Tuley's Takes Today: Monday recap, updated betting stats, Tuesday best bets 5/3

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN senior reporter) 

May 3, 2022 07:20 AM
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Monday was a day that was spent, frankly, napping most of the day. I wasn’t feeling sick at all, just exhausted from burning the candle at both ends many of these nights and late mornings.

I woke up in time to bet the Diamondbacks + 150 against the Marlins (we gave it out on “The Lookahead” with Greg Peterson on Sunday night at + 130 as Peterson and I both noted that bettors were steaming the Marlins and we expected a better price on Monday) and + 140 in this column. Zac Gallen won the pitchers’ duel with Pablo Lopez as the D-backs jumped out to a 5-0 lead and then held on to win 5-4.

Unfortunately, this continued a recent trend where we win our second-Best Bet but lose our top play as the Mavericks + 6 lost 121-114 at the Suns. This was a coin-flip at the end, so I hesitate to call it a Bad Beat, but it looked like we had it as the Mavs hung tough but the Suns went 18-for-18 from the free-throw line so it’s hard to cover in the end game when the leading team doesn’t miss down the stretch.

That dropped our record to 48-30-1 ATS (61.5 percent) the past 79 days (11-plus weeks), still more than respectable but again showing how hard it is to maintain such a high win percentage. But we try.

Let’s recap the rest of Monday’s action and then look for winning plays on Tuesday while trying to at least find a winning top play.

Monday’s recaps

NBA: Suns (-6) won and covered (barely) in 121-114 win vs. Mavericks in Game 1 of their 2nd-round series. The game went Over betting total of 214.5 points. Earlier, the Heat (-7.5) covered in 106-92 win vs. 76ers in their opener as the game stayed Under (208.5). Faves (and home teams) went 2-0 SU and ATS on Monday. Over/Unders split 1-1.

More NBA: Faves are 3-1 SU so far in this round but just 2-2 ATS while leading 33-14 SU and 27-20 ATS (57.4 percent) overall. Home/road teams tied 2-2 SU this round, but home teams lead 3-1 ATS. Home teams are 26-21 SU but road teams still lead 26-21 ATS (55.3 percent). Over/Unders start 2-2 this round, but Unders lead 29-18 (61.7 percent).

NHL: Faves/dogs split 2-2 in playoff openers with upsets by the Kings (+ 170 in 4-3 win at Oilers) and Blues (+ 110 in 4-0 win at Wild). The Hurricanes (-115 in 5-1 win vs. Bruins) and Maple Leafs (-117 in 5-0 win vs. Lightning) won as faves and also covered -1.5 on puck line. Over/Unders split 2-2.

MLB: Faves went 6-2 on Monday with the only upsets by the Diamondbacks (+ 150 in 5-4 win at Marlins) and Braves (-104 in 5-2 win at Mets). Road teams went 5-3. Unders went 5-3.

More MLB: Faves went 6-2 Monday and now lead 212-124 SU (63.1 percent) on the season with 4 games closing pick-'em (faves usually win closer to 59 percent SU). Home teams went 3-5 as their lead on the season was cut to 176-164. Unders went 5-3 and now lead 185-140-15 (56.8 percent).

Tuesday’s Takes

Grizzlies + 2 vs. Warriors: The Celtics are in the zig-zag role as 4.5-point home favorites against the Bucks, so I’m going to pass. We won with the Bucks in Game 1 and we’re almost tempted to take them again, but with the zig-zag heavily favoring a bounce back by the Celtics, we’ll take our profits and wait for the next round. However, we will take the Grizzlies in their zig-zag role after losing Game 1 as they showed they can play with the Warriors despite being the only home dogs. They were just one missed Ja Morant running layup away from taking the opener and we look for them to even this series heading to California.

MLB underdogs: I love the Blue Jays, but I can’t pass up the Yankees (on a 10-game winning streak) at + 120. Another dog I like is the Mariners + 140 at the Astros. And I just heard my VSiN colleague Matt Youmans on “Follow the Money” with Mitch Moss and Pauly Howard recommend betting against the Reds on the money line, and I can’t argue with that strategy. The Brewers are -1.5 -120 with Brandon Woodruff (2-1, 1.34 WHIP) against Vladimir Gutierrez.(0-4, 7.41 ERA).

NHL underdogs: I missed the Blues and Kings in their Game 1s on Monday as I thought it was going to be a chalky day. On Tuesday, I’m taking the Capitals + 190 (also considering + 1.5 -130 on puck line) against the Panthers, who were awesome in the regular season but now have to overcome the President’s Cup jinx as the playoffs are a whole different game. I’ll probably also have a play on the Penguins + 110 at the Rangers.

Good luck today (and every day!).

 

 

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