Tuley's Takes Today: Monday recaps, updated ATS stats, Tuesday's Best Bets 6/14

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN senior reporter) 

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Monday was a pretty relaxing day in the Tuley’s Takes home office as we mostly recovered from a long weekend.

The highlight was supposed to be Game 5 of the NBA Finals as we had our Best Bet going with the Celtics + 4 at the Warriors, but the Warriors pulled away to cover in their 104-94 victory to take a 3-2 lead as the series heads back to Game 6 in Boston on Thursday.

I almost made the Marlins + 125 at the Phillies my top play of the day and Miami starter Sandy Alcantra did his part by holding the Phillies to just 2 runs in 7 2/3 innings, but the Marlins’ offense didn’t get to Aaron Nola as much as I expected and the Phillies rallied to win 3-2 with a first-ever walkoff hit by Rhys Hopkins in the bottom of the 9th.

Those combined for a disappointing night, but let’s recap the rest of the action and try to get back on the winning track on Tuesday with MLB as the NBA and NHL playoffs have another night off.

Monday’s recaps

NBA: Warriors pulled away in 4th quarter to beat Celtics 104-94 to take 3-2 lead in NBA Finals. The Warriors also covered as 3.5-point home favorites and the game stayed the Under betting total of 211.5 points). Celtics, who were previously 7-0 SU after a loss in this year’s playoffs, were also the 1st team in this series to lose in the zig-zag role.

More NBA: Faves took 3-2 SU and ATS lead in the Finals and improved to 57-29 SU and 50-36 ATS (58.1 percent) overall. Home teams also lead 3-2 SU and ATS in series, 52-34 SU and 45-41 ATS (52.3 percent) overall. The zig-zig dropped to 3-1 ATS in this round, 40-31 ATS (56.3 percent) overall. Unders lead 3-2 in Finals, 51-35 (59.3 percent) overall.

MLB: Faves went 7-3 Monday with upsets by the Rangers (+ 140 in 5-3 win vs. Astros), Reds (+ 137 in 5-4 win at Diamondbacks) and Twins (shortest of dogs at -104 in 3-2 win at Mariners). Braves (-160) beat Nationals 9-5 for their 12th straight win. Home/road teams split 5-5. Overs went 6-4.

More MLB: faves lead 543-351 SU (60.7 percent) on season with 17 games closing pick-'em (faves usually win around 59 percent, so faves still well ahead of that pace); home teams lead just 471-440 (51.7 percent, but usually closer to 54 percent); Unders' lead down to 445-421-43 (51.4 percent).

Tuesday’s Takes

Brewers + 135 at Mets: This is a swagger play left over from Sunday as the Brewers’ snapped their 8-game losing streak and then had an off-day on Monday. Usually swagger plays are on bad teams, but the Brewers are right in the middle of the playoff hunt and are still the favorites to win the NL Central. We draw a tough matchup against New York’s Chris Bassitt, but Adrian Houser is a comparable starter and we also trust the Brewers’ bullpen led by closer Josh Hader. The only other dogs I’m considering on Tuesday’s card are the Rays/Kluber + 180 at the Yankees/Cole andAngels/Syndergaard + 180 at the Dodgers.

Lightning + 155 series price vs. Avalanche: I gave this out on “The Lookahead” on Sunday night and already posted in this column here on Monday. We’re not sure if the Avalanche will have rest of rust after the long layoff, but we’re counting on the two-time defending champs to steal at least one of the two first two games (Wednesday and Saturday) in Colorado.

Good luck today (and every day!).

 

 

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