Tuley's Takes Today: Monday recap, updated betting stats, Tuesday best bets 5/17

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN senior reporter) 

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Monday was a strange day in the Tuley’s Takes home office as we were going through withdrawals with no NBA or NHL playoff games.

I was missing basketball and hockey even more as we lost our Best Bet of the day on the Astros + 105 at the Red Sox as the Astros weren’t able to hold a 3-2 lead as they lost 6-3. Of course, as you’ll see in the recaps below, faves went 10-2 on the day and we went 0-3 overall with our MLB dogs, also losing with the Rockies and Mariners (probably a good thing that the Cardinals’ game with the Mets was postponed).

Let’s recap Monday’s betting results (including the updates from the NBA and NHL playoffs) and then welcome back basketball and hockey on Tuesday.

Monday’s recaps

MLB: Faves went 10-2 Monday with the only upsets by the Tigers (+ 190 in 3-2 win at Rays) and Rangers (+ 125 in 7-4 win vs. Angels). Home teams went 7-5. Over/Unders split 5-5-2 with pushes in the Yankees' 6-2 win at Orioles (O/U of 8) and Red Sox's 6-3 win vs. Astros (O/U of 9).

More MLB: Faves lead 316-202 SU (61 percent) on the season with 11 games closing pick-'em (faves usually win about 59 percent, so faves still ahead of that pace). Home teams lead just 271-258 (51.2 percent, usually closer to 54 percent). Unders lead 269-233-27 (53.6 percent), down from being at 60 percent just 3 weeks ago.

And these were the trends for the NBA and NHL playoffs as they wrapped up their previous rounds on Sunday…

NBA: Faves went 16-10 SU in the 2nd round, but 13-13 ATS, and they’re 46-23 SU and 39-30 ATS (56.5 percent) overall. Home teams 19-7 SU and 18-8 ATS this round, 43-26 SU but just 36-33 ATS. The zig-zag dipped to 14-8 ATS in the round, 30-27 ATS overall. Unders led 16-10 in the round, 43-26 (62.3 percent) overall.

NHL: Faves (on 13-2 run the last 5 nights) are 33-18 SU in the playoffs. Home teams lead 32-19. The zig-zag went 1-1 Sunday (win by Flames but loss by Penguins), but still 24-19 SU overall. Overs finished the 1st round at 31-18-2 (63.3 percent), 23-10-2 (69.7 percent) in the last 10 days after an 8-8 start.

Tuesday’s Takes

Celtics + 2 at Heat: We gave this out Sunday night’s “The Lookahead” show and repeated it here yesterday. In Game 1, the Heat will be without Kyle Lowry while the Celtics are hoping to have Marcus Smart, but either way we have the Celtics as the better overall team (though we will likely be on the underdog throughout the series) and don’t see it as a detriment that they were extended to a 7-game series by the Bucks as these players are used to playing every other night this time of year. We also already have the Mavericks + 5.5 at the Warriors in Wednesday’s Western Conference opener.

Blues + 195 at Avalanche: Rest or rust? That’s the question facing the Avalanche, the only team to pull off a first-round sweep. I think it’s worth a shot to take the Blues at nearly 2-1 as we’ve all seen how St. Louis goalie Jordan Binnington can step up in the playoffs and how he plays will likely decide this series.

Good luck today (and every day!).

 

 

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