOSER

Score Tied After 0-0 (-110) LOSER

Largest Lead Under 14.5 (+ 100) WINNER

1st TD Stafford 30-1; 1st Rams TD Stafford 16-1 LOSERS

1st TD Burrow 30-1; 1st Bengals TD Burrow 14-1 LOSERS

Double Result: Halftime Tie/Rams win 12-1 LOSER

Double Result: Halftime Tie/Bengals win 16-1 LOSER

Rams Team Total Under 26.5 (+ 110) WINNER

Shortest TD Under 1.5 Yards (-150) WINNER

Longest TD Over 41.5 Yards (-110) WINNER

Total Sacks Under 5 (+ 120) LOSER

Cam Akers Rushing Yards Under 64.5 (-110 )WINNER

Cooper Kupp Under 8.5 Receptions (-110) WINNER

Cooper Kupp Under 108.5 Yards (-110) WINNER

Number of Different Players Throw Pass Over 2.5 (+ 150 WINNER)

Sunday’s other recaps

NBA: Faves went 2-0 SU and ATS on Sunday with the Celtics (-7.5) winning their 8th straight game as they beat and covered in their 105-95 win vs. the Hawks. In the only other NBA game on Super Sunday, the Timberwolves (-7.5) also covered in a 129-120 win at the Pacers. Over/Unders split 1-1.

CBB: No. 3 Purdue rallied to beat Maryland 62-61, but never came close to covering as a 16.5-point home favorite. No. 13 Illinois (-10.5) beat Northwestern 73-66 and No. 24 UConn (-4.5) beat St. John's 63-60, but neither of them covered either as dogs went 3-0 ATS in Sunday’s only three games involving ranked teams.

NHL: Faves went 3-1 Sunday with the lone upset by the Senators (+ 210 in 4-1 win at the Capitals). Penguins (-230 in 4-2 win vs. the Devils), Avalanche (-165 in 4-0 win at the Stars) and Sabres (-115 in 5-3 win at the Canadiens) won and all also covered -1.5 puck lines. Unders went 3-1. 

Monday’s Take

Pelicans + 4.5 vs. Raptors: This is an anti-swagger play against the Raptors, who just had an 8-game winning streak snapped in a 110-109 loss vs. the Nuggets on Saturday. They now have to travel to New Orleans and take on a Pelicans team that has been more competitive, winning four straight and covering five straight before failing to cover their two more recent games. The Pelicans also lost by only 4 points to the Raptors in their only previous meeting this season in Toronto, so trusting them can now do the same in this spot at home.

Good luck today (and every day!).

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