Monday was a letdown here in the Tuley’s Take home office after the great weekend with the NFL divisional playoffs.
Of course, it didn’t help as I lost my best bet on the Ducks-Bruins First-Period Over 1.5 as the Ducks only led 1-0 after the first 20 minutes. To add insult to my wallet’s injury, the teams scored 2 goals apiece in the second period on the way to a 5-3 win by the Ducks. Yep, 8 goals scored in the game but they couldn’t manage 2 for us in the first period.
Make note of those 4 goals in the second period. I know Mitch and Pauly have talked about this in the past and this is mostly anecdotal, but it sure seems like when I lose a 1P Over bet that the teams fly Over the 2P total. I’m sure I’m exaggerating when I say it feels like it happens 90 percent of the time, but I’m sure I’d be way ahead if I had played it each time (it’s my own fault that I haven’t in all but a few cases).
But, hey, we can't complain too much after sweeping our NFL picks over the weekend with the Bengals, 49ers and Rams/Bills teaser.
We’ll offer our top NHL 1P Over plays for Tuesday below, but we’re making an NBA play our best bet. First, let’s recap the rest of Monday’s betting action.
Monday’s recaps
NBA: Faves went 3-0 SU on Monday with Bulls beating Thunder 111-110 in game that closed pick-'em, though early bettors on Bulls lost as they were -1,5 to -2.5 before closing PK. Dogs led 2-1 ATS as Knicks (+ 4.5 at Cavaliers) and Jazz (+ 12.5 at Suns) covered in SU losses; only fave to cover was Pelicans (-3.5 in 117-113 win vs. Pacers). Overs went 3-1.
CBB: No. 5 Kansas outlasted No. 13 Texas Tech 94-91 in 2OT, but failed to cover as a 7.5-point home favorite as the game flew Over the total of 139 even before overtime (75-75 at end of regulation).
NHL: Faves went 5-2 Monday with only upsets by the Ducks (+ 210 in 5-3 win at the Bruins) and the Golden Knights (+ 130 in 1-0 win at Capitals). Unders went 4-3.
Tuesday’s Takes
Mavericks + 4 at Warriors: This line was between 3 and 5 overnight, so obviously shop for the best number you can get (as of 2 p.m. ET/11 a.m. PT Tuesday, the line was a consensus 3.5, but shop around as + 4 available at William Hill for those with access to those books). The Mavericks, who beat the Warriors 99-82 in Dallas back on Jan, 5, so I believe they’ll be in this game until the end. The Mavs are led by Luka Doncic (25.6 points per game) and I like the 1-2 punch with Kristaps Porzingis (19.9 points per game). The Warriors obviously have Steph Curry, but they’ll be without James Wiseman while Draymond Green, Klay Thompson and Andre Iguodala are listed as day-to-day. That fact is probably why this line is a little short if we only get + 3 or + 4, but if any of those players are out it certainly increases the Mavericks chances to win outright.
Parlay Golden Knights-Hurricanes First-Period Over 1.5 -155/Panthers-Jets First-Period Over 1.5 -155: VGK are 27-15 with 1P Overs, including 12-5 in their last 17 games despite staying Under on Monday night, while Hurricanes are just 19-18, but have hit 4 in a row and 9 of last 10. Panthers and Jets hit at a combined 47-33 (58.75 percent). The parlay should pay at least + 171.
Good luck today (and every day!).