Tuley's Takes Today: Monday recap, updated ATS stats, Tuesday Best Bets 5/31

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN senior reporter) 

May 31, 2022 06:13 AM
USATSI_18055108

Monday was a pretty uneventful day in the Tuley’s Takes home office as our family spent it in our own rooms on our electronics. We also used the free time to start cleaning up the house for our middle daughter Peyton’s high school graduation party this upcoming Saturday.

Fortunately, we continued to clean up with our Best Bets as we won with the Diamondbacks + 100 vs. Braves as Zac Gallen got back on track and the D-backs won 6-2, and then added another winner with the Rangers + 130 at Hurricanes as they broke the home-team trend (ironically, also by a 6-2 score) to advance to the Stanley Cup semifinals.

We went 3-1 with our top plays of the day over the holiday weekend (Friday through Monday) and 8-2 ATS overall with our picks here.

Let’s recap the rest of Monday’s betting results and try to keep the good times rolling on Tuesday.

Monday’s recaps

NHL: Rangers beat Hurricanes 6-2 Monday night in the decisive Game 7 of their 2nd-round series (the game went Over the betting total of 5.5 goals). This was the only game won by the road team in this series. Hurricanes also failed in the zig-zag role after also losing Game 6.

More NHL: Faves finished 14-8 in 2nd round and still lead 47-26 overall. Home teams finished just 12-10 in the round, 44-29 overall. The zig-zag teams dropped to 8-10 in round, but still 32-29 overall. Unders went 13-9 in round, but Overs lead 40-31-2 (56.3 percent) overall.

MLB: Faves went 7-6 Monday with the biggest upsets by the Pirates (+ 290 in 6-5 win at Dodgers late Monday), Orioles (+ 150 in 10-0 shutout at Red Sox) and Rockies (+ 132 in 7-1 win vs. Marlins). Home teams went 7-6. Overs went 6-5-2 with pushes in SD-STL (9) and BAL-BOS (10).

More MLB: Faves lead 427-280 SU (60.4 percent) on season with 14 games closing pick-'em (faves usually win about 59 percent, so faves ahead of that pace). Home teams lead just 370-351 (51.3 percent, usually closer to 54 percent). Unders dipped to 362-321-38 (53 percent), way down from 60 percent a little over a month ago.

Tuesday’s Takes

Oilers-Avalanche Under 6.5 goals + 115: Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals has an Over/Under of 6.5 goals and it seems like everyone is jumping on the Over (82 percent of the money on the Over, according to the VSiN Betting Splits page, at DraftKings, our parent company). We believe this is partly because the Oilers were 4-1 with the Over in their 2nd-round series, plus the Avalanche are considered a popular Over team (though they were just 3-3 in the previous round). DraftKings and William Hill books have even gone to Over/Under 7 goals. However, we believe the public has this wrong. While both teams are certainly capable of piling up goals, we think this will be more of a defensive series. The Under was 3-2 in the teams’ meetings this season. The last meeting was an Over, but that was late in the regular season with the Oilers trying to secure a playoff spot and the Avalanche pretty much playing out the string. This should be more of a “playoff atmosphere” where we lean to the Under.

MLB dogs: We’ve been doing well lately by being selective. The two dogs we like on Tuesday are the Giants + 114 Jakob Junis (2-1, 2.78 ERA, 0.95 WHIP) at the slumping Phillies and Padres + 115 (Blake Snell vs. Adam Wainwright) at the Cardinals.

Good luck today (and every day!).

 

 

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