Tuley's Takes Today: Monday recaps, updated ATS stats, Tuesday Best Bets 6/28

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN senior reporter) 

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Monday was mostly spent doing chores and errands in and around the Tuley’s Takes home office as I was catching up with things after our California vacation and preparing for our next family trip to Hawai’i next week.

It was also spent gathering info on the football handicapping contests at the Westgate SuperBook and Golden Nugget that start signups this Friday, July 1 (note: that’ll be the subject of my regular “Tuley’s Takes” column in Point Spread Weekly that comes out Wednesday morning but will be available at VSiN.com on Tuesday night.

In the meantime, this is the 289th straight edition of “Tuley’s Takes Today.” We’ve had a great run with the daily version of this column, but the streak is going to come to an end as we take some time off this summer. The intention the whole time was to continue through the end of the NBA and NHL playoffs, plus it’s tough to beat baseball this time of year with limited options, especially with favorites still hitting at a 60-percent clip on the season. If you think about it, if dogs are only hitting at 40 percent, you need an average payoff of + 150 to break even if hitting at that pace and there’s not enough logical dogs of that size to count on.

Monday was a losing day as our top play on the Marlins as the Cardinals knocked around Pablo Lopez for 5 runs in 5 innings on the way to a 9-0 victory and we also lost with the Red Sox at the Blue Jays as their 7-game winning streak came to an end, though we hope that leads to a betting opportunity on Tuesday.

Let’s recap the rest of Monday’s betting action, including an update of our season-long MLB betting stats (as well as the USFL and NHL) and look at Tuesday’s card as well as our advance pick in the USFL title game on Sunday.

Monday’s recaps

MLB: Faves went 7-2 Monday, including Blue Jays (-185) beating Red Sox 7-2 to snap their 7-game winning streak. The only upsets were by the Rockies (+ 170 in 4-0 win vs. Dodgers) and Orioles (+ 134 in 9-2 win at Mariners). Home teams went 6-3. Overs went 5-4.

More MLB: Faves lead 656-428 SU (60.5 percent) on the season with 17 games closing pick-'em (faves usually win around 59 percent, so faves still well ahead of that pace). Home teams lead just 563-538 (51.1 percent, but usually closer to 54 percent). Unders dipped to 539-504-56 (51.6 percent).

USFL: No games since Saturday, and the championship game isn’t until next Sunday, but here’s the USFL betting stats for those interested: favorites/underdogs split 1-1 SU and ATS in the playoff games while Over/Unders were also 1-1. For the season and playoffs combined, faves are 31-11 SU (73.8 percent) but just 20-20-2 ATS (50 percent) while Overs still lead 23-19 (54.8 percent) overall after a 4-8 start.

NHL: Faves finished 4-2 in Stanley Cup Final (Avs short road dog in Game 4, Lightning road dog in Game 5) and went 58-31 overall. Home/road split 3-3 in series with home dipping to 54-35 overall. Over/Unders also split 3-3 in series (with Overs in first 3 games and Unders in last 3 games) but Overs ended up leading 46-41-2 (52.9 percent) overall.

Tuesday’s Takes

Diamondbacks + 105 vs. Padres: Here’s another example of not enough high-priced dogs being available as this is what I consider the Best bet for Tuesday. Zac Gallen (4-2 but D-backs are 8-5 overall in his starts, 2.92 ERA, 1.01 WHIP) lost a 3-2 pitchers’ duel vs. San Diego’s Sean Manaea (3-3, 3.87 ERA, 1.15 WHIP) just last Tuesday in San Diego, but I’m counting on Gallen to turn the tables this week at home.

Blue Jays -130 vs. Red Sox: This is an anti-swagger play against the Red Sox, but it also shows how hard it is to beat baseball this summer as we usually get a plus-price on our swagger/anti-swagger plays (as a team with a 7-game winning streak would usually be the chalk in this spot but instead we’re asked to lay the juice, so that’s why I’m not going with this as my top play of the day). I might try to turn the fave into a dog by laying the Blue Jays -1.5 on the run line at + 140 but that’s a risky proposition.

Sunday: Stars + 4.5 vs Stallions: We gave out this in Monday’s column The Stallions have been the USFL’s top team all season-long, however, while they’re 5-1 SU in their last 6 games (since beating the Stars 31-17 in Week 5), they’re only 2-4 ATS as teams have been able to keep games close. The Stars are also playing much better since that mid-season loss to the Stallions, also going 5-1 SU since that game but also 4-1-1 ATS as they’ve been exceeding expectations down the stretch. In fact, the push came in a meaningless Week 10 loss to the Generals when they weren’t showing much as the two teams were to meet in the playoffs the following week, which the Stars won 19-14 to set up this meeting. I have this line at Stallions -2.5, so definite value on the Stars + 4.5 (I see Willliam Hill at 4, so probably best to grab the 4.5 ASAP). Slightest lean to the Over 44.5 as I have it at between 45.5 and 47.

Good luck today (and every day!).

 

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