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Tuley's Takes Today: Monday recaps, NCAA betting stats, Tuesday best bets (4/5)

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN senior reporter) 

April 5, 2022 05:14 AM
USATSI_17892852

Monday was a long day waiting for the NCAA men’s basketball championship game, but it was worth the wait here in the Tuley’s Takes home office.

We had North Carolina + 4.5 while a lot of our friends had Kansas -4. It was a roller-coaster ride as Kansas jumped out to leads of 7-0 and 9-3 and then an 18-3 run by North Carolina led to a 15-point halftime lead at 40-25 before we had to hold on to the cover in Kansas’ 72-69 victory.

We got back to 70 percent at 35-15-1 ATS the past 51 days with our top pick each day, and we sincerely hope that’s helped a lot of you to have a profitable 7-plus weeks since Super Sunday. I remember being 14-1-1 ATS, so we’re still 21-14 ATS (60 percent) for those who jumped in at that point.

In addition, I have to go back and figure out the record on secondary plays, but I know at least the NHL First-Period Overs have been profitable as we won again Monday with our top 1P Over play on the Bruins-Jackets 1P Over -165 and also hit our recommended parlay play with Maple Leafs-Lightning as both games ended up 1-1 after the opening 20 minutes.

Anyway, let’s recap the rest of Monday’s betting results and then try to keep the good times rolling on Tuesday.

Monday’s recaps

CBB: Kansas rallied in the 2nd half to beat North Carolina 72-69 in the NCAA tournament Championship Game, but the Tar Heels covered as 4-point underdogs. The game stayed Under the betting total of 152 points. Kansas was around 10-1 pre-tournament, + 450 heading into the Sweet16 and + 180 before the Final Four.

More CBB: Favorite won SU and underdog covered ATS in title game (14th game of tourney in which winner didn't cover). Faves finished 41-21 SU with 1 pick-'em (Duke-Texas Tech in Sweet 16), but dogs led 35-27 ATS (56.5 percent). Unders finished 35-28 (55.6 percent) after the Under in the title game.

NBA: There weren’t any games in the Association on Monday, which we found refreshing so everyone could concentrate on the college kids. We were disappointed in the teams that played Saturday against the Final Four.

NHL: Faves went 3-1 Monday with the lone upset by the Maple Leafs (+ 115 in 6-2 win at Lightning). Bruins (-240 in 3-2 OT win at Blue Jackets), Blues (-400 in 5-1 win vs. Coyotes) and Flames (-170 in 3-2 win at Kings) won as chalk with only Blues covering -1.5 puck line. Unders went 3-1.

Tuesday’s Takes

Grizzlies + 5.5 at Jazz: The Grizzlies are 20-0 SU without Ja Morant this season, so why wouldn’t we like them getting points at the Jazz? The Grizzlies are also an NBA-best 51-27 ATS (65.4 percent) and also 2-0 SU and ATS this season against the Jazz, who are third-worst at 31-45-2 ATS (40.8 percent).

Maple Leafs-Panthers First-Period Over 1.5 -165 (DraftKings): Toronto (No. 6 with 1P Overs) came through Monday for us and face the Panthers (No. 1 team at 48-21), who have been coming through for us for a long time as they’re also on a 21-6 run. The Devils, Blue Jackets and Oilers are also in action for parlay players.

Good luck today (and every day!).

 

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