Tuley's Takes Today: Monday's betting recaps, Tuesday MLB 1st 5 plays 8/30

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN.com senior reporter) 

ZacGallen

Monday was an unbelievable day for yours truly.

It started as usual with posting this version of yesterday’s column early in the morning and then mostly talking (emailing, texting, private messaging) to readers about the announcement of changes in VSiN’s broadcast schedule (we’ll get to the changes in my online columns in six paragraphs).

I also did some proxy signup duties for the football contests here in Vegas (compare the various contests HERE) and had to pick up my son Maddux at school in the afternoon and take him to Las Vegas Youth Orchestra practice.

So, it was already a productive day (and thanks to VSiN colleague Gill Alexander for + 150 and + 175 U.S. Open tennis winners) for getting it off to a profitable day as well.

As for our own Best Bets on the day, we went 2-0 but it was two of the luckiest, most unlikely winners I’ve seen in a long time. Our second play started first with the Pirates 1st 5 innings + 280. When I gave it out on Sunday’ night’s “The Lookahead” show on VSiN with Greg Peterson and in this column, the line was “to be determined” as the Pirates didn’t have a starting pitcher listed overnight. When it went up, we got the Pirates + 280 at the Brewers. The Bucs were trailing 3-0 with 1 out in the top of the 5th inning when I sat down for spaghetti dinner with the family when I put my iPhone in my pocket. By the time dinner was over, the Pirates were leading 4-3 at the end of the 5th and I had some found money.

If you thought that was lucky, it paled in comparison to our Best Bet of the day on the Diamondbacks 1st 5 + 145 vs. the Phillies. We were counting on the D-backs’ Madison Bumgarner and he gave up 7 runs in 3 2/3 innings, so the Phillies were up 7-0 heading into the bottom of the sixth inning. Then, the D-backs scored 6 runs in the bottom of the 4th and then amazingly another 6 runs in the bottom of the 5th to “easily” win the 1st 5 bet at 12-7!

I don’t remember cashing luckier back-to-back wins like that in a long time, but as I Tweeted, I’m not giving the money back as it makes up for some bad beats (4 units worth!!!).

CHANGES TO TULEY’S TAKES COLUMNS: Followers of these daily versions of “Tuley’s Takes Today” will be happy to hear that these will continue throughout the football season and beyond (last year, we did 289 straight days – more than 41 straight weeks – of TTT from the opening of the NFL season until the end of the Stanley Cup Finals in June. We’ll recap the prior day’s betting events, update our season-long betting stats in MLB, NFL, MLB, NBA, NHL and other major events such as the CFB regular season, bowl season, March Madness, etc.

As for regular readers of our original weekly version of “Tuley’s Takes” that appeared in Point Spread Weekly, that publication has come to an end but our popular “takes” on every game of the NFL schedule (where I apply my “dog-or-pass” approach in give my picks but also which games to pass, which many readers see as a “buy” sign on the favorite if I’m unable to make a case for the favorite) will be folded into these daily columns. We’ll continue to post that looooong column on Wednesday mornings like our loyal readers have come to expect. We’ll then have the opportunity to update picks (advising when to wait for the line to move in our favor, or to pass if we no longer think a side offers value) throughout the week and into the weekend.

In line with our bosses saying that the VSiN changes are intended to serve 2022 sports bettors in the way they consume all our content, we believe our followers will appreciate that they can easily find all our “takes” in one place as I’m sure some readers were a little confused on days when there would be 2 “Tuley’s Takes” version on the VSiN home page.

Having said all that, let’s recap the rest of Monday’s (full-game) betting results and then look for more plays on Tuesday.

Monday’s recaps

MLB: Faves went 5-3 Monday (after dogs went 16-12 the last 2 days combined). Upsets were by the Diamondbacks (+ 162 in 13-7 win vs. Phillies), Angels (+ 150 in 4-3 win vs. Yankees) and Padres (+ 115 in 6-5 win at Giants). Home teams also went 5-3. Overs led 4-3-1 with the Blue Jays’ 5-4 win vs. the Cubs with a betting total of 9 runs.

More MLB: Faves lead 1,135-756 SU (60 percent) on the season with 28 pick-'ems (faves usually win around 59 percent; still ahead of pace; gap had been narrowing but now back to 60 percent). Home teams lead 1,015-903 (52.9 percent, usually closer to 54 percent but on the rise). Unders lead 941-874-101 (51.8 percent).

NFL preseason (ICYMI): Faves finished 12-4 SU and 10-5-1 ATS in Preseason Week 3. Home teams dominated 15-1 SU and 13-2-1 ATS. Unders led 9-6-1. OVERALL IN PRESEASON, faves finished 30-17 SU with 2 PKs and led 24-20-3 ATS. Home teams led 30-18 SU and 28-17-3 ATS (62.2 percent). Overs led 28-20-1 (58.3 percent).

Tuesday’s Takes

Diamondbacks 1st 5 + 115 vs. Phillies: We fully admitted that we lucked out with the D-backs 1st 5 on Monday, but we’ll come right back on them and feel even more confident with Zac Gallen (9-2, 2.86 ERA, 0.97 WHIP) on the mound.

A’s 1st 5 + 100 at Nationals: These have been 2 of the worst teams in MLB all season (are currently have the 2 worst records), but should the Nats really be favored here with Washington’s Erick Fedde (5-8, 4.88 ERA, 1.51 WHIP) vs. Oakland’s Cole Irvin (6-11, 3.16 ERA, 1.03 WHIP).

Other 1st 5 inning plays: I think it could be a day of upsets (at least in 1st 5 innings) as I like several others, including Royals/Singer 1st 5 + 110 at the reeling White Sox/Giolito and the overperforming Orioles 1st 5 + 125 at the Indians/Quantrill.

Good luck today (and every day!).

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