Tuley's Takes Today: Monday recaps, Contest Corner, Tuesday pick (10-19)

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN.com senior reporter) 

October 19, 2021 03:27 AM

Monday was a mixed result here in the Tuley’s Takes home office.

On a personal note, I was returning home after taking my oldest child, Jordyn, back to Northern Arizona University in Flagstaff, Ariz., after a weekend at home. Because I hadn’t used the Titans vs. the Bills on Monday Night Football in any of my contests because the line was shorter earlier in the week, I had forgotten that I wrote “If this line continues to rise during the week and over the weekend, I might end up betting the Titans + 6 or higher (and also considering a first-half bet of Titans + or especially + 3.5)” in Point Spread Weekly.

I didn’t remember that until I was back home and grading my PSW picks, so that was a great way to end NFL Week 6 as the Titans trailed only 20-17 to cash the first-half bet as I did get the + 3.5 (the hook came in handy!) and then pulled the outright upset, 34-31. The bad news is I lost my MLB bet on the Astros + 110 that I gave out in Monday’s column here.

I’ve whiffed on the MLB so far in the League Championship Series round. For whatever reason, I’m not in tune with these matchups like I was in the previous round and late in the regular season. I still live the Astros in the ALCS (if the Red Sox will stop hitting grand slams!) but I’m going to pass on Tuesday’s Game 4. It’s also tempting to take the Braves as big dogs despite leading the Dodgers 2-0, but I’m going to pass there, too.

Let’s get to the general betting recaps from Monday, then take a look around Contest Corner as we update the leaderboards in Circa Sports Million and the Westgate SuperContest, as well as the Circa Survivor. And then I did find a best bet for Tuesday.

Monday’s recaps

NFL: Titans upset Bills 34-31 on Monday Night Football to wrap up Week 6 after closing as 6-point home underdogs and + 220 on the money line. The game went Over the betting total of 53 points. Favorites went 10-4 SU in Week 6 (outright upsets by the Jaguars, Cardinals, Raiders and Titans), but just 8-6 ATS (Eagles and Seahawks covered as dogs in SU losses). Home-field advantage continues to be negligible as road teams went 9-4 SU and ATS (London game not included), though there were a whopping eight road faves in Week 6 as they went 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS. Unders went 7-5-2 with pushes in the Rams-Giants (49) and Seahawks-Steelers (43) games. Primetime Overs split 1-1-1 . 

More NFL: On the season, faves are 57-35 SU with 2 games closing pick-'em, but dogs lead 50-42 ATS (54.3 percent). Road teams are 50-41 SU with 3 neutral-site games (Packers-Saints in Week 1, plus the two London games in Weeks 5 and 6) and 53-38 ATS (58.2 percent). Unders lead 50-42-2 (54.3 percent) while primetime Overs (which started 6-0) are now 11-6-1 (64.7 percent).

MLB: Red Sox (-122 home favorites) routed the Astros 12-3 Monday night with yet another grand slam – this one by Kyle Schwarber – to take a 2-1 lead in the American League Championship Series. The game went Over the total of 9.5 runs. Faves took a 3-2 lead in this round, home teams lead 4-1 and Overs are 4-1. In the LDS and LCS rounds, faves improved to 15-7, home teams also lead 15-7 and Overs lead 13-9.

NHL: Favorites/underdogs split 2-2 Monday with the Flyers (-135 vs. Kraken) and Blues (-176 at Coyotes) winning as faves (both also covered -1.5 goals on the puck line) while upsets were by the Rangers (+ 163 at Maple Leafs) and Ducks (+ 172 at Flames). Over/Unders also split 2-2.

Contest Corner

Circa Survivor is down to 2,224 live entries after 2 were eliminated on Monday Night Football with the Bills’ loss. Only 44 didn't survive the week, including 10 "no picks.” The losing picks were on the Broncos (19), Dolphins (7), Browns (4), Lions (2) and Bills (2).  

HANNIBAL BARCA still leads Circa Sports Million at 26-4 (86.7 percent) despite losing with the Bills on MNF. GAMBLER AND A GIVER and Mr. Wiggles are tied for second place at 25-5. HANNIBAL BARCA's other 2 entries are in a 5-way tie at 24-6 with JJARVIS117, Tark4Prez and WHAT COULD GO WRONG .

Defending SuperContest champion ODBMG has moved into a 5-way tie for the lead with CARDINAL, FYTE ON, JOHNNY VEGAS and XERRI 1 with 23 contest points (Note: players get 1 point per win, 0.5 per push, so the co-leaders have records of either 23-7 or 22-6-2). The SuperContest Gold leader is MILESTOGO with a record of 20-9-1. 

Tuesday’s Take

Nets (+ 1) at Bucks: Milwaukee is raising its championship banner, but that can often be a distraction with all the back-slapping going on for the defending champs (in the NHL, the Tampa Bay Lightning just lost their season opener on banner night). This short number pretty much shows you that oddsmakers consider the Nets the better team and are just making the Bucks a short favorite because of home-court-advantage. Even though the Nets are without Kyrie Irving, give me James Harden and Kevin Durant over Giannis Antetokounmpo. And Co.

Good luck today (and every day!).

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