Tuley's Takes Today: Monday recaps, Contest Corner, Tuesday best bet (11/9)

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN.com senior reporter) 

November 9, 2021 05:56 AM

Monday in the Tuley’s Takes home office was mostly spent doing some errands and otherwise celebrating Sunday’s perfect day of our NFL bets and sweeping our teasers.

It was looked like our added bet on Monday Night Football on Under 39 (as posted in yesterday’s column, and then seemingly got even better as it was bet up to Under 40 early Monday) was going to coast home as the Steelers were seemingly coasting to a victory. But then the Bears mounted a rally led by a scoop-and-score on a Steelers’ punt return (I couldn’t help but think of my VSiN colleague Gill Alexander saying Monday morning on “Guessing the Lines” with Chris Andrews that teams shouldn’t bother having punt returners as the downside of a fumble – or penalty – is way more common than a TD return or big play) and it ended up flying Over in the Steelers’ 29-27 victory.

We can’t win ‘em all, as much as we try.

Let’s recap all of Monday’s betting action and then I’ll have a best bet for Tuesday.

I know a lot of people are excited about the college basketball season starting on Tuesday night (and I’m going to be diving into the VSiN College Basketball Betting Guide, which I recommend for everyone as I try to catch up on all the teams), but I’m returning to college football with MACtion.

Monday’s recaps

NFL: Steelers beat Bears 29-27 on Monday Night Football, but the Bears covered after closing as 7-point road underdogs. The game went Over the betting total of 40 points). Dogs went 10-4 ATS in Week 9 with 7 outright upsets. Home/road teams split 7-7 SU, but road teams led 10-4 ATS. Overs went 8-6 with primetime Overs going 2-1 for the week. 

More NFL: On the season, faves are 79-54 SU with 3 games closing pick-’em, but dogs lead 76-56-1 ATS (57.6 percent). Road teams are 71-62 SU with 3 neutral-site games and also lead 77-55-1 ATS (58.3 percent). Unders lead 73-61-2 (54.5 percent) while primetime Overs lead 14-12-1 (after a 6-0 much-publicized start). 

NBA: Lakers outlasted Hornets 126-123 in OT late Monday, covering as 2.5-point home favorites. The game went Over 225.5 points even before overtime. Faves went 6-1 SU and ATS with Nets-Bulls closing pick-'em. The lone upset was by the Nuggets (+ 1.5 vs. Heat). Over/Unders split 4-4 on the night, but Unders still lead 95-58-1 (62.1 percent) on the young season.

NHL: Underdogs went 2-1 Monday with upsets by the Rangers (+ 100 vs. Panthers) and Kings (+ 215 at Maple Leafs). All 3 games went Over the betting total of 5.5 goals. 

Contest Corner

Circa Survivor is down to 686 live entries as 151 squeaked by with the Steelers on MNF. This week's eliminations were the Bills (249), Saints (122), Cowboys (111), Rams (11), Raiders (5), 49ers (2), Bengals (1) and “No Pick” (1) for a total of 502 from the 1,188 that entered the week. 

Circa Sports Million has new co-leaders as PRICE CHECK-3 went 5-0 and JJarvis117 went 4-1 to both improve to 34-11 (75.6 percent). There's a four-way tie for 3rd at 33-11-1. Former leader HANNIBAL BARCA went 2-3 to fall into tie for 7th at 33-12. 

SuperContest has a new leader as NOMSNAIGANSKK went 5-0 to improve to 32-12-1 (72.7 percent), half-point ahead of THE DOGERS at 32-13. SuperContest Gold leader THE PROGNASTICATOR 2 went 4-1 to improve to 31-13-1 (70.5 percent) and open up a 3-game lead.

Tuesday’s Take

Buffalo + 7.5 at Miami-Ohio: We talked last week about how the MAC is pretty even talent-wise and we tend to see competitive games. Well, both these teams are 4-5 with Miami-Ohio 3-2 in the MAC and Buffalo 2-3, but yet we’re getting more than a touchdown. The Buffalo Bulls average 33.7 points a game compared to Miami’s 24.8. Oh, sure, Miami allows 23.6 points per game while Buffalo allows 29, but we don’t often trust MAC defenses. Buffalo RB Dylan McDuffie leads an attack that averages 206.3 rushing yards per game with 27 (three per game) rushing TDs. Miami-O had the No. 2 D, but that’s like having the second-best defense in ArenaFootball. Defense is optional when it comes to MACtion, so I’ll take the generous points in what should come down to a one-score game.

Good luck today (and every day!).

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