Monday was a pretty uneventful day in the Tuley’s Takes home office as we moved one day closer to Super Sunday.
But I certainly made one smart move as we stayed away with NBA and NHL underdogs as they went 0-7 on the day and 1-5-1 ATS. This is what I mean when we talk about the “dog-or-pass” approach and how the “pass” part is just as important.
We also hit our best bet of the day on Arizona State + 13 vs. Arizona. The line closed at 12 and the 91-79 final landed on that closing number, so I hope our readers were able to get in at 13 or 12.5 at the worst. Again, it pays to shop around and get the best number.
Let’s recap the rest of Monday’s betting action, including our daily update of the Super Bowl side and total, and then look for value on the Tuesday betting boards. In addition, I’ve gone ahead and made Bengals + 4.5 my official Super Bowl pick in case the line drops. I’ll add the rest of my Super Bowl picks and props after I finalize them for Point Spread Weekly (though, check last week’s PSW for the general rundown as well as “The Opening Lines” archive from Sunday night for more if you can’t wait).
NBA: Faves went 5-0 SU on Monday (18-1 SU the last 3 days) but only 3-1-1 ATS (after going 13-1 ATS on Saturday and Saturday for 16-2-1, 83.3 percent, last 3 days). Warriors (-12) pushed in 110-98 win at the Thunder. Suns (-6.5) failed to cover in a 127-124 win at Bulls. Unders went 3-2.
CBB: Virginia upset No. 7 Duke 69-68 as 11-point road underdog and + 500 on the money line. No. 20 Texas upset No. 8 Kansas 79-76 as a 1.5-point home dog. No. 4 Arizona beat Arizona State 91-79, pushing on closing line of -12 (but earlier ASU bettors cashed...cha-ching!).
NHL: Favorites went 2-0 on Monday with Maple Leafs (-129 in 4-3 OT win at Hurricanes) and Senators (-125 in 4-1 win vs. Devils). The Devils' "score in first 10 minutes" streak also ended after 16 straight. Over/Unders split 1-1.
Super Bowl odds update (10:30 p.m. PT Monday): Rams continue to be 4.5-point favorites vs. the Bengals in Las Vegas. Treasure Island is still the only book at Rams -4 (-125) as of late Monday night, but we've seen some more indications the line could drop, especially with some movement offshore as well as at books in other states. The Over/Under is still a solid 48.5 in Vegas.
Stanford + 7.5 vs. UCLA: Let’s stick in the Pac-12 after last night’s win. UCLA is just 9-10-1 ATS on the season despite its 16-4 straight-up record, so the Bruins have been struggling all year to win by margins as they’ve often played down to their competition. The Bruins did beat Stanford 66-43 on Jan. 29, but since then the Cardinal have gone 2-1 SU and ATS while the Bruins have lost a big game at Arizona and then were upset by Arizona State as 10.5-point road faves.
Clippers + 7.5 at Grizzlies: We have to tread lightly in the NBA these days. The Clippers let us down Sunday in Milwaukee as they were routed 137-113, but I’m counting on them to rebound here.
Super Bowl: Let’s grab the Bengals + 4.5 now. This Super Bowl might not be like past games where the favorite drew most of the betting action on the spread while the dog was more popular on the money line. We’ve been hearing reports of books writing 70 percent of their tickets on the Bengals at 4.5. We’ve seen some Vegas shops dip to Rams -4 and even more offshore, so I’m thinking this is more likely to dip to 4 as opposed to going higher. Now, it’s still possible that as we get closer to gameday that the money does come in on the favored Rams – especially here in Vegas from our California neighbors driving over for our parties and betting action, but it’s no guarantee. We prefer to lock in our Bengals + 4.5 wager now and concentrate on the overflowing menus of prop bets.
Good luck today (and every day!).