Monday was spent mostly doing chores and errands in and out of the Tuley’s Takes home office after a weekend of betting and watching sports all day long.
As productive as the day was overall, maybe I should have kept to those tasks as our bets weren’t as successful with the Heat getting blown out by the Celtics in our Best Bet of the day and the Nationals also getting routed by the Dodgers (note to self: maybe the Dodgers are too good to “lose their swagger” as this was the third time this season they had a winning streak of 6 games or more snapped and went on to win the follow-up game). As you’ll see below, MLB faves went 9-3 on the day, so it’s a good thing I didn’t play more dogs – and at least I stayed away from the NHL as dogs were 0-2.
Let’s recap the rest of Monday’s betting results and try to get back on the winning track on Tuesday.
Celtics routed Heat 102-82 Monday night to even the Eastern Conference Finals at 2-2. The ViewFromVegas is the Celtics also easily covered as 6.5-point home favorites (the game stayed Under the betting total of 205.5 points). The zig-zag is 3-0 ATS in this series with each team alternating wins.
Faves improved to 4-3 SU and ATS this round, faves lead 50-26 SU and 43-33 ATS (56.6 percent) overall. Home teams are also 4-3 SU and ATS this round, 47-29 SU but just 40-36 ATS (52.6 percent) overall. The zig-zag improved to 3-2 ATS this round, 33-29 ATS overall. Overs dipped to 4-3 this round, Unders improved to 46-30 (60.5 percent) overall.
Avalanche (-160) beat Blues 6-3 Monday night to take 3-1 lead in their 2nd-round series (game went Over 6.5 goals). Earlier, Lightning (-130) beat Panthers 2-0 to complete 4-0 sweep (stayed Under 6). Faves went 2-0 on the day. Home/road teams split 1-1. Over/Unders split 1-1.
Faves improved to 9-5 this round and lead 42-23 overall (but just 30-35 on -1.5 puck line). Home teams lead 8-6 in round, 40-25 overall. The zig-zag went 0-2 ATS on Monday, is 2-4 SU this round and 28-25 overall. Unders lead 10-4 this round, but Overs still lead 35-28-2 (55.6 percent) overall.
Faves went 9-3 Monday with upsets by the Orioles (+ 255 in 6-4 win at Yankees), Guardians (+ 159 in 6-1 win at Astros) and Mets (+ 125 in 13-3 win at Giants). Home/road teams split 6-6. Overs went 9-3.
Faves lead 372-239 SU (60.9 percent) on season with 14 games closing pick-'em (faves usually win about 59 percent, so faves still ahead of that pace). Home teams lead just 319-306 (51 percent, usually closer to 54 percent). Unders 320-273-32 (54 percent), down from 60 percent just 4 weeks ago.
Diamondbacks -1.5 + 105 vs Royals:
For our Best Bet of the day, let’s turn the Diamondbacks from a fave into a short run-line dog with Arizona's Zach Gallen facing a weak KC offense. Regular dogs I like are the Red Sox + 150 at the White Sox with Nick Pivetta in solid recent form and Mets + 120 at the struggling Giants.
Flames + 100 at Oilers:
The Oilers have won the last two games, but these teams (the last 2 Canadian teams left in the Stanley Cup playoffs) are pretty even and it makes sense to the Flames to bounce back and even this series as it really has the look of a seven-game series. A lot of people are saying the Flames have to get more physical on defense, but I’m more interested in them scoring more than 1 game like they did in Game 3 and return to more wide-open hockey like the first two games in the series.
Mavericks -1 as they try to avoid the sweep? No thanks. I don’t like teams in this role and they could roll over, plus I don’t want to lay even a point. Conversely, the Warriors have shown a tendency to let down and wait to close our series at home, so I have no interest in them. I’m mostly hoping the Mavs do win and then taking them plus the points in Game 5 back in San Francisco.
Good luck today (and every day!).