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Tuley's Takes Today: Monday's recaps, Contest Corner Tuesday picks (11/2)

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN.com senior reporter) 

November 2, 2021 02:07 AM
Astros

On Monday, we turned the calendar to November in the Tuley’s Takes home office, but it was just continuation of a banner weekend for underdog bettors as the Giants covered in their 20-17 loss to the Chiefs.

It’s always a great feeling when we have a right-side winner as the Chiefs were never leading by more than the spread. It also made us 3-2 ATS with our best bets on a weekend when most bettors took it on the chin as dogs were 10-4-1 ATS.

Let’s get to Monday’s general betting recaps as there’s a lot to unpack (including an update on the season-long betting stats in the NFL) and then we take a peek into Contest Corner with an update on the leaderboards in the Circa Sports Million and SuperContest as well as the first week with the top Circa Survivor choice (871 on the Bengals) going down in flames.

And then we have two best bets for Tuesday.

Monday’s recaps

NFL: Chiefs held off the Giants 20-17 on Monday Night Football to wrap up Week 8, but they did NOT cover after closing as 10.5-point home favorites as NFL underdogs finished off a great weekend at 10-4-1 ATS vs. our consensus closing lines. The game stayed way Under 53 points. Dogs were above .500 in Week 8 at 9-6 SU in addition to going 10-4-1 ATS. Road teams also dominated at 9-6 SU and 9-5-1 ATS (note: road dogs were 7-2-1 ATS while home dogs led 3-2 ATS). Unders led 8-7 on the weekend, including primetime Unders going 3-0.

More NFL: Faves are 71-48-1 SU on the season w/ 3 games closing pick-'em, but dogs lead 66-52-1 ATS (55.9 percent). Road teams are still above .500 at 64-55 SU with 3 neutral-site games and also lead 67-51-1 ATS (56.8 percent). Unders lead 66-54-2 (55 percent) while primetime Overs' lead slipped to 12-11-1 (remember when they started 6-0 and I wrote that these things were cyclical?). 

NBA: Underdogs went 5-4 SU Monday with upsets by Cavaliers (+ 5 at Hornets), 76ers (+ 2 vs. Blazers), Raptors (+ 7.5 at Knicks), Bulls (+ 2.5 at Celtics) and Magic (+ 8.5 at Timberwolves) and were 6-3 ATS as Thunder (+ 12.5 at Clippers) covered in 99-94 SU loss. Overs went 5-4.

NHL: Favorites went 3-0 on Monday as the Lightning (-140 in 3-2 win vs. Capitals), Blackhawks (-138 in 5-1 win of Senators) and Oilers (-240 in 5-2 win vs. Kraken) all won at home. Over/Unders split 1-1-1 with the push on Senators-Blackhawks (6).

Contest Corner

CircaSurvivor has 1,188 live entrants through NFL's Week 8 after 734 sweated out the Chiefs’ 20-17 win vs. the Giants on Monday Night Football after the Halloween massacre that saw 930 eliminated on Sunday, led by a week-high 871 on the Bengals in a 34-31 loss at the Jets. Other Sunday eliminations were the Chargers (38), Falcons (13), Browns (3), Buccaneers (2), Vikings (2) and Football Team (1). In addition, 6 were ousted on Thursday with the Cardinals while another 7 exited with “no pick” on Saturday for a total of 943 eliminated in Week 8.   

Circa Sports Million leader HANNIBAL BARCA-1 lost with the Chiefs -9.5 on MNF but is still on top at 31-9 (77.5 percent) and a half-point lead on OLD SCHOOL HUSTLERSA at 30-9-1. HANNIBAL BARCA-3 is also in a tie for 9th place through eight weeks. Note: the 2nd Quarter, which ended after Week 8 the last two years, ends after Week 9 this season.

SuperContest leader WOLFGANG went 3-2 in a tough week for a lot of contestants to hold onto the top spot at 29-10-1 (74.4 percent), a half-point ahead of XERRI and THE DOGERS (both at 29-11). SuperContest Gold leader is THE PROGNASTICATOR 2 at 27-12-1 (69.2 percent).

Tuesday’s Takes

Astros -1.5 + 155 vs. Braves: The World Series resumes on Tuesday back in Houston with the Braves leading 3-2. I still have my series bet on the Astros + 145, but instead of hedging I’m doubling down with a bet on the Astros on the run line in Game 6. I liked how the Astros came out swinging with their backs against the line in Game 5’s elimination game and won 9-5. I’ve maintained all along that they have the better overall lineup with Jose Altuve, Michael Brantley, Alex Bregman, etc. Yordan Alvarez, Yuli Gurriel, When they faced Max Fried at home in Game 2, they hit him up for 6 earned runs in 5 innings on the way to a 7-2 victory and see no reason they can’t do the same again.

  

Eastern Michigan + 8.5 at Toledo: It’s November, so that means we MACtion on Tuesday nights! This game falls between last week’s Point Spread Weekly and this week’s issue. I’m not sure I would have included it in my best bets for this upcoming weekend, but I think it’s worth a bet in the interim as I understand that Toledo should be favored at home here, but certainly not by more than a touchdown, This should be close throughout just like a MACtion game should be.

Good luck today (and every day!).

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