Monday was a relatively quiet day in the Tuley’s Takes home office as we started handicapping the college football Week 0 games for this weekend and NFL Preseason Week 3 (we’ll get to those in Point Spread Weekly, and then post in these daily columns later in the week).
I also had to pick up my son Maddux after school and take him to practice with the Las Vegas Youth Orchestra (kind of an all-star orchestra with the best from the city’s schools) with a stop beforehand at McDonald’s, which has become our weekly father/son time. Sunday was a relatively uneventful day around the Tuley’s Takes home office and doing some chores around the house (fixing a doggie gate, cleaning out some cabinets and junk drawers, mostly stuff I’ll never be able to get to when the football regular season kicks off).
While he was at practice, I ran over to the Westgate SuperBook to sweat out my Best Bet on the Yankees 1st 5 + 135 vs. the Mets – I got + 150 as the public was betting the Mets’ Max Scherzer. But I got the start I wanted from the Yankees’ Domingo German as he pitched a shutout through 5 innings and the Yankees got to Scherzer for 2 runs and a 2-0 lead after 5. They also won the game at + 150.
I did lost my second play on the A’s 1st 5 + 120 vs. Marlins (this line bounced all over the place and change with the pitching change of Pablo Lopez to Edward Cabrera – though I thought it was going to be Cabrera when I wrote yesterday’s column), Anyway, I got %plussign0 at different times of the day with both Miami pitchers (the Lopez one was voided and refunded) and lost as the Marlins led the A’s 3-0 through 5 innings and that was the final score.
But it was still a winning day thanks to those generous prices on the Yankees!
Let’s recap the rest of Monday’s (full-game) betting results and then look for more 1st 5 plays on Tuesday. As alluded to above, we’ll add any CFB or NFL preseason games later in the week.
Monday’s recaps
NFL preseason: Jets (4.5-point home dogs) upset Falcons 24-16 Monday night to wrap up Preseason Week 2. The game went Over the closing total of 38.5; it ended up Under the opening total of 43.5 for the early birds. Faves dipped to 10-5 SU for the weekend with 1 pick-’em and 7-6-2 ATS. Road teams dipped to 9-7 SU and 8-6-2 ATS. Over/Unders split 8-8 on the week after Unders got off to a 3-1 start.
More NFL: Faves are 18-13 SU overall in the preseason with 2 pick-’ems, but dogs have taken a 15-14-2 ATS lead. Road teams lead 17-15 SU but are tied 15-15-2 ATS (note: neutral-site Hall of Fame Game not included). After starting 8-0 and then dipping to 18-11, the last 4 games have gone Over and they’re back up to 22-11 (66.7 percent) overall.
MLB: Faves went 5-4 Monday with the upsets by the Brewers (+ 221 in 4-0 win at Dodgers), Rangers (+ 175 in 2-1 win at Twins), Yankees (+ 148 in 4-2 win vs. Mets) and Royals (+ 138 in 6-4 win vs. White Sox). Road teams went 5-4. Unders went 8-1 with the lone Over in the Royals-White Sox game with a total of 8 runs.
More MLB: Faves lead 1,082-719 SU (60.1 percent) on the season with 27 pick-'ems (faves usually win around 59 percent; still ahead of pace; gap had been narrowing but now well over 60 percent). Home teams lead 965-861 (52.8 percent, usually closer to 54 percent but on the rise). Unders lead 898-830-97 (52 percent).
Tuesday’s Takes
Mets 1st 5 + 100 at Yankees: Yes, we were on the Yankees on Monday (because we really felt we were getting betting value at + 150), but now we’re on the Mets to bounce back because that’s what they’ve been doing all season as they’re 34-10 off a loss. That’s impressive! And it was believed that Jacob deGrom was going to start Tuesday’s game, which would have put me in a quandary as the Mets would have heavy chalk again, or at least more than I would have been willing to lay. But we believe we’ve caught a break with Taijuan Walker (10-3, 3.38 ERA, 1.20 WHIP) getting the start vs. Frankie Montas (4-10, 3.87 ERA, 1.21 ERA) as we’re a short dog. I didn’t see any books with the 1st 5 line overnight, but I’m estimating around even money as the game line has the Mets at 115 with some books a little lower.
Brewers 1st 5 + 120 at Dodgers: For my second play, I know I’ve been burning trying to fade the Dodgers this summer (I shudder to think how many units I’d be up if I had passed on those plays!!!), but while it’s tough to go against the Dodgers’ Tony Gonsolin (15-1, 2.12 ERA, 0.88 WHIP), at least the Brewers’ Corbin Burnes (9-5, 2.48 ERA, 0.93 WHIP) gives us a fighting chance at a fair price.
Good luck today (and every day!).