For yours truly, Dave Tuley, Monday was a day spent mostly napping as I’m shaking a post-vacation cold/sore throat (tested negative for COVID, so that’s good). It’s so true that you often need a vacation to recover from a vacation, right? However, I’m happy to be back in the Tuley’s Takes home office and waiting the day out in advance of the Home Run Derby.
We lost our Best Bet on Pete Alonso (available at + 200 during the day) as he only made it to the second round. We also lost a small bet on Albert Pujols at 27-1, but salvaged the night as he beat No. 1 seed Kyle Schwarber in the first round at + 270 (available at + 300 at some books on Monday).
We knew resuming this daily column during the All-Star Break would have some short editions, so let’s recap Monday’s major betting result and look for the best way to play Monday’s actual All-Star Game.
Nationals' Juan Soto upset the Mariners' Julio "J-Rod" Rodriguez in the final round of the #MLB #HomeRunDerby on Monday night at Dodgers Stadium: ViewFromVegas is Soto was + 440 pre-contest (lower than Rodriguez's + 800) but + 265 in the final vs. the rookie phenom. Soto was favored -210 vs. Jose Ramirez and -550 vs. Albert Pujols in his victories in the first two rounds, but wasn't as dominant as Gonzalez, who hit 30-plus homers in each of his first two rounds to move into the favorite's role.
ICYMI: MLB faves are 816-544 SU (60 percent) at the All-Star Break with 23 games closing pick-'em (faves usually win around 59 percent, so they’re still ahead of the pace but the gap has been narrowing as it was closer to 61-62 percent for a good portion of the early season). Home teams lead just 720-663 (52.1 percent, but usually closer to 54 percent). Unders lead 686-631-64 (52.1 percent).
All-Star Game Over 8 + 105 (or Over 7.5 -115): If you’ve been betting this annual exhibition in recent years (though it was skipped in 2020 due to the season starting late due to the pandemic),the way to go has been the American League and Under as the AL is 15-3 since the tie game in 2002 and the Under is on a 12-3 run the last 15 games. I’m not willing to fade the AL (in fact, if you’re taking the AL at around EVEN money, I’m not going to talk you out of it), but I am going to fade the Under trend by going the low total of 8 runs (note: books like BetMGM and VSiN’s parent company, DraftKings, are dealing Over 7.5 -115 if you want to get a win instead of a push if it lands on exactly 8. The books know most bettors are looking to follow such a well-known trend, so I feel the total has been set a little low for this much offensive talent. Of course, the best pitchers are there, too, but the ball seemed to be traveling just fine at Dodgers Stadium on Monday night so we expect some more offensive fireworks. I’m already looking forward to the Angels’ Shohei Ohtani facing off against the Dodgers’ Clayton Kershaw in L.A. to lead off the game. I wouldn’t be surprised if Ohtani goes deep in that first at-bat (I’ll be shopping around for that prop on Tuesday).
Good luck today (and every day!).