Tuley's Takes Today: Monday recaps, Tuesday plays 6/21

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN senior reporter) 

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Monday was another loooooong day, but a very fun day. I shared yesterday that we dropped off our two younger kids near Yosemite, and then I took my wife and oldest kid, Jordyn, the rest of the way to San Francisco, where we had dinner at Hang Ah (which claims to be the “1st dimsum in the U.S.” dating back to 1920) and then went on a ghost tour of downtown San Fran and Chinatown.

I was able to follow all my sports betting action before the tour started at 8 p.m. PT. Unfortunately, we lost our Best Bet of the day as the Rays (+ at the Yankees) were no-hit for the first 7 innings before rallying to tie the game 2-2 only to lose 4-2. We also lost our secondary MLB play on the Cardinals (+ 140 at the Brewers) as they were shut out 2-0).

But the day wasn’t a total loss, though it looked like it might be when the Avalanche took a 1-0 lead and was dominating early at the Lightning in Game 3. After suffering through 2 days of people saying the Stanley Cup series was over and that the Avalanche were going to sweep, my Twitter notifications were lighting up more than my Electro Magnetic Field ghost detector. But fortunately the Lightning rallied to win 6-2 and make a series of it after pulling within 2-1. Note: we’ve been touting the Over in the series and we’re off to a 3-0 start there (and decided to parlay the Lightning with the Over for a nice end to the day; we hope followers at least made a small Over bet with us).

Let’s recap the rest of Monday’s betting action and then look for a winner of two on Tuesday as we’ll be spending more of our Bay Area vacation at the Oakland Zoo during the afternoon and the Mariners-A’s game at night.

Monday’s recaps

NHL: Lightning (-118 home favorite) beat the Avalanche 6-2 to pull within 2-1 in the Stanley Cup Final. The game went Over the closing total of 6 goals). Home teams (all favored) have won all 3 games so far in the series while all 3 games have also gone Over the betting total. Note: faves were also 8-2 last round and now lead 58-28 overall. Home teams were 7-3 last round and are now 54-32 overall. Unders were 7-3 in the last round, but Overs’ 3-0 start in the Final has improved them to 46-38-2 (54.8 percent) overall.

MLB: Faves went 7-2 Monday with only the upsets by the Royals (+ 170 in 6-2 win at Angels, snapping their 3-game winning streak) and White Sox (+ 110 in 8-7 win at Blue Jays). Home teams also went 7-2. Unders also led 7-2.

More MLB: faves lead 600-390 SU (60.6 percent) on the season with 17 games closing pick-'em (faves usually win around 59 percent, so faves still well ahead of that pace). Home teams had a nice night at 7-2 and now lead 517-490 (51.3 percent, but usually closer to 54 percent). Unders improved to 497-460-48 (51.9 percent).

Tuesday’s Takes

Nationals TBD at Orioles: We haven’t seen a line on this game as of late Monday night/early Tuesday morning, This is a swagger play on the Nationals after they snapped an 8-game losing streak on Sunday. The Orioles haven’t announced a starter yet, so it’s off the board, though we’re getting Erick Fedde starting for the Nats; he’s only 4-5, though the Nationals are 7-6 in his starts, so he’s been able to keep them in games (and we’re not too worried about fading the Orioles). I’ll update this pick on Tuesday morning when we get a line.

A’s + 130 vs. the Mariners and Over 8: I’ve said many times in this column and elsewhere that I’m a journalist first and a handicapper second. I certainly try to approach my bets like a professional and only bet when we believe we have an edge, but I do have a degenerate side and I’ll admit that I’ll probably want to have action on the first MLB game I’ve attended in at least three years when I went to a Giants-Padres game in San Diego three summers ago on San Diego Chicken Bobblehead Night. The Mariners also didn’t have a starting pitcher listed for this matchup of sub-.500 teams, but the overnight line was A’s + 130 so I’ll root, root, root for the home team (and the possibly future Las Vegas A’s). Oakland is starting James Kapriellan (0-4, 6.31 ERA, 1.50 WHIP), so maybe I’ll also take the Over 8 and hope I can get my 55-year-old butt in gear to catch a home run ball (and give it to a kid, of course).

Good luck today (and every day!).

 

 

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