Tuley's Takes Today: Monday recap, NFL betting stats, Tuesday best bet (12/14)

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN.com senior reporter) 

December 14, 2021 05:04 AM
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Somehow, someway, we ended up having a winning weekend here in the Tuley’s Takes home office.

Even with the Rams’ 30-23 upset of the Cardinals on Monday Night Football, favorites went 11-3 ATS in NFL Week 14 and we were 1-4 ATS with our NFL best bets, but we swept our teaser recommendations in Point Spread Weekly and here in this column. Our biggest bet was a two-team, 6-point teaser with the Ravens + 8.5 and the Bengals + 7.5 (we admittedly lucked out on both legs!) but then also hit our combinations using our recommended plays on the Seahawks -1.5 and Rams + 8.5 – and, for good measure since we know everyone doesn’t follow along with our teaser plays and was looking for a bet on Monday Night Football – we added a Rams + 8.5/Over 45 in yesterday’s column. We didn’t even have to sweat out the end-of-game drama that bettors on Over 51 for the game had to go through as we were already assured of hitting our teasers.

Let’s recap Monday’s betting results, including an update of the Circa Sports Million and SuperContest leaderboards, before trying to find a best bet for Tuesday.

Monday’s recaps

NFL: Rams held off the Cardinals 30-23 on Monday Night Football to wrap up NFL Week 14. The Rams closed as 3-point road underdogs and + 145 on the money line. The game went Over the betting total of 51 points as the Cardinals, trailing by 10 at 30-20, settled for a late FG to get within one score and then actually recovered the ensuing onside kick, but then was unable to even get off a Hail Mary pass before time expired. Favorites still dominated at 12-2 SU and 11-3 ATS in Week 14, home teams led 8-6 SU but only split 7-7 ATS while Overs went 10-4, including 3-0 in primetime games.

More NFL: Faves are 124-80-1 SU on the season with 3 games closing pick-'em, but dogs lead 109-95-1 ATS (53.4 percent). Road teams improved to 105-99-1 SU with 3 neutral-site games and also lead 116-88-1 ATS (56.9 percent). Unders lead 113-93-2 (54.9 percent) while primetime Unders drop to 22-19-1.

NBA: Faves went 6-3 SU and 5-4 ATS on Monday with the Pacers (+ 4) covering in their 102-100 loss vs. the Warriors. The 3 upsets were by the Rockets (+ 10 at the Hawks), Celtics (+ 1 vs. the Bucks) and Clippers (+ 3.5 vs. the Suns). Unders went 5-4 on the night and still lead 221-186-6 (54.3 percent) on the season.

NHL: There were no NHL games on Monday night as the Flames-Blackhawks game was postponed due to a COVID-19 outbreak in the Calgary organization, including 6 players.

Contest Corner

HANNIBAL BARCA-1 went 5-0 to take sole possession of 1st place of 

Circa Sports Million at 51-19 (72.9 percent). Believe it or not, HANNIBAL BARCA-2 is also in sole possession of 2nd at 50-20 (71.4 percent). Durbify-1 and Durbify-2 also both went 5-0 and moved into a 3-way tie for 3rd place with Mad Russian at 49-21 (70 percent). 

Circa Sports Million Top 5 Most-Selected Teams finished 1-4 in NFL Week 14 (dropping to 36-34 on season) after the loss by the Cardinals -2.5 on Monday Night Football. The lone win was on the Ravens + 3, while other losses were on Football Team + 4.5, Bills + 3.5 and Bengals + 1.5.

NOMSNAIGANSKK is the new leader of the SuperContest at 47-22-1 (68.1 percent) with half-point back in 2nd is LITOFSKY CLAN at 46-22-2 (67.6 percent). SuperContest Gold leader CALABASAS WISE GUY went 4-1 to improve to 46-22-2 (67.6 percent) and open up a 2.5-point lead on THE PROGNASTICATOR.

SuperContest Top 5 went 1-4 in NFL Week 14 (31-38-1 on season) with Cardinals -2.5 losing on Monday Night Football. The lone win was on Broncos -8.5; losses on Bills + 3.5, Browns -2.5 and Football Team + 4. SuperContest Gold Top 5 went 2-3 (dropping to 38-33-2).

ICYMI on Sunday: None of the 23 live entries in Circa Survivor were eliminated in NFL Week 14 (Week 15 of the contest, including "Thanksgiving Week"). The Broncos (9), Chargers (6), Titans (4), Seahawks (2), Saints (1) and Packers (1) all won for Survivors as they move onto Week 15.

Tuesday’s Take

First-Period Over round-robin with Senators-Panthers Over 2 + 2, Maple Leafs-Oilers Over 2 %plussign5 and Rangers-Avalanche Over 1.5 -145: Hope this isn’t too complicated for most readers, but we’re going Over in the First Period for these three NHL games. Basically, we break even if we go 1-1-1, make a little money by going 2-1 and cash around 4-1 if we go 3-0. We like it even better if you can get Over 1.5 instead of 2 (as it could turn a push into a win), Senators-Panthers are a combined 27-25 in First-Period Overs this season, Maple Leafs-Oilers a combined 32-24 and Rangers-Avalanche a combined 27-24 but also like these because the game totals are high at 6 and 6,5 goals.

Good luck today (and every day!).

 

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