Tuley's Takes Today: Monday recap, Contest Corner, Tuesday pick (10/26)

By Dave Tuley  (VSiN.com senior reporter) 

October 26, 2021 06:35 AM
Astros_AL_pennant

 

We were already having a great weekend in the Tuley’s Takes home office, but it’s always great to end the “weekend” with a winner on Monday Night Football and we did just that with the Seahawks covering as between 4.5- to 5.5-point home underdogs in their 13-10 loss to to the Saints.

It was ugly, but we’ll take it as we closed NFL Week 7 at 5-1 ATS with our best bets posted in “Point Spread Weekly” and updated in this daily version of that column (plus we nailed our limited teaser options for the week).

Let’s get to the general betting recaps from Monday night’s action, and then I’ll give my “Take” on the World Series, which opens with Game 1 on Tuesday night.

Monday’s recaps

NFL: Saints beat the Seahawks 13-10 on Monday Night Football to wrap up NFL Week 7, but the Saints did NOT cover after closing as 5.5-point road favorites. The game stayed way Under the betting total of 42 points in inclement weather. Note: primetime Overs (which started the season at 6-0 and had a lot of people jumping on the bandwagon) went 1-2 this weekend and dropped to 12-8-1 on the season, meaning that they’re actually below .500 at 6-8-1 since that hot start.

More NFL: Faves went 8-4 SU in Week 7 with 1 pick-'em (Eagles at Raiders), but only split 6-6 ATS. Home teams also went 8-5 SU and ATS while Unders also led 8-5. On the season, faves are 65-39 SU (3 PKs), but dogs lead 56-48 ATS (53.8 percent). Despite home teams bouncing back a little this weekend, road teams still lead 55-49 SU (3 neutral-site games: Packers-Saints in Week 1, plus 2 London games) and 58-46 ATS (55.8 percent). Unders lead 58-47-2 (55.2 percent). 

NBA: Favorites went 7-2 SU and ATS on Monday with the only upsets by the Pelicans (+ 5.5 at Timberwolves) and Cavaliers (+ 9.5 at Nuggets). Road faves went 3-0 SU and ATS as the Bucks (-1.5 at Pacers), Celtics (-2 at Hornets) and Bulls (-2 at Raptors) all covered. Unders went 6-3. 

NHL: Favorites went 4-3 Monday with upsets by the Sabres (+ 150 in 5-1 rout vs. Lightning), Flames (+ 125 in 5-1 rout at Rangers) and Blue Jackets (+ 110 in 4-1 win vs. Stars). Over/Unders split 3-3-1 with the push in the Lightning-Sabres (6) game.

Contest Corner

Circa Sports Million is still led by HANNIBAL BARCA at 29-6 (82.9 percent) after he went 4-1 in Week 7. OLD SCHOOL HUSTLERSA and OTBNCC are a game and a half back, tied for 2nd place at 27-7-1. HANNIBAL BARCA also has 2 more entries that are part of an 8-way tie for 4th place at 27-8.

CircaSurvivor (which had 19 survive with the Saints on MNF) still has 2,131 live entries thru 7 weeks after another week of minimal eliminations: 66 exited with Ravens, 14 on Panthers, 6 on 49ers, 2 on Broncos, 2 on Chiefs, 1 on Dolphins and 2 with no pick.

SuperContest has a new leader in WOLFGANG, who went 4-1 in Week 7 to improve to 26-8-1 (76.5 percent) for 26.5 points as SC players receive 1 point per win and 0.5 per push. THE DOGERS, GAMBLING RATS and BREAK DOWN THE WALLS are tied for 2nd place with 26 points. SuperContestGold also has a new leader in BROOKLYN DODGERS, who went 5-0 in Week 7 to improve to 24-10-1 (70.6 percent) in the $5,000 winner-take-all version of the SuperContest.

Tuesday’s Take

Astros (-1.5 + 155) vs. Braves: I have a friend named Joe who asked me “Who do you like to win the World Series?” I hesitated to answer because in my heart of hearts I don’t believe the Astros were punished enough for the whole sign-stealing/garbage-can banging scandal and don’t deserve another title for them and their fans. However, I bet with my head and not my heart, so I had to explain to Joe (I'm sure we all have friends who are non-bettors) that while I “like” the Braves, I’m betting on the Astros. Their offense (which averages an MLB-best 5.41 runs per game, just keeps coming at you. Now, regular readers know I don’t want to lay the -140 series price or the -130 in Game 1, so I’m basically turning a favorite into an underdog by betting the Astros on the run line Tuesday night. They have to win by 2 runs to win the bet -- no small feat as the Braves are an easy team to like -- but I’m confident Dusty Baker's lineup will continue hitting and coast in Game 1 behind Framber Valdez.

Good luck today (and every day!).

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