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Tuley's Takes Today: Monday recap, updated betting stats, Tuesday best bets 5/10

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN senior reporter) 

May 10, 2022 04:53 AM
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Monday was a day spent doing some errands while frankly also taking some naps to catch up some sleep after burning the midnight oil the past week with Kentucky Derby coverage added to our regular daily duties this time of the year with the NBA and NHL playoffs, plus daily baseball.

But it turned out to be an even more productive (and lucrative day) as we swept our NBA underdog plays as the Celtics, our Best Bet of the day, rallied to beat the Bucks 116-108 as 1.5-point dogs and then the Grizzlies held to cover in a 101-98 loss at the Warriors without Jo Morant.

The win by the Celtics improved our record to 51-34-1 ATS (back to 60 percent) the past 86 days (that’s 12-plus weeks since starting our run with the Bengals + 4.5 on Super Sunday).

We split our two MLB play as the Angels -120 routed the Rays 11-3 as an anti-swagger play against the Rays, but we lost just as badly with the Mariners -115 in a 9-0 loss to the Phillies as a swagger play. We went 2-1 with our NHL suggested play (losing a unit as we just bet them in a parlay) as the Panthers and Flames won but the Rangers lost.

But, again, it was nice to return to winning our best bets of the night.

Let’s recap the rest of Monday’s betting results and then try to sift out the best plays from our Tuesday action.

Monday’s recaps

NBA: Warriors (-9.5) rallied to beat Grizzlies 101-98 to take 3-1 lead in their series, but did NOT cover (game stayed Under betting total of 222.5 points). Earlier, the Celtics (+ 1.5) rallied to upset Bucks 116-108 and even their series at 2-2 (game went Over 213). So, faves/dogs and home/road teams split 1-1 SU on the night, but road teams/dogs swept 2-0 ATS while Over/Unders split 1-1.

More NBA: Faves are 12-4 SU this round but only 9-7 ATS. Faves are now 42-17 SU and 35-24 ATS (59.3 percent) overall. Home teams are 13-3 SU and 12-4 ATS this round, and also lead 37-22 SU but just 30-29 ATS. The zig-zag went 2-0 ATS (Celtics and Grizzlies both covered) on the night, improved to 7-5 ATS in the round and 23-24 ATS overall. Unders are 9-7 in the round, 36-23 (61 percent) overall.

NHL: Faves went 3-1 with the upset by the Penguins (+ 100 in 7-2 rout of the Rangers to take a 3-1 lead in their series). The Panthers (-175) beat Capitals 3-2 in OT and the Flames (-155) beat Stars 4-1 to even both of those series at 2-2 while the Avalanche (-245) beat the Predators 5-3 to complete a 4-0 sweep. Road teams went 3-1 on the night while Over/Unders split 2-2.

More NHL: Faves went 3-1 to improve to just 18-14 SU so far in the playoffs (as they were just 15-13 entering the night). Home teams (all lower-seeded teams in Game 4s of their series) went 1-3 to dip to 19-13 overall. The zig-zag (not usually used as much in NHL playoffs) split 2-2 but is still off to a strong start at 15-9 overall (15-6 outside of the Avalanche’s sweep of the Predators). Overs lead 20-12 (12-4 the last 4 days after an 8-8 start).

MLB: Dogs went 5-4 Monday with the Marlins-Diamondbacks and Phillies-Mariners both closing pick-'em. The upsets were by the Pirates (+ 200 vs. Dodgers), Reds (+ 156 vs. Brewers), Guardians (+ 168 at White Sox); Cubs (+ 148 at Padres) and A's (+ 105 at Tigers). Home teams went 7-4 on the day while Unders led 6-5.

More MLB: Faves still lead 265-159 SU (62.5 percent) on the season with 10 games closing pick-'em (faves usually win closer to 59 percent SU, so faves are still ahead of that pace. Home teams improved to 228-206. Unders lead 229-185-20 (55.3 percent) after being 60 percent just 2 weeks ago.

Tuesday’s Takes

Mavericks + 6 at Suns: We’ve debated whether to use the Mavs as our Best Bet for Tuesday. For one thing, the Suns covered Games 1 and 2 in the series before the Mavs won Games 3 and 4 in Dallas, plus the Suns are actually in the zig-zag role after losing Game 4. However, I just can’t get past the feeling that with the series tied at 2-2 that it shows this spread shouldn’t be this high. Luka Doncic is still the best player in this series in our opinion, but other Mavs are stepping up, too, so I expect this pivotal Game 5 comes down to the wire and they at least get the ATS cover if not the outright upset. I’m passing on the 76ers in their Game 5 at the Heat.

A’s pick-’em or -105 vs. Tigers: We have a couple of MLB swagger/anti-swagger to choose from Tuesday, but we’re using this as our most likely winner. The A’s snapped their 9-game losing streak on Monday against an equally bad Detroit team to get some swagger back. So, we’re backing them in Game 1 of Tuesday’s doubleheader at 1:10 p.m. ET/10:10 a.m. PT (with Frankie Montas vs. Tarik Skubal). The A’s are actually the home team in this game even though it’s being played in Detroit, which is fine as the A’s don’t have any home-field advantage back in Oakland. With the Dodgers and White Sox both having their 6-game winning streaks snapped on Monday, we’re fading them as anti-swagger plays with the Pirates + 200 (or + 1.5 + 110) vs. the Pirates and the Guardians + 160 (pr + 1.5 -140) at the White Sox.

NHL: We don’t like any of the road underdogs in the four Game 5s on Tuesday, so we’ll probably just do a small four-team ML parlay on the higher-seeded favorites (Hurricanes, Maple Leafs, Wild and Oilers). A sweep by the favorites should return better than 6-1.

Good luck today (and every day!).

 

 

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