Tuley's Takes Today: Monday recap, NFL wild-card betting stats, Tuesday pick (1/18)

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN.com senior reporter) 

January 18, 2022 04:44 AM
Panthers_celebrate_goal

Monday wrapped up NFL wild-card weekend and we were more than a little bummed in the Tuley’s Takes home office as we lost our best bet of the day on the Cardinals.

There was actually very little for underdog bettors to be happy about as favorites went 5-1 SU and ATS in the wild-card round with very few chances to even get back-door covers as most of the games were blowouts. As we wrote in yesterday’s editions, at least we managed to diversify our portfolio enough by passing on the Raiders (we won with the Under in that game) and Eagles (we won our top teaser play of the weekend with the Buccaneers -1.5/49ers + 9) to cut or losses and fare better than expected on such a chalky weekend.

We’ll turn our attention to the divisional playoffs, but first let’s recap the rest of Monday’s betting action – including an update of the NFL lines – and then try to find a winner from Tuesday’s betting menu. 

Monday’s recaps

NFL: Rams routed the Cardinals 34-11 to wrap up wild-card weekend, easily covering as 3.5-point home favorites while the game stayed Under the closing total of 49 points. Faves and home teams (all the same this past weekend) went 5-1 SU and ATS in the wild-card round with the only upset by the 49ers over the Cowboys. Unders went 4-2. 

More NFL playoffs: Buccaneers opened -2.5/-3 (a mix of both) vs. the Rams in the divisional playoffs with an Over/Under of 48.5. Here are the updated lines of the other 3 games next weekend (all of which were posted after Sunday’s games): Titans -3/-3.5 vs. the Bengals (O/U 47), Packers -5.5 vs. the 49ers (O/U 47.5) and Chiefs between -1.5 and -2.5 vs. the Bills (O/U 55).

NBA: Faves went 8-4 SU and 7-5 ATS with the difference being the Thunder (+ 11.5) covering in a 104-102 loss at the Mavericks. Upsets were by the Hornets (+ 3 at Knicks), Wizards (+ 1.5 vs. 76ers), Hawks (+ 5.5 vs. Bucks) and Lakers (+ 5.5 vs. Jazz). Unders went 9-2-1.

NHL: Faves went 6-1 on Monday with Penguins-Golden Knights closing pick-'em in a game in which the Penguins rallied from a 3-0 first-period deficit to win 5-3. The lone upset was by the Sharks (smallest of dogs at -105 in 6-2 rout of the Kings). Overs went 5-3.

CBB: No. 4 Purdue outlasted No. 17 Illinois 96-88 in double OT in a game involving the only two Top 25 teams in action on Monday night, but it was an upset as the Boilermakers closed as 1.5-point road underdogs and + 105 on the money line. The game flew Over the betting total of 147 thanks to the extra time after being tied 69-69 at the end of regulation.

Tuesday’s Take

Panthers-Flames First-Period Over 1.5 -140: Monday’s obvious NHL First-Period Over play was on the Wild-Avalanche game (Colorado led 2-0 after the first 20 minutes), but again hopefully you were able to get 1P Over 1.5 like I saw at Station Casinos here in Vegas or some offshore books, but most books were dealing 1P Over 2. The other potential plays – Capitals-Blue and Penguins-Golden Knights, though the Penguins have been more of a 1P Under teams – both flew Over with 3 and 4 goals, respectively. So, we’ll continue with these, but again shop around for the best line you can.

I’m not too thrilled with Tuesday’s betting menu with only 2 NBA games (and neither dog attractive with the Knicks and Pistons), so let’s go with the NHL 1P Over 1.5 play in the Panthers-Flames game as it’s low enough for me at -140 to bet it without needing to include it in a parlay. The Panthers are 26-12 with 1P Overs this season, according to @PSUOtto on Twitter, and on an 8-game cover streak. The Flames are just 15-18, but they combined to go 41-30 (57.7 percent) which is right around the hit rate we need for -140 (58.3 percent), with the Panthers’ recent form being the tiebreaker.

Good luck today (and every day!).

 

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