Tuley's Takes Today: Monday recap, Contest Corner, Tuesday pick (11/23)

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN.com senior reporter) 

November 23, 2021 04:31 AM
Dylan_McDuffie

We were a little disappointed to end the weekend with a loss on the Giants on Monday Night Football in the Tuley’s Take home office.

It was frustrating to watch the Giants stay close as we expected, tying the game at 10-10 in the second quarter but then gradually have the Buccaneers pull away to win and cover. However, we don’t regret it as it’s the same sort of underdog play that’s been doing so well this season.

But you can’t win ‘em all (no matter how hard we try!).

It’s a busy week with all our deadlines pushed early because of Thanksgiving, so let’s get right to our recaps of Monday’s action, including an update of the leaderboards at Circa and the Westgate. I’ll then wrap up with my best bet for Tuesday, as I’ll stick to the gridiron.

Monday’s recaps

NFL: Buccaneers (10.5-point home favorites) beat Giants 30-10 on Monday Night Football to wrap up NFL Week 11. The game stayed Under the betting total of 50 points. Faves went 10-5 SU and 8-7 ATS in Week 11 (Lions and Steelers covered in SU losses to account for the difference). The upsets were by the Colts, Washington Football Team, Texans, Vikings and Cardinals. Road teams went 9-6 SU and 11-4 ATS despite the Bucs’ home win and cover. Unders went 10-5.

More NFL: Faves lead 96-65-1 SU on season with 3 games closing pick-'em, but dogs still lead 92-69-1 ATS (57.1 percent). Road teams lead 85-76-1 SU with 3 neutral-site games and 96-65-1 ATS (59.6 percent) overall. Unders lead 92-71-2 (56.4 percent) while primetime Over/Unders (Thursday, Sunday and Monday night games) are back to .500 at 16-16-1.

NBA: Faves went 6-4 SU, but dogs led 7-3 ATS. Upsets were by the Hornets (+ 4.5 at Wizards), Pacers (+ 1.5 at Bulls), Grizzlies (+ 11 at Jazz) and 76ers (+ 5 at Kings). The Cavaliers (+ 5.5), Thunder (+ 13.5) and Spurs (+ 5.5) covered in SU losses. Unders went 6-4 Monday and lead 154-106-3 (59.2 percent) on the season.

CBB: Cincinnati (+ 10, + 400 money line) upset No. 14 Illinois 71-51 after trailing by 15 points early in the Hall of Fame Classic in Kansas City, Mo. Ohio State (+ 2.5, + 120 ML) pulled a smaller upset in a 79-76 win vs. No. 21 Seton Hall at the Fort Myers Classic in Florida.

NHL: Faves went 4-2 with upsets by the Penguins (+ 100 in 3-1 win at Jets) and Sharks (+ 135 in 2-1 win vs. Hurricanes). The Blue Jackets (-125 at Sabres), Blues (-150 vs. Golden Knights, Predators (-140 vs. Ducks) and Avalanche (-320 vs. Senators) won as chalk. Over/Unders split 3-3. 

Contest Corner

Circa Survivor has 134 live entries heading into "Thanksgiving Week" after 22 survived with the Buccaneers on Monday Night Football. In Week 11, 38 were eliminated with the Titans' 22-13 loss to the Texans and 1 by the Panthers' 27-21 loss to Washington after 173 were alive entering the week.

In Circa Sports Million III, JJarvis117 went 4-1 in Week 11 to improve to 42-13 (76.4 percent) and take a 1-point lead over Price Check-3, who went 3-2 to dip to 41-14 (74.5 percent). FJ1925 is another half-point back in 3rd at 40-14-1 (74.1 percent).

SuperContest has co-leaders as FREE TIM TEBOW went 5-0 in NFL Week 11 to improve to 37-16-2 (69.8 percent) and tie PACKDG (38-17, 69.1 percent) for the lead with 38 points (1 point per win, 0.5 per push). SuperContest Gold’s new leader is CALABASAS WISE GUY at 36-17-2 (67.9 percent).

Tuesday’s Take

Buffalo + 6.5 at Ball State: My alma mater, Northern Illinois, is also a 3.5-point dog in Tuesday night #MACtion, but the Huskies have already clinched the MAC West and are heading to the MAC Championship Game. I’m not comfortable taking them with that lack of motivation while Western Michigan is 6-5 and trying to get a better bowl. Instead, I’ll take Buffalo plus the points at Ball State. Like in most MAC games, the only reason I need to take the dog is that these teams are pretty evenly matched talent-wise and it should be a close game, so the points could come in handy. Buffalo RB Dylan McDuffie (982 rushing yards, 11 TDs) should go over the 1,000-yard mark and keep the Bulls in the game. Ball State isn’t as good as it was last year and its defense allows 28.6 points per game, so I don’t see why the Cardinals are favored by nearly a touchdown. 

Good luck today (and every day!).

 

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