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Tuley's Takes Today: Monday recaps, Tuesday best bets (3/29)

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN senior reporter) 

March 29, 2022 05:24 AM
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Monday was mostly spent driving back to the Tuley’s Takes home office in North Las Vegas as we’re done with road trips for a while.

We arrived home in plenty of time to watch our Best Bet of the day on the Coyotes-Oilers First-Period Over 1.5 easily cash as the Oilers scored twice in the first 10:24 of the opening period, and then the Coyotes added a goal to also cash for anyone that went with Over 2 goals. That improved our record to 30-13-1 ATS (69.8 percent) with our top play the past 44 days.

Now, I gave out the play in yesterday’s column at Coyotes-Oilers 1P Over -145 as that was the overnight price at BetMGM (note: it was also available as low as -130 at DraftKings in states where they operate). One of our readers on Twitter, @LouisStrati, mentioned that the line was up to -155.

This brings up a point I’d like to make, which longtime readers should already know as it’s been going on since we first started playing these 1P Overs in winter 2019 with the “Follow the Money 5” as those were our personal ATM for more than 3 months. We almost always get lower vig on these the night before or early in the morning before the public jumps all over these plays. It happens time and time again. In addition, these plays have been so successful that a lot of books go to Over 2 to take away our wins (and cause a push) if there’s 2 goals in the opening 20 minutes.

Regular followers of these plays should know this and try to get the best numbers available; in fact, I know many readers who say they are able to predict which plays I’m going to recommend and go ahead and bet them even before seeing my column. It’s really not rocket science as I’ve said over and over that we look for games with a full-game total of 6.5 and/or teams that have been consistently strong with 1P Overs on the season (Devils, Panthers, Wild, Blue Jackets, Oilers) or on hot current runs based on the betting stats by @PSUOtto on Twitter.

We have a saying in the Tuley’s Takes home office: Give someone a winner and they eat prime rib for a night, but teach them to pick winners and they eat prime rib for a lifetime.

Let’s get to the general recaps of Monday’s betting action across the major team sports and look for more winners on Tuesday.

Monday’s recaps

NBA: Faves went 7-2 SU but dogs led 5-4 ATS as the Celtics (+ 8.5 in 115-112 OT loss at Raptors), Magic (+ 8.5 in 107-101 loss at Cavaliers) and Rockets (+ 9.5 in 123-120 loss at Spurs) covered as dogs in SU losses. The 2 outright upsets were by the Knicks (+ 3.5 in 109-104 win vs. Bulls) and Thunder (+ 1.5 in 134-131 OT win at Blazers). Overs went 5-4.

NHL: Faves went 3-2 with the upsets by the Sabers (+ 145 in 6-5 win at Blackhawks) and Kraken (+ 175 in 6-1 rout at Kings). The 3 winning faves -- Hurricanes -133 in 6-1 rout at Capitals, Blues -160 in 4-1 win vs. Canucks and Oilers -392 in 6-1 rout vs. Coyotes -- all covered their -1.5 puck lines. Overs went 4-1.

Tuesday’s Takes

St. Bonaventure-Xavier Under 140.5: I actually first gave this play out on VSiN’s “The Lookahead” with Scott Seidenberg on Sunday night, and then gave an advance pick on it in Monday’s column here. This total has already been bet down from 142, and I expected more  bettors to jump on the Under (even though this is the NIT instead of the NCAA tournament) and bet it lower. That hasn’t happened yet, so you can still find 140.5 at a lot of books, though some have been bet down to 140. I don’t see these teams getting into the 70s against each other with a spot in the NIT title game on the line. I think we just need to avoid overtime.

Canadiens-Panthers First-Period Over 1.5 -155 (BetMGM)/-170 (DraftKings): The Panthers are the No.1 1P over team at 46-19, so we’re riding them. The Canadiens are 35-30 and we’ll probably need to rely on the Panthers (NHL-leading 1.31 goals per 1P) to get us there as the Habs are second-to-last at 0.62 goals per first period, but allow a league-high 1.22 goals per 1P. If you’re looking for a game to add to a parlay, I like Flyers-Wild 1P Over -150 as the Wild are the No. 2 1P Over team at 43-21.

Good luck today (and every day!).

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